Tuesday, June 28, 2011

我的分享集30.06.2011-这个7月/围城,我抛售手上所有股票!


我的分享集30.06.2011-这个7/围城,我抛售手上所有股票 

30.06.2011,我很少会在自己的部落格谈到政治的课题,不过股票还有国家经济却又和政治有着藕断丝连的关系。已经过了2011的大半年了,看看马来西亚的经济的确有好转的现象,可惜人家说好景不长。伴随而来的是让人担忧的通货膨胀。最近公布的数据都将马来西亚的通货膨胀介于3%左右,很多坊间都相信数据是被有心人所操控了,真正的可能要比中国好些许而已,大概靠近5%
马来西亚自新的第6任首相上位以来就以国家未来即将会破产的言论来间接恐吓人民要开始节制,从而就开始了一链的经济补贴削减运动。这个经济补贴削减运动的理由很简单,目前很多马来西亚人的生活很浪费(这个身为马来西亚人的我都有点认同),糖食用过量导致肥胖,水也是毫无节制的浪费。伴随这个补贴削减后,是非常恐怖的高通货膨胀。原因很简单,糖1KG20毛,可是物品就算没有用到1KG糖的也是每个单位起20毛。原本RM1.50的咖啡,现在起到RM1.70, 13%的通货膨胀,你说是高还是低?一碗面原本卖RM4.50,现在跟随补贴削减运动,运输费用起+原料起价,商家有借口将它一下起到RM6.00一碗面,多了RM1.50。你可能觉得RM1.50不算什么,不过你以比例来看就是33.33%的通货膨胀。请问马来西亚的通货膨胀严重吗?很多粉刷太平的经济学家还说马来西亚的通货膨胀还在可以控制的范围,叫人民自己开始先开源节流。单以平民的这个算法你就知道事态严重了。(抱歉在下大学学过皮毛经济学,骗不到我)
政府这轮的经济补贴削减运动注定会在未来引起反弹还有失败。因为在补贴削减的同时,它已经忘记了照顾低下收入的人群。目前马来西亚还有很多家庭收入是低于<RM2000的。在这轮通货膨胀下还有可能间接造成犯罪率增加。
前几天看报纸,看到中国温家宝总理说了一个很对的话。他以经验说通货膨胀+贪污腐化会很可能引起社会动荡和政府替换,这个自5000年前中国历史中几乎都是不变的事实。目前中国贪污腐化的问题也是十分严重,所以中国政府十分关注肃贪。再看看马来西亚,几乎两个条件都付合了(通货膨胀+贪污腐化)。在经济补贴削减运动同时,政府机构不但没有以身作则开源节流,反倒是被人爆出了几乎永不完的滥用公仆的丑闻。人民生活在水深火热中,在朝的却落得清闲。即使是在秦史皇那个年代,他的政权也只勉强的维持了10多年。

我这次写了那么多也不以是为任何人说话。就算是上一届大选我也没有投票。因为我觉得反对党的也不见得是会对人民好的一方。他们即使在得到许多州属政权后也很多弊端,林吉祥也很极端,常常得势不饶人,这不是我喜欢看到的领导人。这次709的净选盟Bersih运动其实是人民组织自发的,可惜却被胆小的在朝着冠上许多莫须有。共产党啦,社会主义啦(即Nazis/那个该死的希特勒),看来以后还会串连到Osama的恐怖组织。709的净选盟Bersih其实只要求简单的公平选举,对未来国家的进步是很有帮助的。而且他们才是真正的第3股势力,可以制衡反对党和在朝党。马来西亚不只需要2线制度,马来西亚需要的是3线制度。因为根据马来西亚的宪法,马来西亚是3权分立的!目前马来西亚有吗?有3权分立吗?宪法自独立以来已经不懂被乱修改几千次了,3权分立已经荡然无存。



在马来西亚有很多让人记忆犹新的日子,513种族暴乱,308政治海啸。709会否是另一个让人记得的日子呢?马来西亚选民会否自次有更加醒觉呢?以目前在朝的不断恐吓以内安法令扣留来看,未来的政治局面不会稳定。这个对于股票市场不是很好的东西。因为本来要投资的外资会却步,然后目前的外国基金投资人会开始撤资。所以还是7月围城,我抛售手上所有股票
Sell in Maygo away是外国的定律,我国是Sell in July, say Bye bye.              
7月围城,7月马来西亚茉莉花开!

Saturday, June 25, 2011

CSC鋼鐵出現新大股東持5.01%

(吉隆坡24日訊)CSC鋼鐵(CSCSTEL, 5094, 主板工業產品組)獲新加坡籍股東透過公開市場買進5.01%股權,而崛起成為顯著股東。

大馬交易所資料顯示,名為顏天振(譯音)的股東截至6月21日共持有該公司的1千875萬股,或相等於5.01%持股權。

CSC鋼鐵的單一最大股東為亞洲CSC鋼鐵,共持45%股權。(星洲日報/財經)
 CSC NEW SUBSTANTIAL SHAREHOLDER
22/6/2011

CSC Steel had a new substantial shareholder.
His name is Mr. Gan Thian Chin, a Singaporean whom to-date has accumulated 18,752,900shares. I believe Mr. Gan had accumulated aggresively since April last year when CSC declared 15.5 cents net dividend since his name had appeared in 2009 annual report with 900,000 shares.

Considering the share prices of CSC had been around 1.70++ to 1.90++ level, his average should be around 1.76. Mr. Gan must has huge confidence in CSC as his buying is always time with the disposal by another major shareholder. Last year it was LTAT and now Tabung haji is selling almost everyday.
Will Mr. Gan be able to absorb all the selling by Tabung Haji once CSC ex-dividend on 28/6? Hopefully he can....

Friday, June 17, 2011

我的股票Portfolio-17.06.2011BJTOTO+Supermax

Buy At Quantity Cost MktPrice MktValue Gain/Loss Gain/Loss %
Ivory 1.25 1500 1879.56 0.9200 1380.00 (499.56) -26.58%
PowerRoot 0.60 500 298.18 0.5500 275.00 (23.18) -7.77%
Melewar 0.89 1000 926.27 0.7700 770.00 (156.27) -16.87%
Supermax 3.85 200 783.24 3.9800 796.00 12.76 1.63%
Latexx 2.40 200 493.15 2.1300 426.00 (67.15) -13.62%
BJTOTO 4.28 200 870.00 4.5300 906.00 36.00 4.14%
Cash

2958.86
2958.86

Total Portfolio Value

8209.26
7511.86 (697.40) -8.50%





前几天我建议买入BJTOTO,看来这个建议不错。今天看到有人开始在RM4.50以上套利了。目前我还是会按兵不动,看看它会否会回到前几年的RM5.00.买入的人可能是基金经理,因为目前博采股很少如它办给于高股息回报的。而且向来稳定的派息是很多人喜欢它的原因。其实BJTOTO如果不是因为失去4Djackpot这个市场,当初也很少退到RM4.1-4.20,所以买入的可以长期持有吧。赚股息就开心了。

最近IVORY继续慢慢探低。觉得可以再买入少许。至于为何,我的另外一个penny stock的blog会进行详细的分析,敬请期待。

Wednesday, June 15, 2011

我的股票分析-PowerRoot.

MAA and Melewar doesn't seems to be a good speculation stock anymore. Ignore with forever.
Today I am going to analyst here my all time favorite consumer stocks-Power Root.

PowerRoot I start my analysis starting from year 2008.

PowerRoot 2008-2011


Financial Year/Feb 2008 2009 2010 2011
ROIC
Sales(m) 178.48 138.15 153.11 182.44
EPS 0.14 0.03 0.03 0.04
Gross Profit Margin 26.69% 5.62% 8.48% 8.12%
Net Profit Margin 22.00% 7.06% 6.65% 6.69%
Free Cashflow (,000) (18.26) 2.41 20.61 -4.17
BVPS 0.66 0.65 0.64 0.60
Longterm Debts (,000) 16.87 3.07 3.25 3.64
Debts Ratio (0.92) 1.27 0.16 (0.87)
TL/E 0.22 0.17 0.17 0.23
Piotroski Test
ROA

What I look for normally when analyzing a company is the management style, it's accounting book health and finally it's dividend.
Management style wise, all the year it has been quietly building its business in local market, and recently it expand very fast. With many advertisement starting 2009, Alicafe is one of the most well known brand in Malaysia, especially with the local Malay ethnic market. And in Chinese market, it has the famous Hongkong TVB star 'Lum Fung' as its brand ambassador. A very tactical move after another competitor Super has JJ Lim from Singapore as their brand ambassador.

Product wise, it has multiple types of product to suit different person's needs especially the coffee which it stakes especially for Men-Tongkat Ali, and another for women.


Well, product aside, let's have a look at company's financial health.
From the report I gather, Net profit 2010 is RM10.18million, 2011 will be RM12.213million,
Longterm liabilities is 3.64m in 2011, total liabilities 44.83m.
Cash available as seen in balance sheet is 47.95m.
So to say, it is very healthy as longterm liabilities low, and Total liabilities/NetProfit=3.6, meaning it can pay back all liabilities in 3.6 years time using all its net profit coming years, even without using its available cash in bank.


Another important thing I look at is the dividend payout pass few years-5 years to be good.
The reason for this is simple, I think companies that are making money with ample cash left over should pay some good dividend to their shareholders provided they have no plan to expand more in coming near term. If a company make lots of money and refuses to payout good dividend and yet have a very low liabilities concern, I think shareholders should be very careful about this type of management.


Anyway, below is dividend payout by PowerRoot pass few years.


2010 0.08 14.55%
2009 0.04 7.27%
2008 0.04 7.27%
It payout quite generously last year because its sales hit beautifully. Hopefully more dividend to come in future and also 2011. But we assume lesser just to be conservative. Looking at 2008 and 2009, it still payout RM0.04 to shareholders. With current price at RM0.55, I think it is a good buy to keep for future. To look at sustainability of dividend payment of a company, look especially year 2007,2008. The reason is because recession come during that few years, if company is in healthy position, dividend normally will remain stable. Thus looking at this point, I believe the company can still support their dividends years to come. A 7% above dividend I consider very good in Malaysia stock market.

Thursday, June 2, 2011

我的网赚31.05.2011-USD23.37

May 2011网赚纪录:
Nuffnang: RM10.20
Google Adsense :USD23.37
Infolinks: USD0.74

这个月,另一个最赚钱的英文网站突然没有任何广告出现,不知道是否触犯了任何adsense 的条款,伤心的只可以看着收入一天一天少。。。。。。

上个月开始的个人成长网站
http://freepersonaldevelopment.net/  
 

我已经放弃了autoblog 方式,因为好像帮助不大。我自己开始写自己的文章,反而还得到很好的报酬。目前因为还不是很多文章,所以成绩普通,不过以后可是很好的潜能的网站,因为现在即使是几个clicks,都能够得到不错的回酬了。我自己最终的目标是每天1000 人的 visitors.

自己的第一本 e-book 算是大功告成了,目前计划未来开始售卖。target selling price =$9.99, 60+页数. 

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My Target 2011:
1.Cash out Google adsense money every month.
2.Generate 3 more websites with 800-1000 Unique visitors per day
3.Do affiliates marketing to earn more income online.
4.Sell my 1st e-book