Friday, September 25, 2015

李嘉诚首次公开回复国人

很多时候,我的选择,是因为我没有其他更好的选择,不是因为我想进行这样的艰难选择。
  我是一个商人,希望大家不要给我戴上什么帽子,无论高的,还是矮的,我都不想有。因为我不是道德家、教育家、更不是什么阴谋家、政治家,我仅仅就是一个商人而已。了解这一点,你就很容易读懂我的自我辩护。
  很多时候,我的选择,是因为我没有其他更好的选择,不是因为我想进行这样的艰难选择。
  1928年我出生在中国广东潮州,出生时没有什么特殊的异象,预示我以后成为一个伟大的企业家,或者是一名出色的奸商。目前各种关于我的各种传记,绝大多数是基于文学演绎的穿凿附会,你们都不要信。如果我可以选择我的出生,我宁愿出生在富庶和平的国家。
  和多数普通潮汕人一样,父亲安排我祭拜孔子儒学,进入观海寺小学念书,读的是一些传统爱国爱家的思想书籍。我成绩既不优秀,也不很差,我就是一个普通的孩子,放在街头,站在村口,和其他人没有什么异样。
  如果没有战争,或者我就留在潮州,不会来香港,那么我可能度过平庸的一生,也或者过早死于战火,或者过早死于饥荒和疾病。当然,也可能侥幸度过这些劫难,现在潮州的某一个街道或村庄,悠闲地踱着步伐,没有被批判,也没有鲜花和掌声。当然,很可能比现在贫穷很多,但不一定就不如现在幸福。
  因为日本侵华,我逃到了香港。同时因为后来的中国内战,我留在了香港没有返回潮州,我的故事因此开启,人生被彻底改变。请注意这个关键点,这些并不是我想要的,不是我主动选择的。
  我也被时代的大潮裹挟到了香港,不是荣耀的移民,而是逃离的难民。
  我到世界其他地方可能是为了经商和学习,但是我回到潮州故里访亲,纯粹是寻找一份家的感觉。
  有一些东西不是我想要的,也不是我主动能选择的,这一点很重要。这就是我的命运,我的人生。
  但是我在最艰难的被动选择里,选择了相对较好的结果,这是我的成功之处。如果人生可以重来,我宁愿不要这些艰难的选择。我希望我的孩子们、我的同事们、甚至每一个中国人,都能有主动选择的余地,从容安排他们的人生,不像我李嘉诚。
  我从普通的学徒、店员、街头推销员一步一步做起来的,直到塑料花厂的总经理。在其中我积累了不少经验,那段时间虽然过得非常辛苦,但是非常充实而快乐。我早早失学,没有读过太多的书,但是社会就是最好的学堂,我一直在学习,没有停止过,直到现在。我充分理解失学的痛苦,所以后来援建了汕头大学。
  如果我能选择,我愿意坐在汕头大学的课堂,而不是香港的写字楼里。
  我也不是白手起家,我创业的时候得到妻子家族的帮助,这一点我从不讳言。不要把我打扮成白手起家的商业之神,我感谢在我创业之初支持和帮助我的所有人。不过我并不是什么富二代、也没有去吃软饭,我最终靠的是自己的能力,还有天时和运气。网上流传的白手起家和完全靠朋友支持的两个极端,都非事实。
  上个世纪五六十年代,香港的来料加工业兴起,欧美的生产转移到香港,这是我的机会。现在回头看来,我成为所谓的“塑胶花大王”,并不是因为我多厉害,只是顺应了时势而已。即使没有我,也有其他人能够享有此名。事实上,我只是“塑胶花大王之一”,擅自称王,是对其他成功同行的不敬。
  真正困难的第一次抉择,来自1967年香港的左派闹事,导致香港的房地产一落千丈,那时候我的损失也很大。这时候有一些人卖掉了房子和土地,离开了香港。而我认为香港终将度过这些风波,于是买进了不少土地。
  很多人认为我有眼光、低价收购土地储备。其实没有人关心我暗地里的担忧,私底下的恐慌。
  如果左派闹事成功,我将一文不名,甚至成为资本家的反面典型,在香港跳楼的名单中,就有我的名字,而不是在福布斯富豪榜上。
  在这个过程中,风险和利益都是巨大的,也是均沾的。
  我不认为这有什么道德准则和商业原则的错误,它就是一桩生意而已,可能赚,也可能亏,而且是如履薄冰、如临深渊的高风险生意。
  任何过度的解读都是阴谋论,都是事后诸葛亮。
  其后从我们长江实业的上市,到购入老牌英资商行“和记黄埔”的部分股权,都是地地道道的生意。有钱赚是生意人的根本价值,做生意要遵从双方互惠互利的基本原则,当年购买我们股票的股民们也都有丰厚的利润。虽然因为缘分我心怀感恩,但本质上是合法、合理的,相互都不需介怀什么。
  说得比较远了,我说一下现在网上各种对我的指责,说我忘恩负义,唯我是利,占了便宜之后转移资产到欧洲,面对经济危机不是承担责任而是全面撤资、影响到中国的面子和信心,并高呼“别让李嘉诚跑了”。甚至说香港目前的经济停滞困难,是我们这些“豪族”畸形的经济手法导致的。
  我想写这类文章和赞成这些观点的,也是抱持善意,他们爱国爱民的心我能理解。但是他们不懂起码的商业原则,以及市场经济的运作真相,甚至于,他们不懂真正的人性。
  让我们回到上个世纪70年代末文革结束、90年代初重启改革、97年香港回归之际,香港的社会波诡云谲,各种传言甚嚣尘上,对是否改革开放、是否会回到文革、是否会全面实现市场经济、是否保持一国两制等重大问题,抱有疑虑的非常多。
  在每一个政治关键的节点,都有大量的动摇者裹足不前,甚至逃之夭夭。每一个人都面对这些艰难的选择。
  我只是一个商人,在每一个关键节点的选择上,我认为风险与利益同在,和很多人判断不同。于是我在大陆遍地投资,港口、地产、金融、科技等领域都有涉及。指责我的文章说我与官方走的很近,利用了权力资源。这是典型的事后判断。
  回到当年,
  我选择与官方进行合作,官方在政治上同样获得了巨大的回报,这本质上依旧是一门生意,尤其是风险和利益同在且巨大的生意。
  我感谢当时的官方和政府,我也帮助了他们,带来了急需的资金、技术和人才,让香港乃至全球商界对中国更有信心。
  在本质上,我们可以相互感恩,但是互不相欠,这就是生意。
  中国经济整体依旧是向好的,这个我肯定。13亿的人口和960万平方公里的土地,机会肯定是无限的。但是经过了这么多年的高速增长,以及信贷过度,已经来到了一个峰值,下一步会怎么样,我也不会贸然下结论,但具有较大的不确定性。
  商人的首要目标是让资本更安全,其次才是增值更快。
  我当年大举投资大陆和现在全球布局,时间点不一样,考虑的自然不一样,但都是基于这样的考虑。除此以外,没有其他原因。就是现在,我在大陆依旧还有不少投资。
  如《别让李嘉诚跑了》一文所说,1967年、70年代末、90年代初、97年香港回归这些重要的节点,我的选择正确,因而获得了巨大的利益。
  但事实上,正常的商业是不需要经过这种政治选择的,而是相对纯粹的经济考量。有正常的政治氛围和良好的商业环境,就不会存在谁跑不跑的问题。存在这个问题,恰恰就是问题的根源所在。
  在职业上,我是一个纯粹的商人,不要用那些空洞的道德来衡量我。如果不能做一个成功的商人,那我的职业是失败的,人生也是残缺的。
  不赚钱的商人不是好商人,也没有资本利润去做善事。
  很多人认为,商业赚了钱之后,应该回报社会。这个我是认同的。但是如何回报社会,这个分歧巨大。难道商人应该亏本,去补贴国家和政府吗?这显然是荒谬的。
  我们回报社会,首要条件就是赢利、赚钱,这样才能回报人民。
  企业没有教导人民的责任和义务,宗教和教育才是。我们通过守法经营以身作则,同时用资本捐助学校来达到教育的目的,通过捐助贫民来达到扶助的目的。如果我们亏钱,那什么都不可能去做。如果我直接去搞教育,一定比专业的大专院校来的差。
  这就是最好的商业,最好的教育。
  香港需要寻找未来,大陆需要寻找未来,大中华区需要寻找未来,全世界都需要寻找未来。
  但是我需要寻找的只是利润。地产、金融可以,教育、科技也可以,对我来说,谁是趋势、谁利润更大才是我要考虑的,而不是空洞的政治考量和虚假的道德说教。不要试图让商人去承担国家的政治责任,也不要试图用政治去影响商人的经营理念。
  上帝的归上帝,凯撒的归凯撒,商业的归商业,政治的归政治。我就是一个商人,会去努力理解政治,但是我绝不僭越政治,那是政治家们的事情。
  我今年87岁了,已经是古稀之年,安全比利润对我来说更重要。我从来就不是大家说的是什么超人,我可能算是一个成功的商人,但我其实更是一个普通的人,甚至是一个老人。我希望我的人生能画上一个完美的句号,而不想在晚年再横生枝节。我也希望我的家人和我的商业在我故去之后,正常运转,得到良好的继承。
  我最后反复强调一点,我是一个商人,也是一个慈善人士,但绝不是政治家、教育家等。我参与兴建汕头大学、汕头大学附属医院、潮州的安居工程等,前后达到150亿港元,且绝大多数都花在大中华区。这都是纯粹捐献,没有任何利益可图。这是我最引以为骄傲的所在。能为家乡人做事,能为祖国尽一份力量,是我的荣幸。
  我只是可能用的钱多一点,但是和其他人的捐献一样,同是一份心意而已,不高什么,也不低什么。
  汕头大学的毕业典礼,我风雨无阻地前去参加,力所能及地以过来人说说一些人生经验,但绝没有任何姿态,那里纯粹是老师们的课堂。
  我希望大家不要把我神化,也不要把我妖魔化,其实我像你们现在的同事,也像你邻居的老头而已。
  我和他们一样犯过错误,也和他们一样慈祥友爱。我承担了我的错误,也获得了我的荣耀,我的人生由我自己负责,你们每一个人同样也是。
  不要给我过多的褒扬,也没有必要泼给我很多脏水,虽然我不在意自己的感受,但是我在意你对你自己心灵的灼伤,以及毒化中国人脆弱的舆论环境。
  我的生意或许部分不在中国,但是我的心一直在这里,根依旧扎在这里。我是潮汕人,也是香港人,还是中国人,也是加拿大籍,最终我们都是地球村的居民。我爱我的家乡,我爱我的故乡,我爱我的祖国,我也爱我们共同居住的地球,我的爱真挚而深沉,和你一样。
  李嘉诚不会跑,也不愿跑,更跑不了。这是我的真心话,也是我的誓言。

Tuesday, September 22, 2015

Investing for long term wealth, what have worked in Bursa? kcchongnz

"The secret to successful investing is to figure out the value of something and then-pay a lot less"               Joel Greenblatt
There are tons of academic research in the US showing what have worked in the US stocks market, the European markets as well as some of the more matured markets such as those in Japan, Hong Kong and maybe Taiwan. I have been trying to find out if there is any academic research showing what have worked in Bursa, but to no avail, probably I haven’t tried hard enough. Over the last one year, I have done some crude research as what have worked in Bursa as detailed in this article.
The compilation of my results appended in the link below shows the simple strategy of investing in low Price-to-earnings ratio investing strategy on a portfolio of 104 stocks with a 5-year holding period from November 2009 to October 2014 provided a total compounded annual rate of return, CAR of 17.6%, compared to the 10.8% of the broad market, or an annual alpha of 6.8% a year for 5 years.
http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/62822.jsp

The next investment strategy I have shown for Bursa is the high dividend yield investing strategy holding a portfolio of stock for a period of 5 years from October 2009 to October 2014 in this link.
 http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/62033.jsp
The total CAR of the 35 high dividend stocks was 16% a year with a median of 12.2%. Both are higher than the return of the market of about 10.8% during the same period. That is not bad at all.

Next, I have shown that using the Coldeye冷眼 5 yardsticks investing strategy, From May 2013 to 30th April 2015, the average total return of the 9 stocks chosen meeting the yardsticks is 186.4% in about two years, with the median return of 75.3%. This return way out-performed the total return of 18.5% of KLCI over the same period as shown in the appended link below.
http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/75946.jsp

I have also demonstrated that a balance sheet investing strategy using the Graham net net current asset value also outperformed the market in the one year period from May 2013 to May 2014. The net net portfolio set up within the past one year returned 34.6%, more than twice the return of the broad market of KLCI of 16.0% during the same period as shown in the appended link below.
http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/52382.jsp

All the above investing strategies, besides Coldeye 5 yardsticks which basically combined goodness with cheapness, are based on cheapness of a company, the very basic principle of value investing. I have shown that value investing has worked in the matured US market here:
http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/50988.jsp
The reasons why they have worked and will continue to work are also well explained in the above article. My own personal experience of why value investing works in Bursa is more based on the Joel Greenblatt’s magic Formula Investing Strategy, which like the Coldeye 5- yardsticks, are based on a combination of cheapness and goodness, albeit with a little more sophisticated metrics.

The Magic Formula
The key driving formulas used by Greenblatt for his Magic Formula are:
  • Earnings Yield = EBIT / Enterprise Value
  • Return on Capital = EBIT / (Fixed Assets + Net Working Capital)
    • Enterprise value = Market capitalization + total debts + MI –non-operating assets
    • Fixed assets generally is the property, plant and equipment
    • Net working capital = Receivables + Inventories – Payable
    • Ebit is earnings before interest and tax, or operating profit
    • MI is minority interest if any
    • Non-operating assets include cash and cash equivalent, investments etc.
As you can see from the above formulae, the higher the return on capital, the better is the economics of the business or the capability of the management; and the higher the earnings yield, the cheaper is the price of the stock.


My investing experience in Bursa, the Magic Formula
I have been using the principles of The Magic Formula picking stocks for a couple of portfolios of stocks in Bursa. The first portfolio was set up on 21st January 2013 as shown in link below:
http://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/pfs/13147.jsp
The followings are the salient points about the latest performance of the portfolio of 10 stocks as at 22nd September 2015, after a period of 2 years and eight months, and after the recent sharp corrections of the overall market due to various problems at home and abroad.
  1. Portfolio of stocks returned an average of 100.3%, outperform the return of the broad market of about 5.2% during the same period by a very wide margin. RM100000 invested during the period has grown to RM200300, compared to just RM105200 if invested in the broad market.
  2. There are only two stocks which have small single digit negative returns and they are the only under-performers. One of this two, Kimlun may be in positive territory if the free warrants is taken into consideration, indicating the strategy is of low risk.
  3. There are three stocks having three-digit returns; SKP Resources (+332.3%), Prestariang (+304%), and Pintaras Jaya (161%), indicating this strategy could yield multi-baggers.

At the beginning of August 2013, another portfolio was set up, basically also using the principle of the Magic Formula. The portfolio only consists of two old stocks, Kumpulan Fima and Pintaras Jaya, and nine new stocks. The returns of the stocks and the portfolio is as shown in the link here.
http://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/pfs/21089.jsp
The followings are the salient points about the latest performance of the portfolio of 11 stocks after two years and two months as at 22nd September 2015.
  1. The portfolio return an average gain of 82.9% with a median return of 41.3% as shown in Table 2 in the Appendix, outperformed the broad market of -3.2% also by similar wide margin.
  2. There are three stocks with a negative returns of less than 20%, indicating the strategy is of low risk.
  3. There are two multi-baggers in Datasonic with a return of 462.5% and Homeritz at 298%.
I have to admit that the holding periods may be too short to claim victory for my investment strategy in Bursa. I also acknowledge the role of luck could play an important part in the good return. However, it is hard for us to dismiss the probability that the extra-ordinary outperformance could also be due to the viability of the strategy of the Magic Formula.
Why won't it work? Buying a good company with cheap price is intuitive. It may not work if one just invests in one stock, or just one particular industry, but certainly it has a higher probability of working if one invests in a diversified (not overdiversified) portfolio of stocks.

Conclusions
The above compilations show that value investing in low Price-to-earnings, high dividend yields, Graham net net, Coldeye 5 yardsticks have worked well in Bursa. My own experience in the magic Formula Principles of investing also works very well in Bursa. Hence we may conclude that value investing works, not only work in the more matured markets in US and Europe, it also work very well in bursa based on data from Bursa and my own personal experience.

Good investing opportunity appears to be available now or soon for those who wish to build up long-term wealth from the stock market. But first it is wise to learn the language of business and some proven strategies which work in Bursa as shown above. For those who are keen, please contact me at

ckc14training@gmail.com

Due to popular demand, the next online investment course will start at the beginning of October 2015.

KC Chong (23/9/15)

Table 1: Returns of Stocks for Portfolio set up on 21/1/2013



Table 2: Returns of stocks for Portfolio set up on 1st August 2013