Friday, May 12, 2017

Petronm: It's Time for a Math Class

http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/sumato88/122720.jsp
Wow, I am so surprised that many ppl don't get my logic and my calculations for Petronm's 1Q17 profit. Let me put things in order and hopefully you can see it now.
1) Malaysia operations (listed co + 2 non-listed co in Malaysia owned by Petron Corp) reported Peso 1.5bn net profit in 1Q17, +335% yoy. So, 1Q16 net profit from Malaysia operation = Peso 345m
     Workings
       a) (1Q17 profit /1Q16 profit) - 1 = yoy growth
       B) (1500/345) - 1 = 335%  (In case you are still confuse, ask yourself, what's the yoy growth rate if your profit increase from 100 in     1Q16 to 150 in 1Q17? The answer is 50% right? Pls apply the same formula.)
2) Peso 345m net profit in 1Q16 equal to RM30m. This was the profit from Malaysia operation in 1Q16, including 2 non-listed co. So what's the profit belong to non-listed co? Petronm (listed co) reported RM16.6m net profit in 1Q16, so
       A) Petronm's 1Q16 profit + 2 non-listed co 1Q16 profit = RM30m
       B) RM16.6m + 2 non-listed co 1Q16 profit = RM30m
       C) 2 non-listed co 1Q16 profit = RM30m - RM16.6m = RM13.4m

3) Given that 2 non-listed co is involved in fuel marketing and retailing (basically means petrol stations la), the profit growth should be steady due to fixed margin, so it should grow in tandem with sales volume growth. Petron Corp mentioned Malaysia sales volume + 6% yoy in 1Q17, so we can safely assume 2 non-listed co profit grow 10% yoy in 1Q17, from RM13.4m to about RM15m.

4) So how much of RM130m or Peso 1.5bn 1Q17 profit attributes to Petronm?
   RM130m - RM15m (2 non-listed co estimated profit) = RM115m (42.6 EPS)

My final advise, if you still don't understand, please don't buy any stocks anymore as stock investment could be way too complicated for you.

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