Sunday, September 21, 2014

How to lead a comfortable retirement life through investing in the stock market? kcchongnz

K C Chong 是我在i3 forum发掘的一个高手,他研究股票有自己一套,而且如果长期hold, 可以慢慢看到他分析股票的利害之处。


之前他写了关于退休之文章,由于他也是Fundamental Analyst,我觉得大家理念相同,所以这里决定转载他出色的文章和股票分析。


How to lead a comfortable retirement life through investing in the stock market? kcchongnz


How to lead a comfortable retirement life through investing in the stock market?
“How many millionaires do you know who have become wealthy by investing in savings accounts? I rest my case.” Robert G. Allen
Yes, you can become rich, or at least can lead a comfortable retirement life, if you save and invest wisely in the share market. Warren Buffett knew this secrete when he was a very young man. He said,
“I always knew I was going to be rich. I don't think I ever doubted it for a minute.”
How I wish I could think like him and did what he was doing, not only invest but invest in the right way, when I was a young man. If one doesn’t invest the right way but by simply listening to rumours and punt on hot stocks, instead of building wealth for retirement, can end up a pauper as what is described in my recent post below.
http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/59866.jsp
Warren Buffett is the third richest man in the world now with a net worth USD 67.7 billion. There are many other super investors who have consistently making extra-ordinary return from the market over a long period of time. Below are some of them with their incredible investing records:
  1. The Super Investors of Graham and Doddsville; Warren Buffet, Charles Munger, Walter Schloss. Tweedy Browne, Bill Ruane and many others
  1. Greenblatt and his Magic Formula
http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/51631.jsp
Other super investors include Peter Lynch, Philip Fisher, Seth Klarman, Julian Robertson, Sir John Templeton, Robert Arnold, Howard Marks, and our ColdEye 冷眼etc. Notice that all those who have made extra-ordinary returns from the market above followed the fundamental approach in investing for long term and they have all the records to show?

My personal experience
As I have mentioned above how I wish I had started young like what Buffett did. But it is always better late than never, isn’t it? Moreover, I am not aiming to be super rich like anyone of them, but just to have a more comfortable retirement life.
I have two portfolios “officially” put up in i3investor. As at 14th September 2014, the first one put up in 22nd January 2013 has returned an average of 95.8% against the broad market of 16.7% of the same period. The second one put up on 1st August 2013 after the General Election has returned an average return of 84.8% against the 4.7% of the broad market. They are old stories and anyone interested can read from the link below: 
http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/56926.jsp
http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/56937.jsp
I must say that the good records as shown in my portfolio return of duration up to 20 months only may be too short a time to claim victory. What about since then, what other picks I have made from based on the fundamental approach in investing, and what are the outcomes?

My recent picks
I started my new pick on Prestariang on 30th November 2013 when it was traded at RM1.25 and KLCI was at 1813. Nine and a half months have passed and it is trading at RM2.05 at the close on 12th September 2014. With the dividends included, the return is 68%.
Subsequently 14 other stocks including two company warrants were selected in the new portfolio as tabulated in the appendix. All the picks in the portfolio were published in i3investor with detail analysis as before. The average total return is 17.5% with a median return of 10.3% compared to the return of 2.4% of the broad market during the same period. The reference prices shown are at the time I published my post in i3investor. Figure 1 below shows the return of individual stock and the average portfolio return compared to KLSE.


For me I am quite happy with this return, especially there is no loser except for a minor loss of -0.3% for Plenitude which I put up just 10 days ago. Yes, the trick in investing is to take care of the downside and let the upside takes care of itself. Avoid the lemons and the good stocks will provide you with satisfactory return.

Conclusion
To build long term wealth for buying a house, children’s education and a comfortable retirement is a serious matter. It is certainly one of the top priorities in my life, no matter how busy I am in other things. I hope it must be one of your goals too. Trying to do that is not an easy by listening to hot tips and rumours as we stand no chance in speculating against the insiders, manipulators, the investment bankers, remisiers, institutional investors, analysts etc who have all the resources; money, computer and software power, information, etc.
Yes, you need a strong investing foundation in order to have a better chance to survive and thrive in the market. Those who are interested to join me in this starting point of your life-long journey of learning and investing, please email me at
ckc14training@gmail.com
No, it is not a course that will promise you the return of the above portfolio, rather a promise that you will learn something useful for your future investing experience, of how to fish on your own.
For those who have given your email address to me the last two days, please be informed that I will keep you posted soon.
Tis goeth down to a fundamental aspect that “An investment in knowledge pays the best interest”  Benjamin Franklin

K C Chong (16th September 2014)

Appendix
Table 1: New Portfolio Return
Stock
Ref Price
Dividend
Price now
Total return
Kuchai
1.20
0.00
1.44
20.0%
Prestariang
1.25
0.05
2.05
68.0%
Perak corp
3.69
0.085
3.62
0.4%
Magni
2.63
0.05
3.05
17.9%
Latitude
2.57
0.00
3.68
43.2%
MFCB
2.24
0.045
2.27
3.3%
Padini
1.75
0.055
1.89
11.1%
Pintaras
2.95
0.05
4.50
54.2%
Scientex
5.74
0
6.54
13.9%
Tasco
3.15
0
3.45
9.5%
MRCB Wa
0.275
0
0.280
1.8%
BIMB W
0.660
0
0.665
0.8%
Plenitude
3.15
0
3.14
-0.3%
Tong Her
2.35
0.06
2.3
0.4%
         
Average Return
xxxx
xxxx
xxxx
17.5%
KLSE
1813
xxxx
1856
2.4%

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