Sunday, October 26, 2014
油價下殺80美元‧黑金業蕭瑟？
國際原油價格近來大幅調整，每桶80美元關口岌岌可危；作為全球最重要的原產品之一，油價波動可謂牽一髮動全身，對各國經濟影響深遠，尤其是那些高度依賴石油收入的產油國，譬如大馬，更是無可避免地迎來更多變數。
據大馬研究推測，若國際原油價格跌至每桶84.80美元水平，政府將無需再為目前每公升2令吉30仙的RON95汽油提供任何津貼。（檔案照）（圖：新華社）
80美元價位雖不至於引發恐慌，卻無疑已逐步逼近警戒線，使投資者神經緊繃。試想，若油價未來進一步跌至每桶70美元、甚至60美元，大馬、乃至全球經濟究竟會變得如何？
為了讓投資者提早做足心理準備，本期《投資焦點》將為各位分析油價進一步調整的潛在衝擊，包括對經濟和馬股的影響，探討潛在贏家和輸家，希望替投資者提供一些實用的參考資料。
油價調整原因
4個月還穩企於每桶100美元以上、且備受看好能守住100美元大關的西德洲輕原油（WTI），過去幾個月突然不斷回跌；當人們普遍察覺油價有異時，油價早已迅速跌破每桶90美元，直朝80美元價位飛奔而去。
原油價從今年6月迄今下跌超過23%，詭異跌幅背後顯然藏有某些原因。綜合分析員和評論員提供的各種解釋，引起油價失足下墜的主要原因，包括：
1.）美國頁岩油革命
早在今年6月中，國際能源署（IEA）就曾在報告中提及，美國掀起的頁岩油技術革命浪潮，預料將在未來數年內顛覆全球油供面貌，目前仍是石油進口國的美國，可望在2020以前崛起成全球最大產油國，及成為石油出口國。
另外，由於產量迅速上揚，美國在40年前落實的原油出口禁令，近來也不斷傳出可能被解除的消息。油氣公司更是一致要求美國政府儘快解禁，並提出諸多解禁的好處，如強化美國經濟，美國政府本身似也有意解禁，但礙於一些組織和機構的反對聲浪而不敢輕舉妄動。
據美國聯邦機構政府問責局提供的資料，解除美國原油出口禁令將增加美國原油產量、降低全球油價和降低美國民眾的燃油支出。有鑑於此，若美國最終決定解除禁令，原油價格或再次面對下壓。
2.）石油輸出國組織（OPEC）壓價搶客
過去，中東主要產油國一直透過供求管理來達到穩定油價目的。每當油價急需扶持時，OPEC主要成員國如沙地阿拉伯，往往會透過減產來刺激油價，確保油價保持在理想水平。
然而，由於OPEC內部的利益和意見分歧，各成員國對油價今次回跌，心裡顯然各有算盤，作為全球最大產油國的沙地阿拉伯，就明確展現了無意減產、並且可接受現有油價水平的態度，讓部份OPEC成員國大為光火。
有評論認為，面對其他地區油供不斷增加，OPEC主要產國或是考量競爭因素，才不願出手扶持油價，因低油價能夠打擊相關投資意願，拖慢其他國家發展油氣業的速度，並且讓OPEC主要產油國爭取更多客源。
3.）需求顧慮
在全球油供積極上升之際，原油需求卻似乎停滯不前，無法趕上供應面的成長步伐，導致原油價更加虛弱。
國際能源署上週二公佈的報告，就調低了全球日均原油需求增長至70萬桶，較原本估計的90萬桶少了20萬，反觀9月份原油日均產量增長則接近91萬桶，期貨分析員就此表示，供過於求現象將導致油價大幅下跌。
4.）陰謀論
陰謀論者質疑，國際油價下跌乃受到沙地阿拉伯和美國的默許，用意在於打擊俄羅斯和伊朗經濟；目前，俄羅斯和伊朗分別有約50和60%收入來自油產，市場估計油價持續下滑將導致俄伊經濟遭遇重挫，這結果正中美國與沙國下懷。
據學者追溯，透過壓低國際油價來達到國際戰略目的並非新鮮策略，如沙地阿拉伯就曾在1985年，將每日200萬桶原油出口量推高4倍，導致油價從每桶32美元跌剩10美元，並造成蘇聯每年損失200億美元，最終黯然解體。
俄羅斯總統普汀早前坦言，俄國財政預算已因油價下跌而面臨壓力，中央銀行已經在研究若油價跌至每桶60美元的對策。
油價會否繼續探低？
《焦點策劃》發現，行內人士大多均不認為油價會進一步下跌，至少目前如此。
油價長期仍看漲
理由是：全球經濟持續復甦中，可望帶動原油需求隨著攀升，這顯示原油價擁有極強的需求基礎作為後盾，從長期角度來看，原油價展望仍然看漲。
科威特石油部長早前就認為，油價將於76至77美元水平止跌，因這已經是美國和俄羅斯生產石油的平均成本；不過，分析員認為美國產油成本其實已在近年來大幅降低，實際成本可能低於每桶75美元，這顯示依成本算出的“止跌點”，或許低於人們的預期。
無論如何，也有分析員不敢排除油價在短期內進一步下滑的可能性，因就每桶80美元而言，產油活動其實仍有利可圖，至少不至於虧損，但國際商品暫時性跌破生產成本的案例，雖不多見，卻絕非前所未聞。
“若純粹從供求角度分析，原油確實不太可能跌破成本價，因產油國必然會設法穩定油價，以捍衛自身利益；不過，若其中夾雜了政治和戰略因素考量，則很難說了。”
油價下跌=大規模量寬
在依賴產油收入的產油國因油價大跌而唉聲嘆氣之際，那些長期被高油價壓得喘不過氣的石油進口國，卻難得迎來釋壓的機會；美國花旗銀行分析員直言，原油價大跌或為全球經濟帶來最高1.1兆美元的“意外之財”，效果猶如另一次大規模量寬。
全球經濟或獲1.1兆美元“意外之財”
花旗全球商品研究部門主管摩斯較早前表示，油價下跌將造成其他商品成本下滑，這現象可望讓消費者和企業在1年裡節省1.1兆美元，提振可支配收入和資本開銷能力，促進經濟成長。
目前，美國和中國均是原油進口國，備受經濟低迷困擾的歐盟和日本，同樣對進口原油非常依賴，分析員普遍相信油價回跌，將對這4大先進市場的經濟帶來振興作用。
《路透社》研究顯示，歐盟去年的原油、天然氣和熱燃煤進口開銷合計約5千億美元，其中75%用於購買原油。若原油保持在每桶90美元以下水平，歐盟的能源進口花費可望降至4千250億美元，節省逾800億美元，讓那些過去5年來飽受金融危機折磨的家庭和企業喘一口氣。
儘管有分析師指油價大跌對歐盟和日本而言未必值得慶幸，因這同時暗示兩國央行設定的通膨目標可能落空，惟整體而言，認為歐日將因油價回跌而受惠的分析員仍佔多數，主要因企業和民眾開銷能力增加，才是對抗通縮的長遠之計。
油價跌
對大馬經濟是利是弊？
石油收入佔大馬2013年總收入約30%，且預料佔2014和2015年總收入約25至27%之間，這是否意味國際油價暴跌，將使大馬財務陷入極不利的地位？
對大馬利多於弊
有關這點，分析員的回應是：油價跌對大馬利多於弊！
聯昌研究經濟學家在較早前在報告中指出，若油價保持在偏低水平，大馬經濟料將從中受惠，這主要因低油價有助降低經商成本、刺激市場需求，公共財務狀況也可望因津貼減少而進一步改善。
“大馬雖是區域唯一的原油淨出口國，可隨著過去3年的原油進口逐步增加，淨原油貿易順差佔國內生產總值比例，已從2008年的3.3%，大幅下滑至去年的0.3%，截至今年首8個月更已出現貿易逆差。”
聯昌表示，若政府在明年落實市場定價機制，加上油價保持疲軟，低油價效應將透過新機制被轉給消費者，提昇國民的可支配收入。
政府收入方面，聯昌相信政府的石油收入多少將受油價下滑影響，惟補充無論油價未來走勢如何，石油收入佔政府總收入比重都預料將跌破30%，因來臨消費稅將擴大收入基礎，且國家石油（PETRONAS）支付的股息向來保持穩定。
“節省津貼開銷不僅能達到降低赤字目標，也可強化收入，讓政府把額外資金投入到提高生產力的活動上。”
油價若跌至84.80美元
RON95將無需津貼
據大馬研究推測，若國際原油價格跌至每桶84.80美元水平，政府將無需再為目前每公升2令吉30仙的RON95汽油提供任何津貼。
該行補充，以布蘭特原油每桶100美元作為計算基礎，政府於2015年的總津貼預估達377億令吉。不過，若國際油價下跌10%，政府料能省下21億令吉的津貼。
油氣股宜趁低吸納？
另一方面，分析員認為只要國際油價能保持在每桶70美元以上，對股市的衝擊將不顯著，預計只會對油氣股投資者帶來壓力；不過，若跌破每桶70美元，則可能將在金融市場掀起短期震盪。
分析員解釋，這是由於當油價潰跌、尤其當跌破成本價時，槓桿比例一般相對偏高的油氣公司或面對來自金融機構和債權人的壓力，導致資金週轉不靈，其連鎖效應將蔓延至其他證券和股票，禍及其他投資產品，引起全方位賣壓。
“不是說當油價一跌破成本價時，油氣公司就會立即陷入困境，而是只有當產油活動被認為會在中期內無利可圖、導致相關投資大幅減少時，油氣公司才會遭麻煩纏上，因這行業的固定開銷和資金需求極高，許多公司只要無法達到特定產能使用率，就會面臨營運困難。”
無論如何，對於油價進一步深跌的潛在威脅，部份證券行顯然不太在意，興業研究更在早前報告中強調，只要國際原油保持在每桶60美元以上水平，國油就會堅守3千億令吉資本開銷承諾，繼續替油氣業者提供活水。
“不過，不能排除國油延遲部分開銷的可能性，除原油價疲弱外，國內油氣業者的執行能力亦將被納入考量。”
合約流放緩
恐衝擊未來兩年營收
《焦點策劃》發現，雖然油氣股早前大跌讓一些分析員高喊“趁低吸納”，一些證券行也持續唱好油氣業前景，卻無法掩飾投資界對油氣合約流量可能放緩的顧慮，海外業者帶來的競爭，更讓一些分析員坦言油氣業展望藏有不明朗因素。
其中，大馬證券就擔心合約流放緩可能衝擊油氣業者未來兩年的營業額和盈利前景，尤其是本地上游業者，加上市場競爭越發激烈，決定將油氣領域評級下調至“中和”。
出於對領域的憂慮，大馬研究下調了海事重工（MHB,5186,主板貿服組）及環境海事資源（ALAM,5115,主板貿服組）2016至2017財政年財測，前者遭調低11至13%，後者則被調低5至10%，國油氣體（PETGAS,6033,主板工業產品組）的投資評級亦被下調至“持有”。
興業研究也在本月初發佈的報告中，直言油氣領域缺乏短期催化因素料導致油氣工程期展延，未來領域上揚空間受限，尤其在成本增加、工程複雜性、長期需求及原油價格不穩定等利空陰霾籠罩之際。
油氣領域評級下調至“中和”
此外，興業也認為大馬油氣股估值高於海外同儕，但盈收基礎及市佔率卻明顯低落，估值方面的溢價料無以為繼，決定調低油氣領域評級至“中和”。
過去兩個月，興業因訂單填補進度緩慢、資產使用率偏低等利空，決定下調3隻油氣股評級至“中和”，遭殃的包括貝利賽（PERISAI,0047,主板貿服組）、睦興旺工程（MUHIBAH,5703,主板建筑組）及達雅集團（DAYA,0091,主板貿服組），海事重工更從被降級至“賣出”評級。
興業還下調5大油氣服務領域中的4項服務至“中和”，包括浮式生產儲油船（FPSO）、鑽井、服務製造和下游石化業務，僅維持擁有國油需求撐腰的探勘及生產服務“加碼”評級。
結語：
油價走勢本來就難以預測，就連大型油氣業者和最專業的分析員，也無法準確測中油價未來究竟會漲還是跌；能肯定的是，在各種不明朗因素面前，油氣股投資風險確實已悄悄升高。
因此，投資者與其浪費時間在推測油價走勢，不如同時考慮油價反彈和繼續下跌的潛在影響，並根據本身的風險承受能力調整油氣股投資組合，以免過度曝光於油價波動風險之中。（星洲日報／投資致富‧焦點策劃‧報道：李三宇）
Saturday, October 18, 2014
Penang Institute research on GST
![See below the summary of the report of Penang Institute research on GST and the combined effect of GST, income tax savings and BR1M for Malaysians from different income groups. Middle income group will suffer the most (household income of RM55,000 - RM 110,000 per annum). Overall, Malaysians will have less cash to spend.
----
The implementation of the Good and Services Tax, a higher BR1M and income tax cuts are some of the key elements in the Budget 2015.
Following the Budget 2015 to widen the scope of items that will not be subject to GST, the increased in the limit of electricity consumption not subject to GST and the exclusion of retail sale of RON95 petrol, diesel and LPG, we re-computed our analysis and believe that:
The net revenue collection from GST will likely to be less than RM 690 million due to GST fraud
1) After taking into account BR1M, the Budget 2015 estimated that the net revenue collection from GST will amount to RM 690 million per annum.
2) However, if this amount is estimated before the incidence of GST fraud, we believe that the practical amount might fall short of this realistically.
3) Besides, as the enforcement and monitoring costs might not be included, the net revenue raised might be even less.
4) Given that the expected fiscal deficit is 3.5% of GDP in 2014, the actual net revenue raised from GST might only contribute marginally to the aim of having a balanced budget.
Low and middle income households will bear a higher GST burden compared to high income households
5) Despite setting essential items like basic food, public transportation, education, healthcare, higher limit of electricity consumption, petrol, diesel and LPG as exempt or zero rated items, we find that GST itself remains a regressive tax (i.e. the low and middle income households will bear a higher tax burden than the higher income households).
6) This finding is consistent with the norm in international practice (e.g. the US tax administrator’s definition of regressive tax) and with international findings [e.g. “Does Australia Have a Good Income Tax System?” published in the International Business & Economics Research Journal (May 2013)].
7) Our research shows that the proportion of income paid as GST for:
a. Lowest income households (earning RM 605 per month) is 1.71%
b. Middle income households (earning RM 2,580 per month) is 2.01%
c. Highest income households (earning RM 31,850 per month) is 0.96%
8) Our conclusion that GST is a regressive tax is robust as it was undertaken using:
a. Bank Negara’s estimates of income/expenditure
b. The latest Household Expenditure Survey 2009/2010 from the Department of
Statistics
c. The stipulation that essential items like basic food, public transportation, education
and healthcare are exempt or zero rated items
The average Malaysian household pays RM 70 per month or 1.9% of income as GST
9) Our research shows that the average Malaysian household is expected to pay RM 70 per month or 1.9% of their income as GST.
10) We find that a higher GST burden (as a percentage of income) will fall on households in these categories:
a. Low and middle income
b. Single person household
c. Young (less than 24 years old)
d. Bumiputera led households
e. Clerical workers, skilled agricultural and fishery workers
f. Households residing in Peninsular Malaysia
The combined net effect of BR1M, GST and income tax cuts will benefit low and high income households as they will have more cash; but the middle income households are worse off with less cash
11) In the Budget 2015, a higher BR1M and income tax cuts are introduced at the same time as GST.
12) By combining BR1M, income tax cuts and GST, we find that the Budget 2015 measures will have these effect (as summarised in Figure 1):
a. Low income households will receive BR1M which exceeds the GST that will be payable. The net effect is additional cash between RM 607 to RM 828 per annum.
b. High income households will receive income tax savings due to tax cuts that will exceed the GST payable, giving additional cash of RM 4,296 per annum.
c. Middle income households will neither receive BR1M nor benefit much from income tax cuts; but will have to pay GST. Consequently, they will end up having less cash – approximately RM 708 per annum. The annual household incomes for these middle income households are approximately between RM 55,000 to RM 110,000 per annum.
13) According to the Household Income Survey 2012, the average household income in Malaysia is RM 5,000 per month (RM 60,000 per annum). Therefore, we believe that the combined effect will result in the average Malaysian household having less cash to spend.
For more information on our research and on our interactive spreadsheet detailing the impact on different households, visit:
http://www.penanginstitute.org/gst/
Press statement by:
1. Dr Lim Kim Hwa, Chief Executive Officer and Head of Economics, Penang Institute
2. Dr Lim Chee Han, Senior Analyst, Penang Institute
3. Ms Ong Wooi Leng, Senior Analyst, Penang Institute
4. Mr Tim Niklas Schoepp, Visiting Analyst, Penang Institute
--------](https://scontent-a-kul.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-xap1/v/t1.0-9/s526x395/10624744_380219235465341_363163019540528271_n.png?oh=9a9607c0f87bf19b9a15adcd9a1ff610&oe=54BFB120)
See below the summary of the report of Penang Institute research on GST and the combined effect of GST, income tax savings and BR1M for Malaysians from differen...t income groups. Middle income group will suffer the most (household income of RM55,000 - RM 110,000 per annum). Overall, Malaysians will have less cash to spend.
----
----
The implementation of the Good and Services Tax, a higher BR1M and income tax cuts are some of the key elements in the Budget 2015.
Following the Budget 2015 to widen the scope of items that will not be subject to GST, the increased in the limit of electricity consumption not subject to GST and the exclusion of retail sale of RON95 petrol, diesel and LPG, we re-computed our analysis and believe that:
The net revenue collection from GST will likely to be less than RM 690 million due to GST fraud
1) After taking into account BR1M, the Budget 2015 estimated that the net revenue collection from GST will amount to RM 690 million per annum.
2) However, if this amount is estimated before the incidence of GST fraud, we believe that the practical amount might fall short of this realistically.
3) Besides, as the enforcement and monitoring costs might not be included, the net revenue raised might be even less.
4) Given that the expected fiscal deficit is 3.5% of GDP in 2014, the actual net revenue raised from GST might only contribute marginally to the aim of having a balanced budget.
Low and middle income households will bear a higher GST burden compared to high income households
5) Despite setting essential items like basic food, public transportation, education, healthcare, higher limit of electricity consumption, petrol, diesel and LPG as exempt or zero rated items, we find that GST itself remains a regressive tax (i.e. the low and middle income households will bear a higher tax burden than the higher income households).
6) This finding is consistent with the norm in international practice (e.g. the US tax administrator’s definition of regressive tax) and with international findings [e.g. “Does Australia Have a Good Income Tax System?” published in the International Business & Economics Research Journal (May 2013)].
7) Our research shows that the proportion of income paid as GST for:
a. Lowest income households (earning RM 605 per month) is 1.71%
b. Middle income households (earning RM 2,580 per month) is 2.01%
c. Highest income households (earning RM 31,850 per month) is 0.96%
8) Our conclusion that GST is a regressive tax is robust as it was undertaken using:
a. Bank Negara’s estimates of income/expenditure
b. The latest Household Expenditure Survey 2009/2010 from the Department of
Statistics
c. The stipulation that essential items like basic food, public transportation, education
and healthcare are exempt or zero rated items
The average Malaysian household pays RM 70 per month or 1.9% of income as GST
9) Our research shows that the average Malaysian household is expected to pay RM 70 per month or 1.9% of their income as GST.
10) We find that a higher GST burden (as a percentage of income) will fall on households in these categories:
a. Low and middle income
b. Single person household
c. Young (less than 24 years old)
d. Bumiputera led households
e. Clerical workers, skilled agricultural and fishery workers
f. Households residing in Peninsular Malaysia
The combined net effect of BR1M, GST and income tax cuts will benefit low and high income households as they will have more cash; but the middle income households are worse off with less cash
11) In the Budget 2015, a higher BR1M and income tax cuts are introduced at the same time as GST.
12) By combining BR1M, income tax cuts and GST, we find that the Budget 2015 measures will have these effect (as summarised in Figure 1):
a. Low income households will receive BR1M which exceeds the GST that will be payable. The net effect is additional cash between RM 607 to RM 828 per annum.
b. High income households will receive income tax savings due to tax cuts that will exceed the GST payable, giving additional cash of RM 4,296 per annum.
c. Middle income households will neither receive BR1M nor benefit much from income tax cuts; but will have to pay GST. Consequently, they will end up having less cash – approximately RM 708 per annum. The annual household incomes for these middle income households are approximately between RM 55,000 to RM 110,000 per annum.
13) According to the Household Income Survey 2012, the average household income in Malaysia is RM 5,000 per month (RM 60,000 per annum). Therefore, we believe that the combined effect will result in the average Malaysian household having less cash to spend.
For more information on our research and on our interactive spreadsheet detailing the impact on different households, visit:
http://www.penanginstitute.org/gst/
Press statement by:
1. Dr Lim Kim Hwa, Chief Executive Officer and Head of Economics, Penang Institute
2. Dr Lim Chee Han, Senior Analyst, Penang Institute
3. Ms Ong Wooi Leng, Senior Analyst, Penang Institute
4. Mr Tim Niklas Schoepp, Visiting Analyst, Penang Institute
Following the Budget 2015 to widen the scope of items that will not be subject to GST, the increased in the limit of electricity consumption not subject to GST and the exclusion of retail sale of RON95 petrol, diesel and LPG, we re-computed our analysis and believe that:
The net revenue collection from GST will likely to be less than RM 690 million due to GST fraud
1) After taking into account BR1M, the Budget 2015 estimated that the net revenue collection from GST will amount to RM 690 million per annum.
2) However, if this amount is estimated before the incidence of GST fraud, we believe that the practical amount might fall short of this realistically.
3) Besides, as the enforcement and monitoring costs might not be included, the net revenue raised might be even less.
4) Given that the expected fiscal deficit is 3.5% of GDP in 2014, the actual net revenue raised from GST might only contribute marginally to the aim of having a balanced budget.
Low and middle income households will bear a higher GST burden compared to high income households
5) Despite setting essential items like basic food, public transportation, education, healthcare, higher limit of electricity consumption, petrol, diesel and LPG as exempt or zero rated items, we find that GST itself remains a regressive tax (i.e. the low and middle income households will bear a higher tax burden than the higher income households).
6) This finding is consistent with the norm in international practice (e.g. the US tax administrator’s definition of regressive tax) and with international findings [e.g. “Does Australia Have a Good Income Tax System?” published in the International Business & Economics Research Journal (May 2013)].
7) Our research shows that the proportion of income paid as GST for:
a. Lowest income households (earning RM 605 per month) is 1.71%
b. Middle income households (earning RM 2,580 per month) is 2.01%
c. Highest income households (earning RM 31,850 per month) is 0.96%
8) Our conclusion that GST is a regressive tax is robust as it was undertaken using:
a. Bank Negara’s estimates of income/expenditure
b. The latest Household Expenditure Survey 2009/2010 from the Department of
Statistics
c. The stipulation that essential items like basic food, public transportation, education
and healthcare are exempt or zero rated items
The average Malaysian household pays RM 70 per month or 1.9% of income as GST
9) Our research shows that the average Malaysian household is expected to pay RM 70 per month or 1.9% of their income as GST.
10) We find that a higher GST burden (as a percentage of income) will fall on households in these categories:
a. Low and middle income
b. Single person household
c. Young (less than 24 years old)
d. Bumiputera led households
e. Clerical workers, skilled agricultural and fishery workers
f. Households residing in Peninsular Malaysia
The combined net effect of BR1M, GST and income tax cuts will benefit low and high income households as they will have more cash; but the middle income households are worse off with less cash
11) In the Budget 2015, a higher BR1M and income tax cuts are introduced at the same time as GST.
12) By combining BR1M, income tax cuts and GST, we find that the Budget 2015 measures will have these effect (as summarised in Figure 1):
a. Low income households will receive BR1M which exceeds the GST that will be payable. The net effect is additional cash between RM 607 to RM 828 per annum.
b. High income households will receive income tax savings due to tax cuts that will exceed the GST payable, giving additional cash of RM 4,296 per annum.
c. Middle income households will neither receive BR1M nor benefit much from income tax cuts; but will have to pay GST. Consequently, they will end up having less cash – approximately RM 708 per annum. The annual household incomes for these middle income households are approximately between RM 55,000 to RM 110,000 per annum.
13) According to the Household Income Survey 2012, the average household income in Malaysia is RM 5,000 per month (RM 60,000 per annum). Therefore, we believe that the combined effect will result in the average Malaysian household having less cash to spend.
For more information on our research and on our interactive spreadsheet detailing the impact on different households, visit:
http://www.penanginstitute.org/gst/
Press statement by:
1. Dr Lim Kim Hwa, Chief Executive Officer and Head of Economics, Penang Institute
2. Dr Lim Chee Han, Senior Analyst, Penang Institute
3. Ms Ong Wooi Leng, Senior Analyst, Penang Institute
4. Mr Tim Niklas Schoepp, Visiting Analyst, Penang Institute
Sunday, October 12, 2014
Budget 2015 Highlights for Personal Finance
Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Razak, who is also Finance Minister, unveiled 2015 budgets in the Parliaments on Friday, 10th October 2014. The theme for 2015 Budget “Accelerating Growth, Ensuring Fiscal Sustainability and Prospering the Rakyat.”
In 2015, economic growth is expected to remain strong between 5% and 6% while the fiscal deficit is projected to further decline to 3% of GDP.
The 2015 budget is formulated with focus on the people’s economy and outlines seven main strategies:
First Strategy: Strengthening Economic Growth;
Second Strategy: Enhancing Fiscal Governance;
Third Strategy: Developing Human Capital and Entrepreneurship;
Fourth Strategy: Advancing Bumiputera Agenda;
Fifth Strategy: Upholding Role of Women;
Sixth Strategy: Developing National Youth Transformation Programme; and
Seventh Strategy: Prioritising Well-Being of the Rakyat.
The following are 2014 Budget highlights for Personal Finance and Investment.
In 2015, economic growth is expected to remain strong between 5% and 6% while the fiscal deficit is projected to further decline to 3% of GDP.
The 2015 budget is formulated with focus on the people’s economy and outlines seven main strategies:
First Strategy: Strengthening Economic Growth;
Second Strategy: Enhancing Fiscal Governance;
Third Strategy: Developing Human Capital and Entrepreneurship;
Fourth Strategy: Advancing Bumiputera Agenda;
Fifth Strategy: Upholding Role of Women;
Sixth Strategy: Developing National Youth Transformation Programme; and
Seventh Strategy: Prioritising Well-Being of the Rakyat.
The following are 2014 Budget highlights for Personal Finance and Investment.
| Area | Description |
|---|---|
| Goods & Services Tax (GST) | The following items are exempted from GST(i) All types of fruits whether local or imported; (ii) White bread and wholemeal bread; (iii) Coffee powder, tea dust and cocoa powder; (iv) Yellow mee, kuey teow, laksa and meehoon; (v) The National Essential Medicine covering almost 2,900 medicine brands. These medicines are used to treat 30 types of diseases including heart failure, diabetes, hypertension, cancer and fertility treatment; (vi) Reading materials such as children’s colouring books, exercise and reference books, text books, dictionaries and religious books; and (vii) Newspapers. |
| Electricity consumption that is not subject to GST will be increased from the first 200 units to 300 units. This will benefit 70 per cent of households. | |
| Retail sale of RON95 petrol, diesel and LPG exempted from GST | |
| Budget 2015 proposed to have a reduction of up to 4.1 per cent in the prices of 532 items or 56 per cent of the 944 goods and services in the basket of goods of the CPI | |
| Income Tax | Individual income tax rates will be reduced by 1 to 3 percentage points. 300,000 individual taxpayers will no longer pay income tax. |
| Household with monthly income of RM4,000 does not need to pay tax | |
| Maximum chargeable income will be increased from exceeding RM100,000 to exceeding RM400,000. The current maximum tax rate at 26% will be reduced to 24%, 24.5% and 25%. | |
| Tax relief for expenses incurred for treatment of serious diseases such as cancer, kidney failure and heart attack increase from RM5,000 to RM6,000 per year. The relief is available to the tax payer, spouse and children. | |
| Financial assistance for the disabled (OKU). Tax relief for each disabled child from increase from RM5,000 to RM6,000 per year for the purchase of basic supporting equipment for the tax payer, spouse, children and parents. | |
| Property | Youth Housing Scheme. For married youth aged between 25 and 40 years with household income not exceeding RM10,000 to buy first house. The scheme offers loan with the maximum period of 35 years.Government will provide monthly financial assistance of RM200 to borrowers for the first two years to reduce the burden of monthly installment and also 50% stamp duty exemption on the instrument of transfer agreements and loan agreements.Will be offered on first-come first-served basis for 20,000 units only. |
| 80,000 units under the 1Malaysia People’s Housing Programme (PR1MA). The ceiling of household income is raised from RM8,000 to RM10,000. In addition, a Rent-To-Own Scheme will be introduced specifically for individuals who are unable to obtain bank financing. | |
| National Housing Department (JPN) will build 26,000 units under the People’s Housing Programme (PPR) | |
| Syarikat Perumahan Negara Berhad (SPNB) to build 12,000 units of Rumah Mesra Rakyat (RMR) and 5,000 units of Rumah Idaman Rakyat. SPNB will also build 20,000 units of Rumah Aspirasi Rakyat on privately-owned land. | |
| Extend the 50% stamp duty exemption on instruments of transfer and loan agreements and increase the purchase limit from RM400,000 to RM500,000. The exemption will be given until 31 December 2016. | |
| Improve Skim Rumah Pertamaku under the purview of Cagamas by raising the ceiling price to RM500,000. The age of borrowers to qualify for the scheme will be increased from 35 to 40 years. | |
| Tax on gains from the disposal of property (RPGT) be self-assessed by the taxpayer effective from the year 2016. | |
| Lower Income Group | BR1M increase from RM650 to RM950 for households with a monthly income of RM3,000 and below. It will be disbursed in three instalments of RM300 each to be paid in January and May with the balance of RM350 from September 2015 |
| For households with a monthly income between RM3,000 and RM4,000, the Government will increase BR1M from RM450 to RM750. This assistance will be disbursed in three instalments, RM200 to be paid in January and May while the balance of RM350 from September 2015 | |
| Single individuals aged 21 and above and with a monthly income not exceeding RM2,000, BR1M will be increased from RM300 to RM350 a year. | |
| Government will replace the group takaful insurance or i-BR1M with Family Bereavement Scheme. The new scheme will entitle the next of kin of BR1M recipients to receive RM1,000 effective for a year. | |
| Government will develop a new mechanism for providing petroleum subsidy to ensure a more targeted subsidy. | |
| Perbadanan Tabung Pendidikan Tinggi Nasional (PTPTN) | 10% rebate is given to borrowers who continuously make repayments for 12 months until 31 December 2015. |
| An additional 20% discount will be offered to borrowers who make lump sum repayments from today until 31 March 2015. | |
| Civil Servant | Civil servants will be given half-month bonus |
| Increase the minimum eligibility for housing loans from RM80,000 to RM120,000 and the maximum eligibility limit from RM450,000 to RM600,000. RM100 processing fee for housing loan application will be abolished. | |
| PPA1M houses. Reduce the minimum price of houses currently at RM150,000 to RM90,000 per unit with a minimum floor area of 850 square feet. Raise the qualifying requirement of household income from RM8,000 to RM10,000 per month and provide a facilitation fund of up to 25% from the project cost for developers participating in the scheme. |
Thursday, October 9, 2014
美国真股神是Carl Icahn,不是Warren Buffett
Read: http://mystockfolio.blogspot.com/
Six Stocks Owned by Billionaire Carl Icahn
Perhaps the biggest nugget in Icahn’s letter was his analysis on the power of the board seat. Over the past five years, if any investor would have bought an Icahn-owned stock the day that he (or his team) joined the board of the company, and sold it the day they left the board, according to Icahn's study that investor would have made a 27% annualized return. That means Icahn’s “board seat screen” would have turned $30,000 into just over $100,000. Moreover, these stocks were winners nearly 8 out of every 10 times, when this condition of a board seat was met.
Through this analysis, Icahn is essentially telling us to follow him – to do what he does. With this in mind, here’s a look at five stocks where Carl Icahn has a 5% stake or more, and currently has a board seat.
Transocean Ltd. (RIG) – Icahn has had a member of his team on Transocean’s board since 2013 and he owns almost 6% of this stock.
Navistar (NAV) – Icahn’s team has been on the board of Navistar since 2012 and Icahn owns 17.6% of Navistar’s stock.
Hertz (HTZ) – Icahn owns almost 9% of Hertz, and last month he just received three board seats from the company.
Six Stocks Owned by Billionaire Carl Icahn
Carl Icahn has the best long-run investing track record in history. Yes, better than Warren Buffett, and over a slightly longer period of time.
From 2000 to July of this year, Icahn returned a cumulative 1,622%. That compares to 235% for Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway, and just 73% for the S&P 500. Icahn has returned 27% annualized over a 52-year period. That turns $10,000 into $2.5 billion. That’s a remarkable statement.
How does he do it?
This past August, he wrote a public letter on his style of investing.
In his letter, Icahn points to a dysfunctional corporate America as the lifeblood of his strategy. He says, “true corporate democracy does not exist in America and as a result many unfit CEOs are not held accountable.” He credits his success to “adhering to the activism model which we have spent many years developing. What we essentially do is attempt to hold managements accountable through our rights as shareholders and seek to ensure the right people run the companies we invest in.”
In short, there will always be the opportunity to step in and shake up management, remove bad CEO’s, replace them with good CEO’s, and unlock value in poorly performing companies. Until every company in America is optimally run and is maximizing shareholder value, Icahn will be in business, and so will the art of shareholder activism. Perhaps the biggest nugget in Icahn’s letter was his analysis on the power of the board seat. Over the past five years, if any investor would have bought an Icahn-owned stock the day that he (or his team) joined the board of the company, and sold it the day they left the board, according to Icahn's study that investor would have made a 27% annualized return. That means Icahn’s “board seat screen” would have turned $30,000 into just over $100,000. Moreover, these stocks were winners nearly 8 out of every 10 times, when this condition of a board seat was met.
Through this analysis, Icahn is essentially telling us to follow him – to do what he does. With this in mind, here’s a look at five stocks where Carl Icahn has a 5% stake or more, and currently has a board seat.
Hologic (HOLX) – According to Icahn’s Filings he owns almost $7 billion dollars worth, or 12% of Hologic. His team has two board seats on Hologic.
Nuance (NUAN) – Icahn has two members of his team on Nuance’s board and he owns more than 19% of Nuance stock. Transocean Ltd. (RIG) – Icahn has had a member of his team on Transocean’s board since 2013 and he owns almost 6% of this stock.
Navistar (NAV) – Icahn’s team has been on the board of Navistar since 2012 and Icahn owns 17.6% of Navistar’s stock.
Hertz (HTZ) – Icahn owns almost 9% of Hertz, and last month he just received three board seats from the company.
Herbalife Ltd. (HLF) – Icahn owns a whopping 18.5% of Herbalife and he has had three seats on Herbalife’s board since April of 2013.
Friday, October 3, 2014
分析師看空黃金 稱將再跌40%至每盎司660美元
和訊網訊息 據媒體報導，內德戴維斯研究的大宗商品規則師約翰-拉法格（john laforge）周四表示，黃金價格將會跌至每盎司660美元。
約翰-拉法格是在參加cnbc的電視節目是提出這個判斷的。他說，黃金目前所處的“超級周期”的結束可能讓這種貴金屬的價格跌至每盎司660美元，也就是相比目前的水平再跌約40%。
約翰-拉法格指出，在1980年代的時候，黃金價格曾相比當時的尖峰下跌了65%，並經歷長達20年的熊市。而在2011年觸及每盎司 1900美元的尖峰之后，黃金應該會在當前周期中有類似的尖峰到谷底跌勢。他說，“我們知道大宗商品是在一個超級周期中，它們最終會死掉，黃金看起來正在 死去。”他強調，“所以，每盎司660美元是絕對可能發生的。”
不過約翰-拉法格也表示，美聯儲以及其他央行的量化寬鬆也有可能推高金價，造成當前超級周期並不以他所預期的方式結束。
約翰-拉法格是在參加cnbc的電視節目是提出這個判斷的。他說，黃金目前所處的“超級周期”的結束可能讓這種貴金屬的價格跌至每盎司660美元，也就是相比目前的水平再跌約40%。
約翰-拉法格指出，在1980年代的時候，黃金價格曾相比當時的尖峰下跌了65%，並經歷長達20年的熊市。而在2011年觸及每盎司 1900美元的尖峰之后，黃金應該會在當前周期中有類似的尖峰到谷底跌勢。他說，“我們知道大宗商品是在一個超級周期中，它們最終會死掉，黃金看起來正在 死去。”他強調，“所以，每盎司660美元是絕對可能發生的。”
不過約翰-拉法格也表示，美聯儲以及其他央行的量化寬鬆也有可能推高金價，造成當前超級周期並不以他所預期的方式結束。
[转帖] 产业股将面对挑战，进来看看 - jim yuet
先向大家道歉，uncle因为私人理由忙了5天，忙得完全没时间update各位，请大家见谅。
uncle jim觉得产业股将在未来面对挑战是因为最近时常看到产业股的老总喊话，大家一起呼吁政府的举动确实不畅见~
uncle收集的如下：
1）马星集团（MAHSING，8583，主板产业股）董事经理暨总执行长丹斯里梁海金希望政府让售价低于100万令吉的住宅产业，从“豁免消费税”（Exempted）转为“零税率消费税”（Zero Rated）。他也期望政府能够在来临的财政预算案中，重新推行发展商利息承担计划（简称DIBS）
2）置地通用(L&G，3174，主板产业股）董事經理劉毅德表示，我們發現很多想買第一間房子的人，他們有穩定的收入，但還是有很多人很難付得起首期。政府可以考慮再提高第一間房子的貸款上限，或是批准買家直接從每月公積金扣款中抽一部份來還房貸。
3）麗陽機構（TROP，5401，主要板房產）董事羅碧媚籲政府在2015年財政預算案宣布，讓房產業者重新推出發展商承擔利息計劃（DIBS）。
从他们的“呼吁”不难发现其实市场已经难以消化他们所建造的房产，说到底，他们的呼吁不外是要求“流动资金”，要求政府放宽贷款条件，重启DIBS, 甚至把橄榄枝伸向大众的EPF。
那么为什么市场会缺乏资金呢？因为大马私人家庭在2008年，向銀行貸款額約1030億歐元（約4269億令吉），當時占國內生產總值的60.4%。截至2013年底，貸款數額高漲至超過1890億歐元（約7833億令吉），占國內生產總值約87% 就是说，要借钱买房子的人，都已经借了，这几年的房产牛市已经把市场上的资金用的7788，那么接下来谁有钱买房子呢？难道用cash买吗？
实情是，资金被你们榨干了~ 产业老总还希望把你的EPF一起赚取~ 也希望政府同流合污~
不幸的是，接下来如果美国升息，大马就会被逼着升息，市场的流动资金更少~
老实说，这几年产业股表现得很标清，但是盲目的希望接下来产业股会继续表现良好是不智的，看到很多股友都在追高产业股，难道你真的以为你选择的“优良公司”真的可以逆势而上？我只是想说，你有其他选择。
Wednesday, October 1, 2014
Here’s How Malaysian ATMs Were Hacked Of RM3 Million By Latin Americans - financetwitter
ATM thefts have gone high-tech, and judging by how the police and banks are running around like a headless chicken trying to piece together the puzzle, the local authorities and financial institutions were obviously not ready for such an attack. And it’s not hard to understand why – the police and banking institutions were trapped in stone age mentality where they thought the bad guys will always be the same “Oxy Gang”, using oxy-acetylene blow torch to open the machine’s cash compartment.
That was so yesterday. To make things worse, banking institutions blinded by greediness had resorted to squeeze every penny of profits by cutting off security guards manning ATM machines. They depend on merely CCTV cameras and alarm systems as their only defence. Hence, the latest ATM thefts methodology has left the authorities head scratching. So far, 14 bank branches belonging to Affin Bank, Al Rajhi Bank and Bank Islam were reportedly hacked into by a Latin American gang which made off with over RM3 million.
Malaysian Bukit Aman Commercial Crime Investigation Department chief Comm Mortadza Nazarene revealed that the suspects used a computer malware known as “ulssm.exe” to hack into the ATMs. The suspects were found to have opened the top panel of the machine without using a key and inserted a compact disc into the machine’s processing centre which caused the ATM’s system to reboot.
The sophisticated gang then used a keyboard to hack into the system and take out money. According to systems engineer of a bank – up to 40 notes could be taken out in a single transaction using the method. Needless to say, the absence of security guard ease the gang’s task, so much so that they could go for a spa or coffee session before coming back to collect their loots.
But is this something very new as if it was invented yesterday? Actually, the risk of using such malware or to be precise – ATM trojan horse - was published back in May 2014. What this means is, somebody had already done that using the same method somewhere in the world. Unfortunately, the police were too busy carrying orders from their politician masters arresting opposition for petty and silly seditious allegations.
As far back as 2010, computer security experts have shown how ATM machines can be hacked to spit money, using hardware kit that cost less than US$100 to make. And the ATM’s motherboard is only protected by a door, of which you can buy the “universal key” online (*grin*). You can then used a USB port on the motherboard to upload your own software (stored in your USB stick), which changed the device’s display, played a tune, and made the machine spit out money.
So, how did the high-tech Latin American gang hacked and stole RM3 million (US$920,000; £560,000) in a couple of nights? It all started with Microsoft – they stopped supporting Windows XP operating system after 8th April, 2014. In other words, even if the ATM trojan horse was discovered one day after the end-of-support date, Microsoft will not release any security patches to plug the threat, period.
The problem is there are up to 95% ATM machines still running on Windows XP. Again, due to cost and profit, banking institutions prefer to close one-eye and pretend as if their ATMs were as secured as the Alcatraz. In the case of Malaysian ATM thefts, the Latin Americans could most likely infected their compact disc with “Backdoor.Padpin” trojan horse. Once the CD is inserted, the ATM reboots and execute the trojan horse, which create the following file:
The Trojan can delete itself if it fails to gain control of the PIN pad or dispenser. It runs in the background until a specific code is entered on the ATM’s PIN pad. Finally, it then opens a back door on the ATM running Windows XP, allowing an attacker to perform the following actions:
There’s also another famous trojan horse – Backdoor.Ploutus – which was discovered in 2013 to hack ATMs in Mexico. Amazingly, this Ploutus trojan allows cybercriminals to simply send an SMS to the compromised ATM, then walk up and collect the dispensed cash. Here’s how it works:
At the moment, it’s not sure if the Latin American gang used the “Padpin” or “Ploutus” trojan, or another type of variant. If police’ revelation is true, and not just another marketing stunt to convince the public about their efficiency, then the first method could be used. But that does not explain the phone SIM card usage during the ATM hacking operation, as what the police have claim.
Whichever the method used, the Latin American gang did one huge mistake – they forgot to erase their foot trail by deleting their trojan from the ATMs hacked and robbed. Perhaps they were too excited and surprised with the lack of banking security in this country. Either way, the fact that no security guard was deployed to this “goldmines” can only means one thing – the hacking spree is going to continue (*tongue-in-cheek*).
http://www.financetwitter.com/2014/09/here-is-how-malaysian-atms-were-hacked-of-rm3-million-by-latin-americans.html
That was so yesterday. To make things worse, banking institutions blinded by greediness had resorted to squeeze every penny of profits by cutting off security guards manning ATM machines. They depend on merely CCTV cameras and alarm systems as their only defence. Hence, the latest ATM thefts methodology has left the authorities head scratching. So far, 14 bank branches belonging to Affin Bank, Al Rajhi Bank and Bank Islam were reportedly hacked into by a Latin American gang which made off with over RM3 million.
Malaysian Bukit Aman Commercial Crime Investigation Department chief Comm Mortadza Nazarene revealed that the suspects used a computer malware known as “ulssm.exe” to hack into the ATMs. The suspects were found to have opened the top panel of the machine without using a key and inserted a compact disc into the machine’s processing centre which caused the ATM’s system to reboot.
The sophisticated gang then used a keyboard to hack into the system and take out money. According to systems engineer of a bank – up to 40 notes could be taken out in a single transaction using the method. Needless to say, the absence of security guard ease the gang’s task, so much so that they could go for a spa or coffee session before coming back to collect their loots.
But is this something very new as if it was invented yesterday? Actually, the risk of using such malware or to be precise – ATM trojan horse - was published back in May 2014. What this means is, somebody had already done that using the same method somewhere in the world. Unfortunately, the police were too busy carrying orders from their politician masters arresting opposition for petty and silly seditious allegations.
As far back as 2010, computer security experts have shown how ATM machines can be hacked to spit money, using hardware kit that cost less than US$100 to make. And the ATM’s motherboard is only protected by a door, of which you can buy the “universal key” online (*grin*). You can then used a USB port on the motherboard to upload your own software (stored in your USB stick), which changed the device’s display, played a tune, and made the machine spit out money.
So, how did the high-tech Latin American gang hacked and stole RM3 million (US$920,000; £560,000) in a couple of nights? It all started with Microsoft – they stopped supporting Windows XP operating system after 8th April, 2014. In other words, even if the ATM trojan horse was discovered one day after the end-of-support date, Microsoft will not release any security patches to plug the threat, period.
The problem is there are up to 95% ATM machines still running on Windows XP. Again, due to cost and profit, banking institutions prefer to close one-eye and pretend as if their ATMs were as secured as the Alcatraz. In the case of Malaysian ATM thefts, the Latin Americans could most likely infected their compact disc with “Backdoor.Padpin” trojan horse. Once the CD is inserted, the ATM reboots and execute the trojan horse, which create the following file:
- [PATH TO THREAT]\ulssm.exe
- HKEY_LOCAL_MACHINE\SOFTWARE\Microsoft\Windows\CurrentVersion\Run\”ulssm.exe” = “[PATH TO THREAT]\ulssm.exe“
- HKEY_CURRENT_USER\Software\Microsoft\Windows\CurrentVersion\Run\”ulssm.exe” = “[PATH TO THREAT]\ulssm.exe“
The Trojan can delete itself if it fails to gain control of the PIN pad or dispenser. It runs in the background until a specific code is entered on the ATM’s PIN pad. Finally, it then opens a back door on the ATM running Windows XP, allowing an attacker to perform the following actions:
- Display cassette information such as bills left, denomination and total amount per cassette
- Dispense money from the compromised ATM
- Select which cassette the ATM dispenses money from
- Temporarily disable the local network to avoid triggering alarms when withdrawing money
- Extend the duration of the session in order to continue stealing money
- Delete the Trojan from the compromised ATM
There’s also another famous trojan horse – Backdoor.Ploutus – which was discovered in 2013 to hack ATMs in Mexico. Amazingly, this Ploutus trojan allows cybercriminals to simply send an SMS to the compromised ATM, then walk up and collect the dispensed cash. Here’s how it works:
- Connect a mobile phone to the machine with a USB cable and install Ploutus Trojan.
- Sends two SMS messages to the mobile phone inside the ATM.
- SMS 1 contains a valid activation ID to activate the trojan horse
- SMS 2 contains a valid dispense command to get the money out
- Mobile attached inside the ATM detects valid incoming SMS messages and forwards them to the ATM as a TCP or UDP packet.
- Network packet monitor (NPM) module coded in the trojan receives the TCP/UDP packet and if it contains a valid command, it will execute Ploutus
- Amount for Cash withdrawal is pre-configured inside the trojan horse itself.
- And voila, the hacker can collect cash from the hacked ATM machine.
At the moment, it’s not sure if the Latin American gang used the “Padpin” or “Ploutus” trojan, or another type of variant. If police’ revelation is true, and not just another marketing stunt to convince the public about their efficiency, then the first method could be used. But that does not explain the phone SIM card usage during the ATM hacking operation, as what the police have claim.
Whichever the method used, the Latin American gang did one huge mistake – they forgot to erase their foot trail by deleting their trojan from the ATMs hacked and robbed. Perhaps they were too excited and surprised with the lack of banking security in this country. Either way, the fact that no security guard was deployed to this “goldmines” can only means one thing – the hacking spree is going to continue (*tongue-in-cheek*).
http://www.financetwitter.com/2014/09/here-is-how-malaysian-atms-were-hacked-of-rm3-million-by-latin-americans.html
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
