Thursday, December 1, 2016

錢正在變成紙


當今社會,不論學什麼,有兩個必須懂,一個是互聯網,一個是金融。

不懂互聯網,就是新時代文盲,不懂金融,這輩子就只能賺死錢拿死工資。不會錢生錢,錢放在銀行只能貶值不會給你增值,更追不過通貨膨脹。唯有互聯網+金融是必然趨勢,沒有與時俱進,就只能被社會淘汰。人的一生會遇到很多人,會影響到我們,不斷成長。想要在網路上賺錢一定要找對平臺,跟對人,做對事,成就自己又能幫到朋友。所謂一個人有錢不如讓自己變得值錢。值錢之前我們求別人資源,值錢之後是別人求你。

如果你的夢想是創建屬於自己的基金,但是不知道該如何邁出第一步;如果你已經有了一個優秀的投資團隊,都很有信心,但對如何創業卻沒有清晰的認知;甚至是,如果你已經擁有了自己的私募公司,發行過基金產品,但是你卻不知道如何打造個人和公司品牌,不知道如何持續吸引投資人,不知道如何讓自己的公司更上一層樓。這樣的問題,我們在這幾年接觸到了很多。我們甚至打造了幾支基金來助一臂之力。但,這並不夠。如何才能解決這些私募創業團隊的海量需求?讓他們更專注自己的投資領域,從而更好的起步?


FDT就是在這樣的想法下誕生的。我們希望FDT能夠讓優秀的投資顧問獲得更加成熟、完善的投資理念;讓優秀的投顧團隊專業、高效的建立基金公司、發行產品;讓已經擁有私募基金的創始人能更好的打造個人和公司品牌、拓寬融資管道、與投資人建立良好關係。






2013年以來,我們看到了房地產市場一輪又一輪的暴升,房價升幅超過了大多數人的想像,多少沒買房的白領感歎,房價一升幾年的辛苦工作都白乾了,等於給房子白白打了幾年的工。房價暴升的主要原因之一就是負利率,因為錢越來越不值錢,居民都不會願意存款,為了避免自己的財富縮水,二十餘年的市場發展中,只有房地產依然保持著相對的穩定的保值增值比例,所以多餘的資金除了房地產似乎無處可去。

負利率時代,其實受到影響最小的應該是富裕階層,他們的收入多來自於資本利得,並且一般其負債都較高,因此,受到負利率的衝擊最小。

但是,受到影響最大的就是打工一族,即是你!工薪族因為其收入主要來源是工資收入,他們的生活往往是由其工資來決定的,這就意味著他們難以通過足夠的資本手段來提高收入。

在負利率的狀態下,會導致他們的收入差距與高收入群體越來越大,其可支配收入逐漸減小,消費能力逐漸降低,生活水準也就不可避免的進入下降階段。並且隨著降息降准的預期進一步加大,工薪族對於高風險投資的意願還會下降,這個時候,對於工薪族而言他們資產將會無法逃脫的進入下降通道,貧窮似乎就無限Loop在眼前了。

窮人到銀行存款,富人到銀行貸款。結果窮人越來越窮,富人越來越富!這告訴我們:把錢存銀行是蝕本的理財方式,收益卻少得可憐。貨幣面值所代表的購買力並不穩定,需要通過當時所能購買商品的價值來衡量。如果資金不能通過投資等方式獲得持續且較大的收益,那就意味著財產在不知不覺地流失!






多投資自己
面對著負利率時代的來臨,在保證日常開支,保證未來養老、醫療、子女教育等準備金儲備的前提下,通過消費改善生活也許是一種生活方式的選擇。很多人認為,在這樣的大背景下,錢花出去了才是自己的東西,在這樣的大環境下省錢一定會越來越窮

另一方面,這個時代最大的保值增值方式是投資自己,一切都會改變,唯有增加自己的實力和能力不會改變,通過學習,通過投資自己讓實力提升,可能才是應對未來一切變化的真正不二法門。

迎接深港通,2017年私募明天正式開始。可電郵查詢


FDT集團香港.上海.杭州.深圳.台北

香港金融數據技術有限公司|Financial Data Technologies Limited FDTFinancial Data Technologies的縮寫,代表三個核心組織板塊。 FDT的業務致力於構建金融生態,打造金融跑道。透過長期的金融教育項目「FDT金融創新工場」,在全球範圍內致力於培養金融交易人才,普及金融實踐教育,同時透過集團旗下各種金融牌照業務、大數據團隊和IT系統的持續投入,為全球交易員團隊和優秀基金經理提供專業的交易通道和電子商務式的金融平台,為客戶提供全球資產配置的財富管家服務。

香港金融數據證券有限公司|FDT Securities Limited 香港金融數據證券有限公司(FDT證券)(中央編號:ABM126
為一根據《證券及期貨條例》獲發牌進行第一類 (證券交易)及第四類 (就證券提供意見)受規管活動之持牌法團。是香港聯合交易所之參與者,為專業機構和個人客戶提供連通港股、滬港通、深港通、美股以至全球市場經紀和證券交易服務。隨著滬港通和深港通的開通,香港將繼續加強作為國際金融中心的定位。 FDT證券立足香港,專注為高淨值客戶提供一對一的、一站式的財富管家服務,以及為機構客戶提供連通港股和全球資本市場高速低延時的交易通道和平台,力爭成為機構客戶首選投資兩岸三地和全球市場的金融跑道、高淨值客戶進行海外資產配置的最佳一站式券商平台。

FDT金融創新工場|FDT Incubator FDT金融創新工場
是一個以培養金融人才為出發點的公益專案,是投資交易愛好者的專屬全球化社交網路,目的是發掘、培養和成就優秀操盤手。FDT操盤手App是為普通用戶量身打造的免費交易學習與實踐的金融類軟體。

FDT操盤手:玩賺全球金融市場|FDT Trader FDT操盤手
是一款快速高效的金融交易APP,覆蓋了全球金融市場的主要交易類型。用戶不僅可以在APP裡學習金融知識,基於實時金融市場數據進行模擬交易訓練,獲得收益提成,還可以開戶進行實盤交易,斬獲高額利潤。 FDT操盤手具有金融社交功能,在交易之餘,用戶還可以與來自世界各地懷有同樣金融夢想的投資愛好者、職業交易員以及金融界投資人士直接交流。

FDT財富管家|FDT Wealth Butler FDT財富管家App
一站式財富管理移動端軟體,投資組合的狀況一目了然,具有港股、滬港通、美股的交易功能,並支援銀證轉帳,通過App轉換,無須費用、立即到帳,並具備與理財經理的即時通信功能。



FDT交易能力評分|FDT Score
最客觀交易能力及勝任力評估體系 FDT交易能力評分,是基於牛津大學NIE金融大數據實驗室研究的FDT勝任力模型,通過分析用戶在FDT操盤手上的每一筆交易記錄,得出有針對性的交易能力得分和勝任力評估報告。用戶可以全面直觀地了解自己在投資交易方面的優勢與不足。揚長避短,對自己的投資適當的調整,提升操盤能力,找到專屬的、有效的交易法與策略。

FDT全球大學生投資大賽|FDT World Trading Cup


2016814日,首屆FDT全球大學生投資大賽、FDT-清華全球高校量化投資大賽在上海舉行決賽及頒獎典禮。是為大學生量身打造,獨家免費提供實盤交易機會的投資類比賽。歷時1年多,舉行上百場比賽,有來自全球100多個國家和地區,3萬多名大學生選手參與,比賽總獎金近百萬元,獲勝團隊獲得實盤基金。未來FDT還將繼續舉辦這類比賽,支持大學生成就金融創業夢想。

Thursday, November 24, 2016

Better times seen for MSC this year

Lets remind ourselves again
THE sharp recovery in the global tin prices is a boon for tin miner and metal producer, Malaysia Smelting Corp Bhd (MSC).

Its share price in recent months has been on an uptrend touching a high of RM3.26 on Sept 8 from a low of RM2.21 on Feb 3 before settling two sen higher at RM3.20 on Thursday.
Year-to-date, the price of tin has risen by over 30%. The metal is currently trading at US$19,200-US$19,270 per tonne range on the London Metal Exchange (LME) and Kuala Lumpur Tin Market (KLTM).
According to industry observers, the fortunes of MSC are set to take a turn for the better this year after experiencing a 6-1/2 year slump in global tin prices.
 
Since early this year, tin has climbed steadily following declining supplies from the world’s top producing countries China and Indonesia.
The LME tin stocks in its warehouses are also depleting, down by 20% to about 4,460 tonnes in September from a month earlier.
MSC is the world’s second largest tin mining and smelting group with an annual refined tin production of over 30,000 tonnes.
It has an international smelting operation in Butterworth and tin mining operation is managed by its subsidiary Rahman Hydraulic Tin Sdn Bhd (RHT).
With tin prices improving, MSC chief executive officer, Chua Cheong Yong (pic) is optimistic that MSC international smelting plant and RHT mines are expected to perform satisfactorily and will generate strong cash flows for the current financial year ending Dec 31.
“While the overall refined tin production is not likely to change much, profit margin, especially on the mining side, will see some expansion in the environment of higher tin prices,” he adds.
Chua tells StarBizWeek: “We will continue to subscribe to the commodity price cycles model and, in our view, the main challenge for any resource based industry is to be able to build a business model and structure that will be resilient enough to ride through these cycles.”
“The current rally for tin is more supply driven rather than demand related. While tin demand is currently stable, the growth potential is expected to be realised only in the mid-term scenario as tin use in energy related industrial applications, particularly in the battery sector, gathers momentum.
Chua says MSC has been resilient to withstand the severe down cycle, particularly in 2015, which caused significant operating losses and large asset impairments by major global mining and commodity trading companies alike.
The management’s initiatives last year at implementing cost-cutting measures and being frugal in expenditure have strengthened the Group.
“Despite the difficult and challenging market environment in 2015 our core operations, were able to achieve commendable performances and the Group’s cash and liquidity positions have continued to remain strong.”
MSC’s financial position continues to be healthy as the operations generated strong cash flows of RM90.8mil in the first half of 2016.
In June this year, MSC has proposed to acquire Metal Reclamation Industries Sdn Bhd (MRI) through its wholly-owned subsidiary MSmelt Sdn Bhd for RM50mil in cash.
Chua says: “Therefore, the company’s current year focus will be to complete the acquisition by fourth quarter of this year.”
“As a result we will not, in the near term, be actively seeking for new tin investments opportunities.”
Chua explains further that one of the current company’s priorities is to complete the MRI acquisition and then to adapt and convert the MRI plant for tin smelting and integrate it into the group’s international tin smelting operations.
The MRI plant, which is located in Pulau Indah, possesses the new generation smelting technology which is a more comprehensive and efficient smelting process as compared to MSC Group’s smelting facility in Butterworth.
Besides more superior cost and operating parameters, the new technology is also better suited to address the increasingly stringent environmental requirements.
He also says: “We believe this technology will propel MSC Smelting Division into a more sustainable and competitive custom smelting force in the global tin industry.”
For Rahman Hydraulic Tin , the exploration programme to expand the mine’s resource base is ongoing, says Chua adding that: “We hope to be able to complete the programme in the near term. These priorities should keep us busy at least for the next couple of years.”
Having said that, Chua adds the group will still continue to invest in its future, even at times when (tin) prices are low.
Besides ongoing exploration programmes to expand the group’s tin resources, MSC has also participated in the private placement of Alphamin Resources Corp in 2015 to increase its equity interest in the company to 5%.
Alphamin is a Toronto Venture Exchange listed developer of the Bisie project, a very high grade tin prospect located in Democratic Republic of Congo.
“We believe the small entry investment will provide MSC Group with favourable and interesting growth opportunities when the cycle turns.”
“The movement in commodity prices, the stability of the local currency and any major policy adjustments in the advanced and emerging economies will continue to have impact on the group performances in today’s challenging macroeconomic environment,” adds Chua.

Tuesday, November 22, 2016

Tin Prices Seen Extending Climb as Global Shortages to Last

Bloomberg) -- Tin, which has surged more than 40 percent this year, is set to keep advancing amid continued shortages because supply is not coming on fast enough, according to Peter Kettle, chief analyst at research group ITRI Ltd.
Prices may rise to about $30,000 a metric ton in 2018-2019, Kettle said at an industry conference in Shanghai, an increase of 42 percent from the level now. The market will have a deficit of 10,000 tons to 15,000 tons this year and a similar shortfall in 2017, he said on Tuesday. Tin is among the top picks for researcher CRU Group next year, said Susan Gao, head of consulting in China.
Tin, used for soldering in electronics, has gained to the highest level in more than two years, and is the best performer after zinc on the London Metal Exchange in 2016. Top shipper Indonesia has curbed exports and inventories in sheds tracked by the LME have slumped to the lowest since 2004. Tin and zinc are “the standout stories in terms of structural supply constraints capable of tightening the market,” Standard Chartered Plc said last month.
“We’re in a very long-term trend of declining stockpiles,” Kettle said. “If stocks fall much further, we will get to a critical point that prices could go much higher than the medium-term equilibrium” of about $22,500 a ton, he said. ITRI is a U.K.-based company which supports the industry and helps to expand the metal’s use. The group is backed by producers and smelters.
Shipments by Indonesia, the world’s largest exporter, plunged to 52,617 tons in the first 10 months of this year, the lowest for the period in at least a decade, from 61,713 tons a year earlier, Trade Ministry data show. Global supply trailed demand by 20,500 tons in the first eight months of 2016, according to data from the World Bureau of Metal Statistics. LME-tracked stockpiles have fallen by more than half since May.
Refined output in the country may drop to about 60,000 tons this year, Jabin Sufianto, head of the Association of Indonesia Tin Exporters, said in September. That compares with 67,350 tons in 2015 and would be the lowest since 2002, according to WBMS data. Kettle said on Tuesday that Indonesian supply will be about 60,000 tons in the medium term.
While Indonesia’s production has been hurt by rains and mining regulations, it could be 60,000 tons to 70,000 tons this year and may rise slightly in 2017 if the weather improves, Riza Pahlevi Tabrani, president director of top producer PT Timah, said in an interview. Timah’s shares have more than doubled in 2016 and reached the highest in two years this month.
Prices above $22,500 are needed in the medium term to spur the supply required to balance moderate growth in demand, said Tom Mulqueen, an ITRI analyst. While Bolivian production is set to rise, output in China, Indonesia and Peru is faltering, he said. Tin for delivery in three months time added 1.2 percent to $21,100 on the LME by 10:48 a.m. in London on Tuesday.
Along with tin, Gao from CRU said at the conference that crude oil, nickel and zinc were also among her top choices for next year and that commodity prices overall were poised to rise further.
(Updates to add comment in penultimate paragraph.)
©2016 Bloomberg L.P.

Tuesday, November 8, 2016

November Tin price

NOVEMBER 2016 TIN PRICES 
DATEUSDRMEXCHANGE RATETURNOVER
120,65086,5194.189835
220,80087,4224.203029
320,75087,0054.193045
421,15088,8934.203028
721,53090,7274.214051
822,00092,6864.213041
921,70091,3244.208528
1021,70092,2904.253035
1121,60092,4164.278541
1421,35092,4354.329564
1521,00091,1824.342042
1620,05087,3184.355055
1720,05087,9594.387022
1820,100N.Y.AN.Y.A31
http://www.mtpma.org.my/index.php/statistic/2014-07-07-04-56-57

Thursday, November 3, 2016

Global Tin Market

Tin solder is the largest end-use sector now accounting for 48% of global demand. The demand for tin solder is driven by substitution for lead solder and growth in demand for consumer electronics. Lower growth in consumer electronics and thrifting have reduced solder’s market share from 54% at the peak in 2010 to 48% in 2014.
t1
Demand 2010
Demand 2014

Lead-acid batteries, the fastest growing end-use, represented 7% of the market in 2014. Chemical uses are also growing rapidly rising to 16% in 2014.
Tinplate for food cans was the second largest end-use in 2010. However, greater growth in other sectors have reduced its market share to 15% in 2014.
China is now the largest consumer of tin due to rapid growth in electronics manufacturing – it accounts for 35% of the global market.
Global tin demand is 365,000 tonnes or $9 billion dollars at a long-term price of US$25,000 per tonne.
Primary tin production at 290,000 tonnes has failed to meet demand for several years with growth in secondary supply to 75,000 tonnes required to bridge the gap.
China and Indonesia are the largest primary producers of tin accounting for 67% of global production. Both countries are likely to face declining supply due to falling grade and rising costs. Other established producers in South America and Africa face similar issues.
world map
Declining stocks suggest that secondary may not grow fast enough to meet demand growth and cover the loss of primary supply.
New production from the Heemskirk Tin Project and other proposed tin developments is required to help bridge the supply-demand gap in the future.
Rising London Metal Exchange tin prices reflect the need for new sources of supply.
tin-prices
tin-exports
chinese-tin-imports

Monday, October 31, 2016

Is Ekovest investible? - felicity

from felicity.
http://www.intellecpoint.com/2016/11/is-ekovest-investible.html
After the article on Ekovest a month ago, its share price has since rose from circa RM1.95 to now around RM2.18.

(Before I deliberate on this topic, I would like to insist, I have always been very careful when putting my positive comments on a company as it has to be a long term value stock. My definition of a long term value stock is always about one potentially can be putting away his/her money for years as investments and the fundamental of the company has to be of creating value to its investors. Value investment is always a subject of debate as is it just an undervalued stock or is it also a very good company which will consistently provide better value than other companies among its peers. In my perspective, it is always more of the latter where it will continuously provide investment value, than the former i.e just cheap stocks but can also be poor in terms of business performance.)  

Ekovest to me is putting itself to be a company with recurring revenue from its assets although at this moment, it is still more of a construction company. I will put the composition of its construction:property:toll businesses at the moment to be as follows 60:15:25. (I know, I am aware of how I described Gadang)

In 3-4 years down the road though, Ekovest is going to be a very different company. That is very important to me as its composition will be more like 35:15:50 in the order of construction:property:toll. Why?

Its toll business itself may potentially be even bigger than LITRAK. As it is, for DUKE 1, after its 6th to 7th year of operations it has started to register good profits (cashflow wise, would be even better). By the time DUKE 2 and SPE becomes operational, it could be a very substantial toll operator than a construction outfit. (I would be even more amazed if its construction arm is to be just as big, which means that it will be getting more jobs)

Yesterday, in a Q&A session, the CEO of EPF put down that for his private equity investments, he is looking at IRR of between 10% to 13%. He further mentioned,

“If you look at the types of assets that we have been investing in, they would typically have an IRR range of between 10% and 13%, depending on the risk profile of the assets, the tenure of the concessions and the security of cashflows
“For instance, a power plant asset which has secured power purchase agreements would be in the lower range, while something that has a bit more revenue volatility would be in the higher range,”
I will take it that for DUKE as it has some volatility, EPF is probably looking at around 11%. In today's low interest rate environment, where US is offering almost zero, 11% is very high. I would not mind putting my money in stable investment which returns 11% IRR.

From that perspective, I will take the positives and negatives - if I am an investor of Ekovest, it is willing to let go 40% for 11% IRR, this is a negative. I am sure that it can get better deals elsewhere.

From a positive standpoint, Ekovest still has 60% of that asset which it stands to gain 11% IRR at valuetion of (RM2.825 billion) still for more than 40 years (in fact more, as a concession investment such as DUKE has a definite concession period, hence when doing a DCF it will take into account that definite period - not indefinite period in which case they use terminal value). So for any investors, even putting money for DUKE already has his money worth with very strong IRR. For me, if the IRR of 11% is right, Ekovest's 60% ownership could translate into at least a good multiple of what the EPF is paying for as concession assets has good value - just look at LITRAK which still enjoys 16x PE despite its concession to remain around 15 years?

And as mentioned in previous article, what about Ekovest's other assets such as SPE, its construction business and property projects? They must have worth some good numbers as well.

Is it investible though?

Now, after the above, is Ekovest an investible stock? There are several benchmarks to a company. Firstly, even if it is to make money, bring in good cashflow (remember, some red chips (China's) companies showed profits, cashflow but without or little dividends) - would the management be ready to share part of it in the form of dividends? Here are the track record of the company's dividend payment since 2000.

Dividend and net profit of Ekovest from FY2000 to 2016
I am quite comfortable as although for certain years, its dividends to net profits dropped (2012 - 2013) - that, I believe was mainly due to the company needed funds for the acquisition of DUKE assets. Ekovest does pay dividends every single year during the period in review.

The management has mentioned of its willingness to pay some of its return of RM1.13 billion to shareholders. That has yet to be announced. If I am to read its cashflow requirement, the amount should not be too low - i.e. less than RM100 million.

Another thing which was of concern to me was that the free float for Ekovest was way too low for some time - somewhere in the range of 5% to 10% as it is still a very tightly held stock - through Lim Kang Hoo's family, Haris Hussein (brother of Hishamuddin Hussein) and an old partner of Lim Kang Hoo, Khoo Nang Seng. In the last few months, the two groups except for Lim Kang Hoo has disposed off some of their shares. One may think that they are selling early which is a bad sign, but that has also translated into more liquidity for the market. (Frankly, I do not know how to read this.)

Ekovest has not been a much followed stock because funds do not like low liquidity stocks especially the sell side brokers. They are not able to introduce much to their clients as there are not much stocks to buy. That to me is changing for Ekovest. If I am to read right, some if not all portion of Haris Hussein's sale 6 months ago went to several funds.

As it is still at good value, I see the funds coming in a bigger way - as they are becoming visible for the bigger guys. That's how I see it as it is surfacing some of its value.

Sunday, October 30, 2016

A follow up on MSC.

Many might have overlooked this news. Beside steels, tin production in China is actually going through process of de_overcapacity.
http://cn.reuters.com/article/home-tin-idCNKCS0V30TX





撰稿/Andy Home
路透伦敦1月22日 - 中国的主要锡生产商已加入到减产的潮流中来,宣布今年将把产量减少1.7万吨。
就像中国其他基本金属生产商的减产声明一样,表面上看这是自律行为,但实际上它或许没那么简单。
但减产若得到落实,将有助于进一步收紧锡市。早在最近这波大宗商品价格跌势之前,锡市就已经面临结构性的供应问题。
锡市的紧俏表现为,伦敦金属交易所(LME)仓库的锡库存长期处于低位,结果导致近月价差持续面临着压力。
**减产实为求救**
据国际锡研究协会(ITRI)称,中国是最大的锡生产国,承诺减产的九家锡生产商的产量合计相当于中国总产量的约80%和全球产量的40%。
1.7万吨的减产规模等于在2015年锡产量基础上减少12%,相当于全球产量的4-5%。
但是,跟中国其他金属商宣布的协作减产举动一样,锡生产商这么做实际上是在向中央政府求救。
根据这九家厂商的说法。锡价“已与基本面相背离”,潜台词就是“目前锡价低迷不是我们的错,这是投机者造成的。”
面对这种市场不理性,厂商呼吁政府对锡进行战略收储。
而这才是上述声明的真正用意。
从目前北京与中国金属冶炼厂之间的搏弈来看,似乎是若要让政府救助,那么行业整体上必须减产能。
但一个明确的推论就是,中国锡冶炼商坐拥大量的未售库存。
考虑到已经存在的产出下滑,这说明了作为全球最大锡消费国的需求状况有多差。
的确,锡使用正面临自身的结构性挑战,即焊料微型化。而据国际锡研究协会(ITRI),去年锡需求萎缩幅度估计略超3%。
这显然已经导致了中国国内市场的过剩,其中一部分已在过去几个月输往国际市场,不过是以一种未在中国贸易数据上体现的方式。
浏览印尼锡出口量图表,请点选(tmsnrt.rs/1WAgydZ)
**印尼出口仍在下滑**
讽刺的是,全球市场可能真的需要一些这种中国非正式的锡出口。
因为印尼的出口供应持续下滑。印尼是全球第二大产锡国,但却是最大的锡出口国。
根据印尼贸易部的出口公证检验资料,去年印尼的锡出口量降至70,154吨,低于2014年的75,927吨。这是连续第三年出口下滑,而且2016年只可能继续这个趋势。
锡出口的减少,是受到两个因素的联合作用,一是因为印尼政府逐步取缔邦加岛及勿里洞岛上的独立产锡商势力,一是锡的低价格。
值得注意的是,印尼商品及衍生品交易所(ICDX)几乎毫无成交,这个交易所实质上设有一个最低价格机制。
对于所有锡出口必须在ICDX交易后才能出口的规定貌似有所放松,因为尽管LME的锡价格徘徊在六年低点附近,该国照样有锡出口。
不过ICDX缺乏成交的事实显示,价格压力正在打击印尼锡生产商,其中许多都是小型私营公司。
在印尼之外的全球地区,在锡矿石品级下滑的情况下,其他大型锡产商多数都是采取以不变应万变。
近几年唯一重大的新增供应来源是缅甸,而缅甸的全部锡产量都运往中国,以弥补中国矿产量下滑。
综合作用的结果就是,虽然锡需求持续萎缩,供应萎缩速度可能更快。
**库存低,价差紧**
这股供应动能萎缩的影响明显见诸于伦敦市场。LME去年库存减少49%,或5,995吨,而目前的可交易库存(Open tonnage)为4,890吨,从任何过往水准来看都是偏低的。
上海期交所在2015年3月推出锡合约以来,也没有太多锡进入上期所仓库。目前总注册库存仅有696吨。
值得注意的是,尽管近月合约价差益发收紧,LME库存仍维持在低水平。近月价差有好几个月时间在正逆价差之间反覆来回,但却未能吸引够多的金属让LME库存显着回升。
本周,价差再次出现收紧,指标LME现货/三个月期货价差周四收报每吨逆价差45美元。
市场盛传这是因为出现一个大型多仓。LME回溯前两日的仓位报告尚未反映出这一点,但鉴于库存如此之低,显然LME报告上也未必需要出现一个超大仓位才能有如此效果。
此外,未来三个主要月度交割日期的仓位分布高度密集<0#LME-FBR>。2月合约有四笔空仓将与四笔多仓对决,其中一笔多仓规模相当大,占30-40%的未平仓合约,相当于2,800-3,700吨。
这意味着未来可能有更多价差收紧的情况;在LME库存回升之前,逆价差仍将是伦敦锡市的一大特色。
**既是好消息,也是坏消息**
在这种全球整体情势下,中国承诺的减产,对锡价而言好坏参半。
好消息是如果中国减产数量符合承诺,虽然可能性有点低,那么这将解决掉全球供应链之中那个明显有供应过剩的环节。
因为其他任何地区几乎都没有供应过剩的迹象。
而在当前环境下,供应控制被视为价格相对表现强弱的关键决定因素,因此锡的条件便优于其他工业金属。
坏消息则是,中国生产商手上仍有大量未售出库存的意涵。否则他们为什么会要求政府开始收储?
因此未来几个月,只要上海--伦敦套利交易有利可图时,就有可能出现更多中国那种定位模糊的锡出口,如同去年第四季的情况。
在中国政府的协助下囤积锡,或许会化解出现更多中国锡出口悄悄外流的迫切风险,但并未真正解决上海锡价偏低的根本原因。
而减产会有效果,但中国当局会向中国产锡商要求多大程度的减产配合,作为伸出援手的交换条件,仍有待观察。(完)
(编译/审校 白云/王洋/李婷仪/陈宗琦/龚芳/高琦/蔡美珍/刘秀红)