Tuesday, September 30, 2014

深度解讀:現在我買白銀的7大原因


  來源:中國黃金網  作者:傑夫·克拉克 覃維桓/譯 

以現價買入白銀,可能會是一個改變人生的投資。
  這不僅是因為白銀的工業用途不斷增長,或者爆炸性的光伏(太陽能)需求,甚至也不是預計2014年的供應量將停滯,僅能達到2010年的水平。而在於各國政府選擇印鈔、赤字開支和不停地增加債務,已經證明世界領導者們要打破他們的習慣太難了。在這一點上,美國和世界各地其他國家的政府都如此。美聯儲和其國際央行的同行提供貨幣用於高速運轉,盡管美聯儲最近在縮減購買債券的規模,過去的行為後果並未因此而消失。由央行進行的虛擬刺激和操縱最終將導致系統性崩潰。
  當政府財政被迫進入撤退,隨之而來的危機將湧入貴金屬。當資產被視為安全的今天,債券和美元進入熊市或完全崩潰的局面將會加劇。
  這樣以來,白銀價格從目前的水平崛起,不會是10%或20%,而是兩倍、三倍或更多。
  如果通脹大幅上升,銀價到每盎司100美元不是幻想,而有著很大的可能性。黃金當然也將受益,但由於白銀的波動性較高,預計會給我們更高的回報率,像過去很多次一樣。
  最終,所有的市場修正過度。全球經濟正接近一個臨界點,我們必須在出現混亂之前,現在就對我們的投資組合做好準備,這包括擁有有意義數量的實物白銀與黃金。
  是等待一個大收獲的時候了。
  讓我們先忽略短期因素,如凈長、短倉位,交易所交易基金(ETF)周持倉的波動,或最新的期貨持倉量。這些數據經常波動,很少與白銀的價格有長期的關聯。
  我更感興趣的是可能在未來數年影響白銀的大形勢。當然,最顯著的力量就是我上面所說的:政府印鈔和赤字,這將不可避免地在世界各地許多國家導致貨幣危機,推動白銀和黃金價格到創紀錄的水平。
  在歷史上任何時候政府都沒有印過這麽多錢。在世界上沒有一種貨幣與黃金或任何其他實物相掛鉤。這一前所未有的設置意味著災難性後果,將是歷史性的,並影響我們每一個人。
  具體到銀本身,下面就是告訴我“大事將要發生”的數據……
  通脹調整後價格還有很長的路要走
  白銀潛力的線索之一是它經通貨膨脹調整後的價格。
  下面顯示的是銀價根據勞動統計局的CPI-U數據和從1980年以來CPI-U的公式調整過的銀價(調整公式已經被調整多次,以保持通脹數目盡可能地低)。

  銀價遠低於經通脹調整過的價位
現在我買白銀的7大原因
  根據當前的CPI-U的計算,2011年4月48美元的高峰只是通貨膨脹調整後1980年1月價格的不到一半。如果用1980年的公式來衡量通貨膨脹,白銀將需要達到每盎司470美元才能越過該峰值。
  我不認為白銀會漲到那麽高(至少我希望不會,因為我覺得漲到那麽高,會有太多人被犧牲),但很明顯,賠率是偏向上行,並有很大的上漲空間。
  白銀價格與生產成本
  生產商被迫降低成本,因為去年的白銀價格暴跌。有些人在這方面比別人做得更好,但還是檢查出利潤率收窄。

  銀價相對於生產成本大幅下降
現在我買白銀的7大原因
  相對於生產成本,白銀價格正處於2005年以來最低水平。請記住,現金成本在所有成本中只是一部分,而白銀價格在歷史上交易遠高於這個值(總成 本只是現在才被廣泛報道)。利潤率收縮得那麽厲害,在長期的基礎上是不可持續的,必然會影響這個行業。這也使得價格可能已經觸底,因為生產商把開支削減了 這麽多。
  大約75%的白銀是作為一種副產品被生產出來,價格取決於利潤;如果一個礦無法經營獲利或新的項目不能以低廉的價格獲得利潤,所造成的產量下降必將作為更高價格的催化劑。此外,目前大部分成本削減主要來自削減勘探預算,這將削弱未來的供應。
  低庫存
  各種實體持有銀條存貨,而美國鑄幣含銀水平是很高的。由於幾十年來用於流通的所有美國硬幣改為用基本金屬鑄造了,因此今日對高庫存的需要降低了。但是這個圖表顯示的是庫存是多麽少。

  白銀大多存放在ETF基金手裏
現在我買白銀的7大原因
  你可以看到當前庫存與歷史相比是多麽低,大部分被交易所交易產品持有。這一點很重要,因為這些投資者自2005年以來就是凈買家,因此一直保持 這些金屬遠離市場。當前庫存剩余量為2.41億盎司,只有一年供應的25%,而在1990年,相當於當前供應的大約8倍。如果需求突然暴增,這些需求無法 通過現有庫存滿足。事實上,交易所交易產品(ETP)的投資者可能讓更多的金屬離開了市場(以下簡稱“隱含的未報告的庫存量”,是指世界各地的私人和其他 未報告的存量,另一個驚人的數量較少)。
  如果投資需求重復2005年到2009年的激增,這將使供應方不能出現一點閃失。
  熊市結束
  60年來的熊市走到底的市場信號表明,我們的熊市即將耗盡。黑線代表銀價自2011年4月到2014年8月8日的下降。

  白銀熊市結束了?
從歷史記錄來看,現在購買白銀風險較低。
從歷史記錄來看,現在購買白銀風險較低。
  相對於其他商品便宜
  以下是白銀價格與其他貴金屬和最常見的基本金屬的價格對比。
只有鎳離歷史最高價更遠。
只有鎳離歷史最高價更遠。
  主流資金低參與
  白銀潛力另一個指標是占全球金融財富的比例與白銀在1980年創下50美元價格時所占的百分比相比較。

  白銀在全球金融財富中所占的比例很小
盡管對實物金屬持續強勁的需求,目前白銀只占世界金融財富的0.01%。這是1980年水平的二十五分之一。即使與我們在2011年看到的那個價格大殺跌相比,也簡直是小巫見大巫。
  盡管對實物金屬持續強勁的需求,目前白銀只占世界金融財富的0.01%。這是1980年水平的二十五分之一。即使與我們在2011年看到的那個價格大殺跌相比,也簡直是小巫見大巫。
  還有巨大的空間使白銀成為主流投資組合的更大部分。
  關註中國!
  正在從西方轉移到東方的,不只是黃金……

  中國的白銀期貨成交量在爆炸
現在我買白銀的7大原因
  上海期貨交易所已經超過了紐約商品交易所,成為全球最大的白銀期貨交易所。事實上,去年上海期貨交易所占了全部成交量的48.6%。同時,紐約商品交易所期貨在急劇下降,從近在2001年93.4%的市場份額,下降到今天的不到一半。
  所有交易導致了交易所白銀庫存銳減。由於在COMEX大多數銀(金)的合同是以現金支付,而多數在上海交易所的合約用實物金屬結算。這導致了銀庫存的巨大流失...

  上海交易所白銀庫存位於歷史低位
自2013年1月以來,上海期貨交易所的白銀庫存大幅減少了84%,達到創紀錄的148噸低位。如果這種趨勢持續下去,中國的交易所在不遠的將來,將遭遇嚴重的供應短缺。
自2013年1月以來,上海期貨交易所的白銀庫存大幅減少了84%,達到創紀錄的148噸低位。如果這種趨勢持續下去,中國的交易所在不遠的將來,將遭遇嚴重的供應短缺。
  中國國內白銀供應(礦山產量、進口量和回收量)有望創下歷史新高,並在今年超過2.5億盎司。相比之下,2000年還只有不到7000萬盎司。實際上幾乎沒有出口,因而無法被世界市場利用。
  中國投資者估計在2013年已購買2200萬盎司白銀,為僅次於印度的第二大金額。而在1999年為零。
  白銀應用最大的百分比增長來自中國。攝影、珠寶首飾、銀器、電子、電池、太陽能電池板、釬焊合金、生物殺滅劑的使用都在中國以比世界上任何其他國家更快的速度不斷增加。
  這些是我買入白銀的最主要原因。
  不得不承認,在未來的幾年對白銀投資者來說,可能是一個非常激動人心的時刻。
  就像黃金,我們收藏白銀將幫助我們保持生活水平,但可能更切合實際的使用,因為銀價低,可以用於少量采購。而在高通脹/美元衰敗的情況下,銀價很可能超過消費物價通脹,給我們更多的購買力保障。
  底線是,目前銀價應該被看作是一個長期的買入機會。這可能會或可能不會是我們在這個價位上在這一周期購買的最後機會,但如果你喜歡便宜貨,白銀的 “減價大甩賣!”的標誌霓虹燈已經像一個迪斯科球在閃爍。


http://gold.hexun.com.tw

Friday, September 26, 2014

Plenitude financial performance for FY ended 30 June 2014 kcchongnz

Plenitude financial performance for FY ended 30 June 2014
"If you look carefully, almost all Old Money secrets can be traced to a single source: a longer-term outlook." -- Bill Bonner

I wrote an article about Graham net current asset value (NCAV) for some property companies in i3investor a couple of weeks ago, with special emphasis on Plenitude when it was trading at RM3.27 then. Below is the link to the article:
http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/57943.jsp
Plenitude’s share price shot up to RM3.50 a couple of days later. Last two days, “Investors” went helter skelter and dumped the stocks after the release of its result showing a “plunge” of its 4th quarter 2014 profit from 50.8m to 12m. Its price closed at RM3.15 on 29th August 2014.
Here came a question on the thread of my previous article.
[hariharikais Dearest KC... I can't seem to understand why is there a massive drop in plenitude last Friday when quarterly result is ok...any comments?
30/08/2014 12:48 ]
I really didn’t know the “massive drop” you are talking about. I won’t know why the drop too as I am always very poor in predicting share price movement.
I didn’t write the article to entice anyone to buy so that I can dump my stock. To put the record straight here; I have never sold any share immediately after I wrote about it as I only wrote about stock which I think its share price is way below its intrinsic value and still has plenty of room for upside movement. I am still keeping my Plenitude since I bought it long ago. You can see that I own this stock in my portfolio since long ago. Its share price was RM1.85 nineteen months ago as shown in the link below here:
http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/44160.jsp
Was the financial results of Plenitude ended 30 June 2014 that bad? A big drop in profit, really? Does anyone see its annual result has improved from an earnings per share (EPS) from 28.8 sen to 32.5 sen this year? Does anyone see that its quality asset backing per share has also increased from RM3.37 to RM3.63, or 13%?
I still do not have any intention to sell it yet. Why? Value investors are not the ones who watch every quarter result and its hourly share price when they invest in a business. Yes, investing in the business of the company and not punting on a paper of ownership of a stock. Investing is a long-term endeavour and not a quarter-to-quarter affair.
“An investment operation is one which, upon thorough analysis, promises safety of principal and a satisfactory return. Operation not meeting these requirements are speculative” Benjamin Graham
In anyway, the investment thesis on Plenitude is in its asset based Graham net current asset value (NCAV), which has improved with the recent release of its quarterly result, if one chooses to look at.
Graham net current asset value
“Know what you own, and know why you own it.”- Peter Lynch
NCAV is the lowest form of valuation you could possibly do because it ignores everything about the business and just focuses on tangible assets.

Net Net Working Capital =
Cash and short-term investments
+ (0.75 x accounts receivable)
+ (0.5 x inventory)
- total liabilities

This is a very conservative form of valuation. For more explanation, please refer to the link below:
http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/45296.jsp

Performance of Graham NCAV stocks
Walter Schloss, a low profile role model for all aspiring value investors has used similar asset-based value investing. He is one of the most influential investors based on his 5 decade long performance from 1955, returning 20% per year, almost three times the 7% return of the S&P during the same period.  For more information of Walter Schloss, please refer to the appended link below:

http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/52280.jsp

NCAV stocks have killed the market again in recent years. From 2000 to 2012, a portfolio of NCAV stocks earned an annualized return of 18.28% vs 1.57% of S&P500 and 5.31% for the Russell2000.

One has to bear in mind that the above two examples were quantitative investing with diversified portfolios of hundreds of NCAV stocks, regardless of their business performance. Many of those business sucks and often lost money, and yet the portfolio returned fantastic alphas.

Plenitude and Graham NCAV
Based on the latest financial results ended 30th June 2014, the net tangible asset per share of Plenitude has increased to RM3.63 as shown in Table 1 in the Appendix. The NCAV of Plenitude has also increased to RM3.20 per share. This NCAV is still above the share price of Plenitude of RM3.15.

However, we have to remember that NCAV It's the lowest form of valuation just focuses on tangible assets with a discount to inventories and receivables and total omission of their fixed assets. Moreover, Plenitude has huge amount of “Land held for property development” which was mostly bought many years ago and have not been re-valued for years. The market values of these land could worth many folds their book values. Even the “Property development projects” which are taken as the book value could worth a market value much higher than the book value as evidenced from its high gross margins of 50%. Hence the NCAV of Plenitude could worth much more than what were taken from the book values.
What else Plenitude has as extras which most of those above companies of sole NCAV do not have?

Financial performance of Plenitude
Besides qualified as  Graham NCAV stock, Plenitude’s financial performance has been reasonably good every year as shown in Table 2 in the Appendix.

Margins are great with gross margin, operating margin and net profit margin at 50%, 34% and 28% respectively. Return on equity is below 10% but that is because it has a lot of cash in the balance sheet. ROE would be much higher if those excess cash is returned to shareholders, or the company uses it to engage in profitable projects.

A more appropriate metric of return on invested capital shows that the company has earned a return of 13%, higher than its cost of capitals. The company also has good cash flow and free cash flow every year without exception. Hence not only Plenitude is not a cash burner, it is a cash generator every year, consistently adding to its NCAV.

Market valuation
Table 3 in the Appendix shows the market valuation of Plenitude. At a price of RM3.15, the 2014 PE ratio is undemanding at 11, even for a normal, non-NCAV company. Its price is less than its book value of RM3.63.

Conclusion
We recollect that Plenitude’s investment thesis is based on its Graham NCAV which it fits in very well. Besides that, it has stable earnings and cash flow every year. Its land could worth a lot more than its book value. Its operation is also more efficient than many of its peers. It is hence a good long-term investment, in my opinion. Why not?

K C Chong on our National Day
(31 August 2014)

Appendix
Table 1: Graham NCAV for Plenitude
xxxxxxxxxxxxx
 
BS
Wt
Amount
Proportion
Per share 
Excess cash
 
396356
100%
396356
35%
1.47
Property development projects
 
299866
100%
299866
27%
1.11
Land held for development
 
193916
100%
193916
17%
0.72
Investment Properties
 
46629
100%
46629
4%
0.17
Receivables
 
81168
75%
60876
6%
0.23
Inventories
 
42174
50%
21087
4%
0.08
Other assets
 
74452
0%
0
7%
0.00
Total tangible asses
 
1134561
xxx
1018730
100%
xxx
Total liabilities
 
-154021
100%
-154021
xxx
-0.57
Sum
 
970659
xxx
857298
xxx
 
NTA
 
3.63
xxx
3.20
xxx
3.20
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Price
 
3.15
xxx
3.15
xxxx
 
MOS
 
12%
xxx
1%
xxxx
 

Table 2: Efficiencies
Year
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
Gross margin
50%
55%
51%
43%
36%
43%
35%
39%
38%
Operating margin
34%
43%
42%
35%
30%
37%
30%
34%
33%
Net margin
28%
37%
35%
28%
24%
28%
23%
24%
24%
ROE
8.6%
8.6%
11.4%
11.6%
8.4%
11.2%
8.7%
8.5%
9.7%
ROIC
13.1%
12.9%
17.5%
19.4%
18.9%
17.1%
12.5%
13.5%
16.3%

Table 3
Market valuation
30/08/2014
Price
$3.150
EPS
$0.325
PE ratio
9.7
Book value
3.6
Price-to-book
0.9