Tuesday, October 20, 2015

Bullshit and misleading in investing kcchongnz

 read a very interesting post this afternoon, with personal reference to specific name, together with some more interesting comments from the admirers of the author. You should be very happy this time because unlike previous articles, you have plenty of admirers and supporters now. Here the article goes.

One famous accountant KC Chong wrote a few articles that he would not buy VS because the company has too much borrowing, very poor cash flow, poor return of equity and many other accounting jargons. He even put up some complicating formulas to impress you. The following is an extract of his article:
But wait, just cool down and be rational. Think first, is V.S really a NBI at this price as described here? http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/76694.jsp
For a NBI, we look at cash. No cash comes in from the business, no talk. That is what most successful businessmen think, don’t they? Let us look at its cash flow in Table 1 below.
Table 1: Cash flow of V.S
Year              2014         2013          2012      2011        2010
CFFO            46368       19666       34111   94277       49046
Net Capital -52371   -39639      -52371     -40360   -43268
Expenses
Free cash  -6003       -19973        -6249      51009     28468
Flow
What happened to the last three years? There aren’t any cash left after spending money in capital expenses. Cash yield calculated from FCF/Price is negative, or “Not Applicable”. So how?
Unfortunately, KC Chong cannot forecast figures for the next few years. His bull shit attracted so many ignorant admirers. Currently VS is being traded above Rm 7.60 showing that KC Chong is wrong. I hope he realizes his mistake in misleading readers.”

Wow, I am a famous accountant now, but since when? I do have many practising accountants, commercial and investment bankers as course participants in my online investment courses. Yes, “many” is the word, a few tens of them I think. They are good and knowledgeable people. So please don’t undermine their knowledge and capability. But I am not an accountant. I am a civil engineer by profession which I have retired about 13 years ago. I had a satisfying and fulfilling career in engineering. Now I am a teacher, and an investor. I guide them on personal finance and investing, and at the same time, learning from them. I really enjoy my newfound hobby.
So how could I “impress” these accountants and professionals with “complicated formula”? They can teach me tons of accounting stuff, not the other way. How could I “bull shit” or “mislead” them?
You mentioned that I said I wouldn’t buy VS “because of the company has too much borrowing, very poor cash flow, poor return of equity and many other accounting jargons.”
Wait, “jargons”? Cash flow, return of equity jargons? Wow, I didn’t know these are “jargons” to you or to the true investors in the stock market. If Benjamin Graham hear that, he would be shocked and rise up from his grave!
“I have nothing to add.”- Charlie Munger
But what is wrong if I have said I wouldn’t buy VS because of its high borrowings, poor return on capital and poor cash flows and it is not a no-Brainer Investment? Or must I say that I must buy it because you have recommended it, despite of what I think is its poor cash flow?
You table above on cash flows of VS is outdated. The cash flows from operation is only 9% of its net income for 2015, and its free cash flow is a whopping negative of RM53m as shown in my latest post here:
I will not deal with this cash flow topic anymore here. There are enough articles written by me. Let us deal with this statement.
Unfortunately, KC Chong cannot forecast figures for the next few years. His bull shit attracted so many ignorant admirers. Currently VS is being traded above Rm 7.60 showing that KC Chong is wrong. I hope he realizes his mistake in misleading readers.”
Sure I cannot forecast figures for the next few years. I am not a snake oil salesman, or the late Paul the Octopus. But can you predict those figures? Can anybody else?
I am wrong in the share price of VS? I may have said the intrinsic value of VS is so much, but did I say what its share price will be? Is short-term price equates to value?
That’s because in the world of investing, being correct about something isn’t at all synonymous with being proved correct right away.”        Howard Marks

His bull shit attracted so many ignorant admirers.”
Accusing me of bullshitting and misleading are very strong words for me when I have written a total of 170 articles in i3investor sharing my personal views on investing in particular, and life in general.
Bullshitting or misleading in my context would be like peddling a stock to sell, citing with figures and statistics which only tell a small part of the story; for example telling people the estimated value of a plantation stock in term of per share, totally disregarding the cyclic nature and the quality of the plantations, its yield, soil condition, the huge claim from the debt holders, the minority interest, and even not telling there are so many convertible preferred shareholders which could halve its value.
Tell me which statement of mine in all my articles in VS is bullshit and misleading? Whom are those “ignorant admirers” whom I have misled? Do you consider these ones as well?
Posted by Ben Gan > Oct 17, 2015 10:01 AM | Report Abuse http://cdn1.i3investor.com/cm/icon/trans16.gif
KC, Great article! You are the best among all the analysts I know of. Thanks for your unselfish sharing. I salute you!
Posted by vinext > Oct 3, 2015 06:02 AM | Report Abuse http://cdn1.i3investor.com/cm/icon/trans16.gif
1) here is the 3words that can make u rich, rmber "free cash flow"-warren B
2) in i3, i only read kcchong's writing
3) ppl regard me as very good in finance, kc chong by far is the best in FA,and right on money almost all the time in his writing,
if u dont know how to appreaciate his writing, ur mental n inteligence level have some big defects
Posted by kai8994 > Jun 4, 2015 11:03 PM | Report Abuse http://cdn1.i3investor.com/cm/icon/trans16.gif
You're welcome Kc ;) Your article is "Must Read" to me, just like how Warren would love to read Howard Marks' newsletter immediately.

Posted by NOBY > Aug 26, 2015 06:06 PM | Report Abuse http://cdn1.i3investor.com/cm/icon/trans16.gif
KC, as one of your earlier followers, I must say a big thank you. All those articles and discussions with you has really benefited me over the past 3 years.... it has really speed up my learning curve and built up my confidence in investing in the stock market. Keep it up !

Posted by yfchong > Aug 26, 2015 07:56 PM | Report Abuse http://cdn1.i3investor.com/cm/icon/trans16.gif
3 years ago I came to bursa asks on TP nowadays I dun. ..... I have good night sleep w o worry to much thks bro kc

Posted by Frank Soweto > Aug 27, 2015 03:56 AM | Report Abuse http://cdn1.i3investor.com/cm/icon/trans16.gif
Mr Kc Chong, I think we - well at least the grateful ones like many above should be the ones that THANK YOU for your always unselfish time consuming articles all these while :)

Posted by goukitsu > Aug 27, 2015 09:55 AM | Report Abuse http://cdn1.i3investor.com/cm/icon/trans16.gif
Thank you Mr.KC Chong. Your articles changed the way we see investment. Your articles are not just informative but also very fun to read.

Posted by pisanggoreng > Aug 27, 2015 10:00 AM | Report Abuse http://cdn1.i3investor.com/cm/icon/trans16.gif
Thanks KC.
Your articles had turned me into sifu
Last time I followed friends , now friends follow me.
That is how you had changed the investing public
Hahaha. ..

Posted by coolio > Aug 27, 2015 03:36 PM | Report Abuse http://cdn1.i3investor.com/cm/icon/trans16.gif
As I look back on my investing journey in stock market for last 10 years. I realised actually I was being redirected to something better pass 3 years after knowing you. Never a time I miss your article and was great pleasure attended your online course. From a trader who lost money and now I'm smiling when I look at my investment return even with the current major correction. Thanks KC, keep up the excellent work!

Posted by Equityengineer > Aug 14, 2015 11:37 PM | Report Abuse http://cdn1.i3investor.com/cm/icon/trans16.gif
Priceless writing and philosophical.

Posted by RonnieKimLondon > Aug 16, 2015 11:11 AM | Report Abuse http://cdn1.i3investor.com/cm/icon/trans16.gif
Mr. Chong. God bless you and your family.
Your sound advice and wisdom are our guiding light.
Posted by ickywin > Jun 25, 2015 06:54 PM | Report Abuse http://cdn1.i3investor.com/cm/icon/trans16.gif
Although I'm not Mr KC Chong student but I have learn a lot by reading his posting in I3 on business fundamental for the past few month and it had help me to identify some of the good company. I hope 1 day I will be able to subscribe and learn from u. Once again thank you Mr. KC Chong

Posted by cpng > Sep 24, 2015 08:09 PM | Report Abuse http://cdn1.i3investor.com/cm/icon/trans16.gif
幸好这里还有像KC CHONG 的股市明灯,值得我们尊重

There are many more of these statements.
These persons and many others in i3investor are successful investors in their own right and I have my great respect for them, and many of them not necessary agree with my investment philosophy and methodology. Many of them are better than me in investing too. If you call them ignorant, then I think you have gone far out of your way.
Respect is earned, it is not given.”
As for those comments from your admirers, well, I have not made tens of millions in Bursa. You can see that I don’t go around and announce how I have made millions in Bursa. Do I? I do not need to show anybody proof that I have made money in Bursa. As I have said, I never tell the world that I have made so much money in the stock market in the first place, because I have said before, it is nothing great making money in the stock market. It doesn’t add value to the society.
As for those comments using “empty tong”, “talking rubbish” etc. on me, well, I do have records in i3investors. I don’t think I need to have a spat with you.  
So should I shut up and stop writing any more in i3investor?
No way! Read what my friend here say?
Posted by tonytonychopper > Aug 10, 2015 08:55 AM | Report Abuse http://cdn1.i3investor.com/cm/icon/trans16.gif
Please continue to share your writings. Really appreciate them.
I can see that you treated those angry ppl as motivation to write more quality articles.
Are you writing a book? I hope can see your book at bookstore.

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