Tuesday, July 22, 2014

Half-year 2014 review on my NWC stocks.

As we approach July2014, market seems to be in euphoria status, and building up higher risk I think.
S&P in all time high nearing 2000 points, so is Dow Jones nearing 17,00. While having said so, both still above their 50MA, I've done some quick check on our KLCI also, which gives us same result. So for time being seems like everything is ok. Will there be any "Black Swan" effect soon?

In view of higher risk building, my strategy is simple. Stick to stock with highly defensive nature, almost recession proof, and also by using Net Working Capital way of stock picking, we are mostly safe when crisis hit. But you will be surprise also, human's emotional reaction will be extreme most of the time when market panic selling. This is the time when we go BIG! Thus, I would suggest building up reserve now, while stick to industry where I think can be recession proof:
Education-even in the toughest time, people will not give up education, because it is the way where one can change his own life and improve their living.
Utilities-Most utilities are recession proof due to its necessity nature, water, electricity are important factor for living.
Internet connection provider- It is a necessity in 21st century,almost the same as utilities.
General Insurance company-While people argued we can buy lesser insurance during tough times, but most of the countries nowadays enforce people to buy insurance for liabilities, such as car insurance, fire insurance. The basic insurance cover is made compulsory.



Chart forS&P 500 (^GSPC)
Chart forDow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI)

Now, lets review our performance for this 1H2014:
As you notice we have the purchase timing and prices in top right corner, below are timing of our purchases:
2013
Dec-ILB@0.72 ;PMCorp@0.24

2014
Jan-PMCorp@0.23
Feb-ILB@0.775, OSK@1.62

Apr-Pmcorp@0.215
As of latest prices, ILB traded RM0.845(+9% from the highest price we bought @RM0.775);PMCorp traded RM0.23(almost no gain or losses,luckily average some at RM0.215 during April time) ; OSK traded RM1.88(+16% from RM1.62)
I would consider myself lucky on above results, as market has been building up higher risk. I actually expect some losses to come near term as I thought the market will come with some correction after almost a year of non-stop bull run. I barely see any huge correction from the market, this is the most surprising thing I've ever experienced. Probably partly due to our Ringgit:Dollar strengths at current 3.20?

Anyway, I'm currently monitoring a few companies: Jobstreet, GBH, Keladi, LCTH, FACBInd.
I will share more on Jobstreet in near future, most of these companies are net cash, but not really attractive like ILB,PMCorp where net cash per share after total liabilities is even higher than their current market price. The same goes with FACBInd, however as I've mentioned earlier in other posts, I have some concern over how the management manage the funds as they have been using the money to fund another related company Kbunai which I do not have preferences.  Yet, I might review this is near future once I can get better picture.

I will review GBH-Keladi soon as the news is already out today and there will be most action in near future I think and they will be interesting.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
For dividend:
1。FPI-Div yield around 6%, 已经稳定派息好几年了。
2。Marco-Div yield around 9%,过去两年较高。不过应该可以稳定派4%
3。Parkson-不是派现金,但是派股票。 3:50,换算回来大概6%dividend.

For Asset play:
1.GSB Group-Sinma injecting property development into company? Will pump share price up a lot.
2.Mulpha-lots of land in Johor
3.Jobst-Buy after giving special div of RM2.40 or above.

No comments:

Post a Comment

白銀價格即市走勢