Sunday, January 29, 2012

Positive outlook for rubber glove sector, says analyst

KUCHING: The rubber glove sector has a positive outlook for the upcoming quarters as earnings recovery is believed to be at an early-cycle and bound to gain momentum on the back of sustained margin revival.

In a sector update, AmResearch Sdn Bhd (AmResearch) analyst Low Soo Fang opined, “We reckon glove manufacturers are poised to reap higher margins from time-lag induced imperfect price adjustments from lower input costs due to easing latex price and the strengthening greenback against the ringgit exchange rate.

“As it is, quarterly earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) margins of glove manufacturers are still two to four percentage points below normalised levels, implying upside potential.

“We expect higher margins to kick-in over the next few quarters as cheaper latex costs are fully reflected in average selling prices (ASPs),” she stated.

Despite a sharp drop of over 40 per cent in latex price from an all-time high of RM10.60 per kilogramme (kg), Low saw a further easing in latex prices as imminent due to a worse-than-anticipated rubber glut and weakening demand.

This would extend support for a sustained improvement in margins for glove makers as it is the single biggest cost determinant for rubber glove manufacturers, constituting up to 56 to 62 per cent of total production costs.

Low gathered that China’s stockpile of natural rubber (NR) had been on a progressive rise since August 2011, leading to an estimated surplus of 365,600 tonnes as at end-December 2011.

Even though global rubber supply for this year was forecasted to rise by only half of 2011’s additional production of 610,000 tonnes, this would inevitably exert further downward pressure on latex prices going forward.

China’s dominance in the global automobile industry (with a 23 per cent market share) was expected to grow at a slower rate this year, in tandem with the country’s slower economic growth outlook.

The country’s vehicle sales grew a mere three per cent last year, compared with a robust 32 per cent in 2010. As the world’s automobile industry consumes about 70 per cent of global NR output, the sluggish outlook for auto sales this year would affect NR demand negatively.

With regards to glove makers’ production mix, Low commented, “In our view, the structural shift from natural rubber (NR) to nitrile gloves will continue alongside industry trends as consumers typically tend to migrate upwards along with rising disposable income.

“However, the rate of switching should become less drastic now, given softening latex price. Most encouragingly, prices of NR gloves are currently at some seven to 10 per cent discount to nitrile variants.

“NR gloves were sold at an estimated 12 per cent to13 per cent premium to nitrile gloves in 2011. The reversal in ASPs resulting in a favourable price differential should thus help NR gloves claw back some lost market share,” she stated.

The analyst raised AmResearch’s earnings forecasts by 35 to 48 per cent for Top Glove Corporation Bhd (Top Glove) and two to 10 per cent for Kossan Rubber Industries Bhd (Kossan).

She also imputed in higher utilisation rates, latex price forecast of RM5.50 to RM6 per kg as well as AmResearch’s latest in-house foreign exchange rate (US$1 = RM3.10) for both Top Glove and Kossan.

Choosing Top Glove as the top pick for the sector as the group was a prime beneficiary of easing latex prices, she pegged a fair value at RM6.15 per share (from RM3.10 per share) based on a higher fair price earnings (PE) of 19 times revised financial year 2012 (FY13) forecasted earnings.

With over 78 per cent of total production (37 billion pieces per annum) in NR gloves, Top Glove was regarded as the ‘purest’ and largest NR glove manufacturer. Based on past trends, the stock had seen an upward PE re-rating of eight to12 times during previous periods of declining latex prices.

Low also bumped up Kossan’s fair value to RM4.31 per share (from RM3.38 per share previously) based on a higher fair PE of 12.5 times revised FY12 forecasted earnings.


Read more: http://www.theborneopost.com/2012/01/20/positive-outlook-for-rubber-glove-sector-says-analyst/#ixzz1kif1Z7qS

Thursday, January 26, 2012

我的网赚-2011 年全年纪录

2011年我的网赚下跌了很多。如果你有留意我其他blog,我平均每个月以前是USD70+,现在只有USD10++.很多人说是因为Google 的Panda effect.我自己清楚是因为我两个最赚钱的blog没有了ads.目前原因不明白,不过就是Adsense ads没出现。另外visitors也下跌了。

Total online income year 2011
Google Adsense : USD350.86
Nuffnang :RM137.55
Others: RM60.00

2010年纪录
Google Adsense : USD403.81
Nuffnang :RM363.13

基本上你发觉全年变化不大。不过因为后面几个月的income drop很利害。
未来cashout every month目标变更加难了。

我的英文blog写
I set myself goal for 2011 online income:
1.Cash out Google adsense money every month.--------FAIL
2.Generate 3 more websites with 800-1000 Unique visitors per day
  ---
-FAIL
3.Do affiliates marketing to earn more income online.
-FAIL
4.Sell my 1st e-book--
-FAIL,although I write my own 1st e-book, which I'm proud of


2012目标:
1. Google adsense: USD50/month--cashout every 2 months.
2. Generate 1 more website about Malaysia food. This seems to be a good niche although many write about good food in Malaysia, but seldom I see a stagnant in this market, most are getting more and more visitors.
3. Write my own book, not about online make money stuff, but a novel.

Indonesia: Tangerang man positive for H1N1 swine flu: Health Ministry

Via The Jakarta PostTangerang man positive for swine flu: Health Ministry. Excerpt:
The 18-year-old man in Tangerang, who was suspected of being infected with bird flu and who died on Wednesday, tested positive for swine flu, the Health Ministry said. 
The ministry’s head of research and development, Trihono, told The Jakarta Post on Thursday that the man, known as R, had contracted H1N1, which caused a pandemic in 2009. 
Trihono said, however, that it was unlikely that the man had died of swine flu. “While swine flu was deadly in 2009 and 2010, it is no longer a harmful disease.” 
He added that the disease is a lot like a more common seasonal flu. “The sufferer does not even need to be isolated,” he said. 
 The World Health Organization announced in 2010 that the H1N1 swine-flu pandemic had passed, but made clear that “this does not mean that the H1N1 virus has gone away”. 
Trihono suspected that the patient might have suffered from another, deadlier disease, which led to his death. “That disease killed him rather than the swine flu.” 
Officials from Tangerang General Hospital and the regency’s health authority declined to comment on the swine-flu infection, telling the Post that only Health Ministry officials were authorized to make such comments. 
The hospital’s spokesman, Achmad Muchlis, had earlier said that R had died from respiratory problems. The man, a resident from Panongan district in Tangerang, died after being treated for five days.

Mexico Ups Swine Flu Screening as Cases Increase

Three years after swine flu closed Mexico City and caused an international scare, the Mexican government and local media are at odds over the severity of this season's flu virus. Newspapers are warning of an alarming increase in cases while the government insists there is no cause for alarm.
Federal and state health officials agree there is an increase, but they say the number of cases is within the range of a normal flu season.
The Mexican health ministry, however, has listed confusing numbers on its website and it hasn't specified the rise in cases despite repeated requests from The Associated Press.
The federal education ministry said Wednesday that it was instituting screening measures in all elementary schools for the H1N1 flu strain, commonly called swine flu when the first outbreak was discovered in Mexico in March 2009. The ministry revised its message later to say screenings are in place only at schools where children exhibit symptoms.
Local media reported a handful of schools in Mexico City have closed. The education ministry said they were private schools shuttered by administrators and parents, not by official government action.
Meanwhile, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said Thursday that while Mexico is seeing more cases of the H1N1 virus, the U.S. is seeing more cases of a different strain, H3N2. Antibodies for both are part of this year's flu vaccine. H1N1 is now considered a seasonal flu.
"We are not aware of any unusual changes in the virus in Mexico that would be concerning," CDC spokesman Tom Skinner said in an email to The Associated Press.
Besides the contradicting statements about screenings at schools, the Mexican government has also put out conflicting statistics.
The health ministry on Sunday reported 637 cases of confirmed flu cases so far in 2012 along with 10 deaths — nine of them associated with 573 cases of H1N1.
On Jan. 15, it reported far lower numbers: 181 confirmed cases for all strains of flu and five deaths for 2012, meaning cases would have increased 250 percent in just one week.
The same health bulletin said that for all of last year, there were 870 cases of all strains of flu and 35 deaths.
The World Health Organization in 2009 declared swine flu the first global flu pandemic in 40 years after the outbreak of cases in Mexico that spring and then the strain spread to other countries.
Mexican authorities closed restaurants, schools, museums, libraries and theaters to stop the spread of the disease as initial reports suggested it was killing as many as one in 15 of those infected — a horrifying death rate that would have been more than three times higher than the devastating flu pandemic of 1918-19.
Additional investigation in Mexico suggested that many people had suffered only mild illness. Those cases were not counted in initial reports, meaning the death rate was much, much lower than originally estimated.
By July 2010, the Mexican government reported nearly 76,000 cases of H1N1 and more than 1,300 deaths, the most recent accumulated statistics on its website.
The World Health Organizations estimates that flu causes 3 million to 5 million cases of severe illness worldwide every year, with about 250,000 to 500,000 deaths, primarily among the elderly and the chronically ill.

香港H5N1病毒

新华网香港1月26日电 香港特区政府渔农自然护理署发言人26日表示,日前在新界深井捡走的一只鹅尸体经多项测试后,证实对H5N1病毒测试呈阳性反应。

据介绍,该只鹅尸体于1月20日在深井青山公路13咪钓鱼湾泳滩被捡走。该处的3公里范围内没有鸡场,也没有迹象显示有人散养家禽。渔护署将继续密切监察有关情况,并加强在附近一带的巡查。

渔护署表示,将继续巡查本地活家禽农场,确保业界采取适当措施预防禽流感。渔护署呼吁市民注意个人卫生,避免接触野生雀鸟或活家禽,接触禽鸟后须立即洗手

为孩子选购储蓄户口和定期存款

孩子出世了2个月了,最近开始要替孩子储蓄了。
和老婆讨论了,一小份放入saving account,大多放入定期吧。
自己在网上看了很多comparison,好象都是Maybank 的Yippie Savings Account最好,有保险cover还有那些奖励。例如PMR,SPM等考到很好的成绩,银行都会另外加钱入户口。
 http://www.maybank2u.com.my/mbb_info/m2u/public/personalDetail04.do?chCatId=/mbb/Personal/INV-Investment&programId=ACC01-SavingsAccounts&cntTypeId=0&cntKey=ACC01.07

Yippie Savings Account


A savings account for children aged below 18 years, offering high interest rates up to 2.75% p.a.

Effective rate:
1.20 - 2.76% p.a.

Minimum deposit:
RM1

* Eligible for protection by PIDM

Benefits


  • Free coin box when you open a Yippie account with a RM250 deposit
  • Cash rewards for Yippie Club members who excel in their PMR, SPM, STPM and Tertiary level exams
  • Free Personal Accident Insurance coverage of up to RM70,000 for you and your child
  • A chance to win fantastic prizes in various contests (if any)

Note

To enjoy these benefits, you need to maintain RM1000 in your account at all times. The higher interest rate paid is subject to only one withdrawal per month. Interest is credited twice (2) a year on 30th June and 31st December respectively. To enjoy this benefit, you will have to maintain the account for at least 6 months a year, from 1st January to 30th June and from 1st July to 31st December. If the account is not maintained for the 6-month duration as mentioned, the normal Kawanku Savings interest will apply.

Who can apply


  • Children below 18 years old, parents and guardians who are below 60 years of age

Interest rates


Credit balance
Nominal rate
(% p.a.)
Effective rate
(% p.a.)
Up to RM50,000
3.00
3.01
Above RM50,000
1.45
1.45
* With effect from 11 May 2011. Subject to change without prior notice.

Required documents


For Personal/Joint accounts

  • Child: Original birth certificate or MyKid
  • Parents / Guardian: Original Identity Card (IC) for Malaysians and
  • Passports for foreigners
Please also bring along any of the following secondary supporting documents:-
  • Valid Passport (if IC is produced as a Primary document)
  • Valid driving licence
  • Utility bills (e.g. water/electricity/telephone bills, Quit Rent, Assessment Notice) in the name and address of the customer opening the account
  • Letter of employment
  • Credit card
Please choose a branch located near your home or place of work.

Fees & charges


  • Replacement of ATM/bankcard: RM12
  • Replacement of lost savings passbook: RM15 incl. stamp duty
  • Replacement of savings passbook due to poor handling: RM10
  • Early closure of account within 3 months of account opening: RM20
  • Cash withdrawals at ATM facilities owned by other banks (MEPS charges): RM1

Academic Cash Award

The Cash Award for Academic Excellence is given for excellent grades in PMR, SPM, STPM/A-Levels and Degree level. The cash awards are as follows:
Examination
Cash award
PMR (7As)
RM100 per accountholder
SPM (8As / A+)
RM200 per accountholder
STPM/A-Levels
(5As / 4As and MUET Grade 6)
RM300 per accountholder
University Degree
(1st Class Honours)
RM500 per accountholder

How to qualify

To qualify, you need to meet the following criteria:

Existing account holders

Maintain RM1,000 in the account during the examination year for PMR, SPM, STPM / A-Levels until the date of submission for Cash Award

New account holders

Open and maintain RM1,000 in the account during the examination year for PMR, SPM, STPM/A-Levels until the date of submission for Cash Award

1st Class Honours Degree

At the age of 18, the accountholder must maintain RM1,000 in the account
Account must be opened before reaching age 18
Account must be maintained until the date of submission of Cash Award

Claims

The submission for Cash Award claims is to be done at the accountholder's home branch within one (1) month from the official results announcement. The Cash Award can only be claimed once irrespective of the number of savings accounts held by the imteen accountholder.

 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
OCBC
http://www.ocbc.com.my/personal-banking/banking/MY_Banking_Deposit_Saving_YoungSaver.shtm?bcid=M1_C1_S1_P4


Effective from 12 May 2011, the interest rate for Young Savers account will be revised to the following :
 Tier
Existing Interest Rate
 (% p.a.)
 Revised Interest Rate
(% p.a.)
 Up to RM50,000
2.60
2.85
 Above RM50,000
0.30
0.30
The product features remain unchanged.


 Benefits
High Interest Rate
The Young Savers Account pays special high interest rates. Interest is calculated daily and credited every six monthly, June and December.
Bonus Interest
Your child will also enjoy an additional 5% on accumulated interest if no withdrawal is made for 12 calendar months starting from 31 December every year.
Passbook Account
Passbook accounts allow young savers to see how quickly their savings are growing by simply looking at the balance every time their passbooks are updated.
24-hour Convenience
You enjoy our 24-Hour Services via our ATM and OCBC PhoneBanking services. You can also allow your child to enjoy these services too (subject to age eligibility).
Cash Incentives* for Your Child
As an incentive for your child to excel in his studies, we will reward your child when he achieves outstanding results in the following examinations.
   * To be eligible for the awards, the account must have been opened for at least 12 months prior to the announcement of examination results, and
* The results must be submitted to OCBC within 2 weeks of the announcement of examination results.
* The cash awards for academic excellence shall be paid by the Bank at such frequency and rate determined and may be reviewed by the Bank from time to time.


 Eligibility
 Individuals aged below 21 years old.

 Trust accounts can be opened for individuals below 18 years old, in the parent/guardian's name.

 Minimum initial deposit of RM500.

  Fees and Charges
 No monthly service fee!
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Hong Leong Junior Savings Account

Instilling savings habit at a young age is a wise move. We recognize that supporting education and promoting savings improve the way people live in the communities we serve in.
Who it's for?
  • Children below 18 years old who wants to inculcate a good savings habit.
  • Parents who wish to regularly put aside savings for special purchases and expenses for their child.
Click here to know more about Deposits promotion.
Savings
  • High savings interest at 2.90% p.a. up to RM50,000
  • Interest calculated daily and credited monthly
  • Savings passbook provided to help your child keep track of their finances
  • Open an account now with RM 1
Optional Junior Savers Protection Plan
  • Low monthly premium - RM1.10 a day for complete protection for both adult and child.
  • Covers both death and total permanent disability.
  • Up to RM90,000 coverage per life; no medical examination required.
  • Accumulated income fund available upon termination of policy.
  • Coverage will commence immediately for death / TPD caused by accidents.
  • Hassle free payment convenience through debiting your Hong Leong Junior Savings Account.
Benefits Junior Saver's Protection Plan
1st Life Assured 2nd Life Assured
Death (All Causes) RM 45,000 RM 45,000
TPD (All Causes) RM 45,000 RM 45,000
Premium RM 33 per month
Juvenile Death or TPD Benefits
In the event of the death or TPD of the Life Assured occurring before age of five (5) years, the Sum Assured payable under the Basic Life Policy shall be reduced as follows:
Age attained at Death or TPD % Sum Assured Payable
0 to 1 20%
2 40%
3 60%
4 80%
5 and above 100%
*Eligible for Protection by PIDM 

 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 至于Fixed Deposit,最近留意报纸,OCBC好像在这个时间有特别promotion,到31March如果定期9个月以上利息3.80%.自己还很挣扎。如果替孩子买股票,可能得到的股息还要高吧。。。。不过老婆就可能反对。

雲頂1.2億售印尼2油氣公司

雲頂(GENTING,3182,主板貿服股)今日以3900萬美元(1億2110萬令吉),將擁有兩項印尼油田生產分享合約的兩家子公司脫售予澳洲的AWE私人公司(簡稱AWE)。


雲頂宣佈,其95%子公司Swallow Creek有限公司,已經和澳洲掛牌的石油開採公司AWE私人公司簽署股票買賣協議,將擁有印尼Northwest Natuna油田及Anambas油田生產分享合約的子公司,Genting Oil Natuna私人有限公司,及Sanyen油氣私人有限公司100%股權,脫售給AWE。

Genting Oil Natuna私人有限公司,及Sanyen油氣私人有限公司均在新加坡成立,負責印尼Natuna海的油氣開採業務,分別持有Northwest Natuna油田及Anambas油田生產分享合約。

AWE將支付3900萬美元現金予Swallow Creek有限公司。Swallow Creek則將兩家子公司拖欠它的1億美元貸款及應收帳轉移給AWE。

這項收購行動預計將在2月份完成。雲頂表示,有關收購行動不會影響該集團2012財政年的淨利及淨資產水平。

在此之前,市場已經傳出這項脫售的消息,不過,雲頂股價今日並未受到激勵,而是隨著大市下滑,閉市時,雲頂下滑8仙,至10.90令吉,成交量為224萬1400股。

雲頂集團在2010年11月份以1億3650美元,將印尼Muturi油氣相關的特許經營權脫售給英國石油全球投資(BP Global Investments),並在2007年以7億4500萬令吉,將旗下紙和包裝業務脫售予CVC。這一次脫售油氣業務,是該集團第三項非博彩業務脫售活 動。分析員認為是項脫售將可讓雲頂更專注於博彩業務。

僑豐投行分析員認為,這項脫售行動在預料之中,該集團一直在探討脫售其大馬、中國,印尼以及印度的發電與油氣業務。

分析員認為,油氣業務將動用龐大資本開銷,而該集團則難以為非核心業務(油氣業務)投入龐大的資金。

基於雲頂擴大其博彩業務在全球的版圖,分析員相信,該公司的估值將逐步追上全球業者的水平。該公司目前的本益比僅13.6倍,其他國際博彩業者的本益比平均為20倍。因此,分析員維持「買入」的建議。

Wednesday, January 25, 2012

我的股票Portfolio 2012.01.26

今天是华人农历新年初四,是股票市场好日子。我hold的股票大多gain.
去年投机太过火,结果亏本多。今年还是乖乖拿股息好了,虽然风水说我有偏财。是事实,因为前几天的E&O投机如果我hold到今天已经赚入RM400++了。可惜我没有hold,因为怕。结果选择hold的Supermax却没有很好。

目前股票portfolio如下。
如果你问我投机可以玩什么,我自己短期炒了Gtronic还有E&O.
Gtronic是因为短期看好它的业务,还有不错股息。不过我个人不喜欢科技股票。所以当初RM0.9买,现在RM1.00卖出。还是有的玩个人觉得。
E&O买入是因为当初看到它的volume很高。背后一定有原因的。是看时间爆发而已。说不定SIME真的决定购买公司,而且价格可能不过,所以才会爆发。如果SIME全购,我觉得不会少过RM2.00.

2012人人说是世界末日,而且灾难还有病疫多。所以我个人选择了HOLD手套股票到年尾。目前已经买入Supermax,Latexx去年hold到今天。其实手套股会反弹已经是所料之事情,因为橡胶价格跌,如果美金强势,未来业绩肯定走出低潮。这个时候加码我自己觉得适当。因为是在情况刚开始明朗。年尾可能卖出了。

另外,我之前已经看好的Huayang终于开始reflect了。做功课的人的reward是不错的。这个股票未来2年我觉得可以hold.虽然自己不看好propertystock,不过这个以中低阶层为主的developer自己很喜欢。hold少少看未来成绩。其他property stock以后会尽快sell.




  Buy At Quantity Cost MktPrice MktValue Gain/Loss Gain/Loss %
PowerRoot 0.5964 500 298.18 0.510 255.00 (43.18) -14.48%
Latexx 2.40 200 493.15 1.920 384.00 (109.15) -22.13%
HuaYang 1.580 100 171.05 1.410 141.00 (30.05) -17.57%
HuaYang 1.400 200 294.00 1.410 282.00 (12.00) -4.08%
HuaYang(Bonus 1:3) 0.000 100 0.00 1.410 141.00 141.00 #DIV/0!
UOADev 1.500 100 163.05 1.580 158.00 (5.05) -3.10%
UOADev 1.453 100 159.25 1.580 158.00 (1.25) -0.78%
Supermax 2.341 1000 2340.70 2.180 2180.00 (160.70) -6.87%
E&O 1.700 2000 3425.00 1.720 3440.00 15.00 0.44%
Cash     2482.76   2482.76    

Tuesday, January 17, 2012

Jakarta on alert after man dies of H5N1

JAKARTA: Indonesia has stepped up preventive and control measures against bird flu following the death of a 23-year-old man of suspected H5N1 virus infection in northern Jakarta on Saturday.

Deputy Health Minister Ali Gufron Mukti said today the government was handling the measures more professionally to prevent any spread of the disease.

The measures also included having designated hospitals to handle such cases in the future, he said. 

Mukti could only say that he would provide verification later when asked to confirm whether an outbreak of the disease had occurred in northern Jakarta.

It is learnt that the man who died had bred pigeons in the vicinity of his home. 

Agriculture Minister Suswono said Indonesia was not completely free of bird flu.

"Most importantly, we hope that the people will not hesitate to immediately report any death of chickens, and should any of the people fall ill," he said. 

Suswono has ordered relevant agencies under the ministry to monitor cases suspected to be bird flu. 

Meanwhile, the local media reported that the health division of the Jakarta local authorities conducted an operation today to examine sick birds in eastern Jakarta besides enforcing the restriction on breeding of birds within 25 metres of residential areas. 

In the operation, several birds bred in the restricted areas were culled

Friday, January 13, 2012

粉乳胶手套产能过剩 手套业者收益回弹料受限

分析员预见,2012年将是乳胶手套业者的“复苏年”,惟粉乳胶手套产能过剩,恐限制收益回弹幅度。

丁腈手套方面,由于业者开始拓展生产线,可能引领丁腈业务承受赚幅收窄的窘境。

马银行投资银行的报告指出,考量乳胶与丁腈手套业务走向后,决定维持领域“中和”投资评级。

分析员说,手套业者2010年适逢A(H1N1)型流感,导致粉乳胶手套产能过剩,进而影响了2011年的收益表现。

据了解,产能过剩问题需要1至3年时间才会被市场完全消化,所以,仍稍微影响粉乳胶手套业务今年赚幅。

目前粉乳胶手套生产线使用率约70%,而无粉乳胶手套及丁腈手套则接近极限。

“业者对增加丁腈手套生产线也持谨慎态度,毕竟这业务可能面临赚幅压缩情况。”

转向丁腈手套

分析员表示,目前丁腈手套价格高于无粉乳胶手套,市场的结构性需求已从乳胶手套转至被视为优质产品的丁腈手套。

目前乳胶与丁腈手套的市场比例为70:30,在丁腈手套逐渐夺走乳胶手套市场的情势下,预见两者在未来五年的需求与销售比例将到50:50的水平。

首选股贺特佳

鉴于较强稳的基本面,分析员看好贺特佳(Harta,5168,主板工业产品股),收益能力将高于顶级手套(TopGlov,7113,主板工业产品股)66%。

另外,分析员也建议买入高产尼品工业(Kossan,7153,主板工业产品股),尤其是开始提高在赚幅更高的丁腈手术手套专注力,前景备受看好。

对于顶级手套,分析员认为市场2012至2013财年16至38%的收益评估太高,估值有下调空间。

“顶级手套目前在22倍本益比上交易,高出16倍的历史水平,而且也高出领域12倍的水平非常多,因此给予‘卖出’投资评级。”

Wednesday, January 11, 2012

橡膠價格看跌

包括印尼和象牙海岸在內的全球橡膠園今年可望大豐收,預料橡膠會出現至少2004年以來最嚴重的供應過剩現象,今年橡膠價格看跌,將減輕普利司通(Bridgestone)和米其林(Michelin)等輪胎製造商的成本壓力。

輪胎製造商成本壓力減輕

以諫山雄一郎為首的高盛集團分析師預估,今年橡膠供過於求將達40萬公噸(供給增加7%至1180萬公噸,需求僅增3%至1140萬噸),與去年供不應求8.7萬噸形成強烈對比。

去年供給短缺推升橡膠價格,在2月18日東京商品交易所漲至創紀錄的每公斤535.7日圓(6.96美元),後來因為供給看升,且中國的需求成長放緩,價格逐步下滑至272.7日圓,跌幅達49%。

彭博資訊訪調14位分析師和交易員預估,今年橡膠期貨將再挫12%,跌至每公斤240日圓,為2009年11月來最低。

商品行情去年出現年度跌幅,為3年來僅見,這是因為全球最大商品消耗國的中國,放慢經濟成長的步伐,以便抑制通膨。中國汽車銷售去年前11月個僅成長2.6%,遠低於2010年的32%,對已經因全球成長減速而開始走疲的原物料價格再添壓力。

駐新加坡的RCMA商品亞洲集團首席執行員帕迪說:“橡膠價格的前景與全球和中國經濟成長息息相關。我看空全球經濟走勢,所以也看空橡膠價格。”

橡膠10個月來的跌勢有助用量佔全球60%的輪胎製造商降低成本。(星洲日報/財經)

Tuesday, January 10, 2012

佛州议院允建赌场 云顶大马跨越首道法律屏障






(塔拉哈西11日讯)美国佛罗里达州通过一项法案,允许在该州建设3家赌场,意味着积极进军迈阿密市场的云顶马来西亚(GenM,4715,主板贸服股),已成功跨越第一道法律屏障。

佛罗里达参议院及众议院以7-3的票数,通过新的法案,在法案下将成立名为佛罗里达州博彩委员会的机制,负责发出执照、监管及对当地博彩业执行法律责任。

在新的法案下,有关当局将发出3张博彩执照,在佛罗里达开设三家类似拉斯维加斯赌场模式及酒店度假村综合概念的娱乐城,投资回酬至少为20亿美元(约62.8亿令吉)。

成功提出申请的业者,必须一次过缴付5000万美元(约1.57亿令吉)的费用,每年的更新费定在200万美元(约628万令吉)。

另外,每年所录得的营业额也须缴交10%的博彩税。

大华继显研究主管邱武益说:“迈阿密博彩合法化,将提高云顶的收益,目前,这家公司积极在迈阿密拓展脚步,计划在当地的比斯坎湾(Biscayne Bay)打造赌场及酒店综合度假村。”

华特迪士尼反对

不过,佛罗里达州博彩合法化的计划,却遭到华特迪士尼的反对。

这家全球最大的主题公园公司认为,开设赌场会影响本身的生意,所以反对相关法案。

为纽约赌场建人脉 云顶政治手腕高超

云顶(Genting,3182,主板贸服股)以高超的政治手腕,获得纽约州州长背书,成功为打造纽约首家全方位赌场建立人脉。

冀成美最大赌场

《华尔街日报》指出,纽约州州长安德鲁切尔莫在宣布,将在纽约打造美国最大的会议中心;同时,来自大马的云顶,也计划重砸数十亿美元(约31.4亿令吉)进一步扩充纽约阿达跑马场(Aqueduct Racetrack)的赌场计划。

据知,在几个月前,公司的负责人已经开始和安德鲁切尔莫领导的州政府开始洽谈,很可能在纽约打造近年来最庞大的发展计划。

华尔街日报透露:“云顶成功取得州政府的支持,透过良好的社交手腕,拓展本身的老虎机设施,在美国设立首个,也可能是唯一一家全方位赌场。”

竞标价震惊对手

纽约州长在致词时曾透露,希望推动云顶的计划,让它成为全国最大的赌场。

《华尔街日报》也指出,云顶2010年成功在阿达跑马场,获准使用老虎机,这个突破对云顶在纽约的发展计划,起着重要的作用。

聘说客游说部长

据知,云顶当年在竞标时,投入了3亿8000万美元(约11.93亿令吉)的资金,比其他竞标者高出5500万美元(约1.727亿令吉),让其他竞标者震惊。

该报透露,云顶也花费大笔资金,聘请“说客”游说部长,以便让全方位赌场在纽约合法化。

股价不起反跌

但是,这项正面消息并没有激励云顶马来西亚今日的股价,受大盘呈下行趋势所影响,云顶马来西亚全天走低。

在去年11月底,云顶马来西亚表示,很快将对外公布该集团在美国迈阿密名胜世界发展蓝图中的收购计划,并同时收购一块永久地契产业——Omni中心,该收购计划也是迈阿密名胜世界发展蓝图的部分计划。

云顶在过去一年来,非常地积极争取在迈阿密建立赌场,除了公布美国迈阿密名胜世界发展蓝图,也购买了土地。

云顶期望可在新法律条例下,获得当地的赌场执照,开始价值38亿美元(约121.2亿令吉)的赌场娱乐城,包含六座大夏、购物中心和超过50家餐厅等。

云顶于去年9月公布迈阿密名胜世界发展蓝图概况,该蓝图为综合发展计划,囊括主题式酒店(5000间酒店房间)、一栋零售平台(拥有会展中心)、娱乐商场、餐厅、商业设施和住宅大楼。

Top Glove eyes RM5b revenue in 5 years

Top Glove Corporation Bhd aims to increase its revenue to RM5 billion in the next five years in sync with its plan to boost efficiency, its chairman Tan Sri Lim Wee Chai said today.

The world's largest rubber gloves manufacturer posted RM2.05 billion revenue for the financial year ended Aug 31, 2011.

“There’s always a chance to double revenue or profit. We want to have RM4 billion or even RM5 billion in the next five years,” he said.

Lim said the target was achievable in tandem with the company’s plan to invest heavily in technology and automation.

“It’s important for the company to invest in technology and automation in order to take it to the next level. We will invest more in human capital, technology, automation and research and development.

"This will include recruiting, retraining and retaining of staff,” he told a briefing for fund managers and the media.

Top Glove has allocated RM100 million for its capital expenditure (CAPEX) for this year. Last year, between RM100 million and RM120 million was spent for CAPEX.

Lim said the company expects to achieve 30 per cent earnings growth by December this year with the weaker latex price and stronger US dollar.

“This will be achieved if we are able to sell 45 billion pieces of gloves. Today, we are selling 40 billion pieces of gloves. We are getting closer to the five billion pieces.

“We are in a much better position this year. Last year was competitive with the headwinds and high latex price,” he said.

Managing Director Lee Kim Meow said Top Glove planned to buy 10,000 hectares of plantation land in Cambodia.

He said the company was looking at several pieces of plantation land in the north-east and south-east of Cambodia, bordering Vietnam.

Lee said Top Glove would go into this venture on its own as it had some experience in the rubber business.

“This plan is expected to materialise this year. The timing is right due to the weaker latex price. It’s good to be in a country where there's labour,” he said.

The company has estimated RM160 million for development cost, which includes land purchase, for seven years.

With the purchase, Top Glove will be involved in downstream, mid-stream and upstream business.

Lee said the company would continue acquiring plantation land in Cambodia, Indonesia, Sabah and Sarawak.

Lee said the company would look for land at good prices in these four places. “We are in the midst of applying through the governments and agencies. We hope to firm up on these in the next three to six months,” he added.

Friday, January 6, 2012

我的股票投资2011回顾。2012好的开始

回顾2011,真的如我喜欢的财经作者曹仁超说是一个牛皮市和上落市,全年就是在不断上下,封关也和年头差别不远。唯一可以赚钱的方法是跌时大量买入,反弹时候卖出。
2011年全年都不务正业,一直玩投机,结果自食其果,亏了RM1800++,痛定思痛,2012只累计高股息股票了。另外自己看好的有手套股还有马来西亚的Gaming stocks.
去年年尾开始看淡房地产股票,唯一例外的是Huayang.这个股特别在于它focus在RM400k以下的居家,而且OneSouth的综合类型condo很成功。这也是为何我也看好Fitters,因为我觉得未来的房地产趋势都是这些类型的。Fitters在WangsaMaju一带起了Festival Mall,我个人很喜欢那个location.当然长期还是必须继续发展类似屋子才能确保继续成长。

目前继续keep Leaders,因为很快会privatise RM1.10,根本就是免费赚到差价。
如果给我选择keep一个股票,我会继续keep Huayang,唯一担心的是目前的债务而已。不过地产股都是类似的。

回顾2011,最让人惊心动魄的是投机Catcha Media, 还有DPS.每个上下都是亏赚过千,自己还有点太贪心了。

黄金调整或为再造辉煌

[世华财讯]从每盎司1920美元一路下行跌至近期低点1522美元,国际金价跌势惊人。但黄金(1619.50,-0.60,-0.04%)熊市尚未到来,对空头而言,牛市的暂时退却正蕴含着一场更大的杀机。

7月黄金上涨的主要推手是欧洲债务危机,希腊能否得到欧元区的救助成就黄金历史上为数不多的11连阳行情。黄金的避险属性成为各大机构唯一论点,随着欧 洲主权债务危机愈演愈烈,金价一路下挫,避险属性何在?答案只有一个,黄金价格正在走向一个价值还原的过程,商品属性将在2012年的市场再次显现。彭博社有数据显示,黄金的生产成本在1000至1100美元之间,换句话说,跌破1000美元可能性微乎其微,但短期接近成本价并非绝无可能。

美元流动性问题将有可能是造成黄金再次下跌的主要因素,回顾1920美元附近的大跌,市场上出现了一则比较重要的消息就是欧洲银行以黄金作为抵押品,换 取美元流动性,受此影响黄金价格开始大幅下挫。另外,在12月12日的下跌行情中,欧洲银行又故伎重施,以同样的办法换取美元流动性,金价下挫再次得到验 证。预计2012年黄金价格受此因素影响将成为大概率事件,也是商品属性回归的必要条件。但从两次下跌幅度看,有逐渐减弱的迹象,证明靠此单一因素将不足 以完成黄金的商品还原过程。

除了欧洲银行业可能抵押黄金换取流动性,帮助黄金价值还原外,欧洲政府同样有可能做出同样的举动,以黄金 作为抵押降低自身融资成本。目前西班牙、意大利的长期国债收益率超过7%的世界警戒线,德国、法国的长期国债收益率也在不断的提高。为了缓和不堪重负的融 资成本,笔者认为最有可能出现的一幕是欧元区各国同时将抵押黄金,借此降低融资的代价。如果出现这样的情况,黄金短期跌入成本价附近的可能性增强。但长期 而言,由于欧洲债务过于庞大,还掉巨额欠款恐非易事。很多世界知名基金曾不止一次质疑过欧元区政府的还债能力,到时有可能出现不能赎回黄金的情况,欧式量 化宽松政策将无可避免。黄金真正的牛市也会就此展开,3000美元并非遥不可及。

除欧债危机外,美国金融危机也是助涨金价的另一重要 因素。虽说之前的两次量化宽松政策并没有帮助美国摆脱经济危机,但美国可用于解决危机的手段越来越少,量化宽松政策已成最后手段。彭博社的一份数据值得关 注,该数据显示外国央行正在大量抛售美国国债。回顾之前的两次量化宽松政策,一个共同之处是市场上新增的美元变成了购买债券的工具。如果2012年美国债 券的抛售情况不能得到有效抑制,QE3将变成现实。黄金也将因此会再次成为万众瞩目的焦点,再创历史辉煌将绝非空穴来风。

近日金银再次出现较大的跌幅,虽然不比9月21日的行情,但市场已如惊弓之鸟,很明显空方的试探已经有了结果,空强多弱已成事实。但在众多因素利好的情况下,黄金牛市远没有终结,一年之内金价将有望重回1100美元区间,三年之内则将迎来三千时代。

(世元启金 支雅楠)

(王德军 编辑)






金價泡沫不會破
2012年01月05日

導讀:MarketWatch專欄作家萊恩(Matthew Lynn)撰文指出,本質上說來,想要金價真正進入熊市,只能指望利率上漲,而且至少需要漲到10%的水平,而現在各國央行其實都在加印鈔票,這就決定了黃金的牛市還遠沒有到結束的時候。

以下即萊恩的評論文章全文:

從來沒有人說過黃金是適合膽小鬼的資產門類。事實上,對於那些不喜歡爭論,不喜歡事事都辯出個是非的人而言,黃金都不見得適合。

在一些人看來,只有黃金才是真正意義上的貨幣,真正無可爭議的王者,現在只是等待著那些篡奪王位的贗品被徹底清掃出局,就將重新加冕。至於在其他人眼 中,黃金卻只不過是著名經濟學家凱恩斯(John Maynard Keynes)所謂「野蠻時代的遺產」,與二十一世紀的關聯只是可以用於管道或者電信基礎設施。

不過,哪怕把這些最常規的爭論拋開不 說,在2011年結束和2012年開始的時候,黃金可爭論的話題還是有太多。它先是一路狂奔,在秋季漲到每盎司1916美元,繼而又轉向下跌,最終以 1550美元結束了這一年。那麼,這是否就意味著開始於很久之前的2000年的黃金大牛市,到此就要告一段落了呢?

還不能真麼說。毋庸贅言,黃金遲早有一天會衝進泡沫區,但是在央行銀行家們開始像1980年代早期那樣對通貨膨脹大動干戈之前,它是不會真正意義上進入熊市的。那個時間節點至少距離現在還有相當的距離。

不必說,現在再看漲黃金已經不容易了。

無論任何一種資產,只要它的價格迅速上漲,而且一漲就是十年,誰也不可能不帶著懷疑的眼光去看待。在1999年7月,黃金跌到了每盎司252.80美元 的近二十年最低點。國際貨幣基金組織(微博)是個大賣家,還有澳大利亞和英國央行。當時看上去,黃金作為終極價值保護者的頭銜已經可以壽終正寢了。然而歷 史卻告訴我們,當時已經是谷底了。自那時以來,金價就在持續上漲又上漲。哪怕在聖誕節前的調整行情之後,金價在過去十年左右時間當中的漲幅也有五倍左右, 而股票和其他很多資產門類的價格這段時間裡本質上就是原地踏步。

這一牛市已經被幾乎所有人注意到了。哪怕是那些平時不研究股市,對於 債市和匯市行情也是兩眼一抹黑的人現在也在討論黃金了,就像他們會討論房地產那樣。大家一次又一次說到,那些看似根本不需要的珠寶首飾總是能夠賣個大價 錢。為普通人提供黃金投資機會的基金產品不斷創建,黃金公司不斷建造新的倉庫來儲存這些金屬,現在,甚至谷歌上關於黃金的搜索也越來越多了。

如果這還不能理解為賣出的信號,那真不知道怎樣才是賣出的信號了。在前述一切之外,一些市場上最精明的投資者其實已經悄悄離開了。比如說,對沖基金巨擘 索羅斯(George Soros)就說過,他已經賣出了自己所持有的全部黃金。無論你是否喜歡索羅斯,他的話有怎樣的份量你都該清楚:他大多數時候的判斷都比我們普通人正確, 這一點已經被他歷年的表現數據所證明了。

可是即便如此,就此看空黃金也是很難。通貨膨脹仍然是個不小的威脅。各國央行現在還在嘩嘩地 印鈔。美元作為全球儲備貨幣的地位還在不斷受到削弱。或許最重要的是,歐元依然是處在危機之中。現在歐洲的解決方案似乎只有兩個,一個是歐洲央行開動印鈔 機,另外一個是歐元區乾脆解體,而無論哪個對於金價而言都是利好消息。因此,當我們聽到那些樂觀的交易者宣稱金價在今年年內將突破每盎司2000美元的關 口,我們也實在沒有什麼好大驚小怪的。

到底應該相信誰呢?想要在這樣的爭論當中理出頭緒,有一個有用的方法,直接撲向本質,我們可以提問:到底什麼才真正有力量讓金價下跌?

在這方面,我們有個很有份量的例子。在1980年到1982年期間,金價從840美元一路崩落到了不足320美元。

這是如何發生的?答案是,因為利率在持續上漲。美國的利率從1979年的11%一直漲到了1980年的20%。英國的利率在1980年漲到了 16%。即便在當你是以低通貨膨脹及貨幣穩定著稱的西德,利率也漲到了11.5%。金價大致是在同時見頂,之後便不可避免地持續下滑了。

這當中的關竅其實很容易理解。加息會對黃金產生兩方面的影響。

首先,加息會打壓通貨膨脹,而黃金首先就是被視作一種針對通貨膨脹的對沖工具,而它的這種價值也就因此被削弱了。一旦各國央行表明意願,為了讓價格水平 再度回到控制範圍之內,他們加息多少都在所不惜,人們也就自然沒有理由要尋求針對通貨膨脹的保障了。在這種情況下,顯然人們還是選擇股票之類的其他資產更 為合適,因為伴隨經濟逐漸趨向穩定,這些資產都將得到好處。投資者儘管不會立即理解,但是都會非常迅速地捕捉到這樣的線索。

其次,加 息會提高擁有黃金的成本。貴金屬可是不支付利息的,相反,你倒必須支出存儲的費用。在利息為零的時候,差別倒還不大,因為投資於現金部位也機會沒有任何回 報。可是,當利率開始上漲,持有黃金的成本就凸現出來,因為你損失了可能因此得到的利息。在1980年代,現金投資可以有20%的回報,這時候黃金就橫豎 看著都不順眼了。

問題的關鍵就是這麼簡單。想要金價真正意義上大幅度下跌,就必須利率大幅度上漲。考慮到利率的起點比當年要低得多,它現在顯然不會漲到1980年代那麼高的水平。不過,要創造一個實質性的黃金熊市,利率至少要漲到10%。

現在有這方面的跡像嗎?答案是還沒有。相反,我們看到的是,各國央行今年恐怕還會讓自己的貨幣進一步貶值。

這種貴金屬早晚會進入泡沫地帶,這是任何資產都逃不脫的宿命,可是從現在到那一天,還有很長的路要走。(子衿)

米兰兵法:投资先了解自己

我经常问: “我有10万令吉资金。我应该使用这资金来购买价值10万令吉的产业而不必贷款?还是以这10万令吉作为20%首期款,再贷款40万令吉来购买数项总值50万令吉的产业?”

这问题看似简单,但并不易解答。欲得到答案,你首先必须了解自己的投资概况。

所谓的独特投资概况因人而异,下面我们一一来探讨。

(1)年龄

年纪越轻,代表你能承担更多风险。在生活上,我们总有冒险的时候,尤其在投资和吸取利润方面。

年轻时,你必须勇于冒险,否则就可能被逼在年长时面对更多风险。

(a)贷款投资产业也需承担一些风险。因此,越年轻,你应该借贷越多贷款。所以,你允许使用10万令吉作为首期款,以及贷款至少40万令吉来购买数项总值超过50万令吉的产业。此外,相对与较年长的人士,你能够选择比较长的贷款期限,从而减轻每个月的贷款负担。

(b)如果你已经退休或即将退休,以10万现金购买一项产业,是最安全投资方式。

(c)如果年龄处在中间阶段,借贷你有能力负担的贷款,是最佳选择。

无论你处在哪个年龄层,都必须确保你的潜能回酬超越借贷成本。贷款购买能增值的资产,如产业,一直都是合理的融资方式, 而不是贷款作没有价值的开支(如度假),甚至购买会贬值的产品(如汽车、电视机等)。

(2)风险承担能力

每个人应对和管理风险的方式都不同;一些人是超保守型、一些则可能非常积极,另一些甚至属于顽固的赌徒。最了解自己的人,是你自己。因此,不够了解你的人士,很难给予最适合你的投资或策略建议。

市场上有很多不同的风险承担能力相关问答题,而我认为,它们大部分都过于简单。我至今还未发现一些类似个人档案的风险或投资概况分析。个人档案能让你详细和客观地分析你的个性或强项和弱点、哪类型人士适合与你合作,你适合什么工作等。

另一个重点是,你的风险承担能力不会保持不变,而是会随着年龄增长和经验更丰富而改变。一般上,第一或第二项产业投资最让你困扰,因你的经验仍不足;但之后购买产业时,你会感到越来越简单。

(3)情绪化的心态

投资容易影响情绪,因这涉及你辛苦赚取的储蓄。

投资时常出现的情绪包括:贪心、害怕、耐心、守纪律、胆量、自我、担心、无法冷静等。若无法控制情绪,它们将是你最大的敌人。

(4)融资计划的速度和时间的长度

如果你想很快致富,比如在5年内取得100万令吉,你所承担的风险,相对会高过计划在10年内取得100万令吉的人。

时限短风险大

融资计划的速度越快,或者时限越短,意味着你必须承担更大的风险。

(5)个人的强项与缺点

你必须开拓你的强项,以及积极改进自己的缺点。若是已婚人士,应考量和依赖配偶的财务强点和弱点。

比如,你的个性是属于比较害羞,个人沟通与谈判技巧是你的缺点,那你可能很难在产业投资方面取得成就,因你必须与很多人接洽,如产业洽谈商、卖家、银行、律师、租户等。

总结:

投资没有一定的“正确”或“错误”方式,只有最适合你的方式。

有鉴于此,投资是种艺术,而非科学。

因此,我相信每个人有必要先了解自己,知道自己想要的是什么,再从中找寻最适合自己的答案。

我将这些所谓的进场前概况分成10种,这期先谈到这里,下期我们继续另外5种考量。

米兰兵法:致富6大黄金法则

许多人都很熟悉成功哲学,例如拿破仑希尔(Napoleon Hill)的17个成功原则。
但我觉得有6个基本要素可以助你成为百万富翁,我故且称之为致富6大黄金法则。
自1998年起,我举办了很多场金融座谈会,接触到许多人。
在我和这些成功人士交流和观察中,我意识到,有6个基本要素或6大黄金法则,可助你成为百万富翁。
如果你想成功,你必须掌握这6大黄金法则:
(1)想要赚取与投资更多,就必须先多多学习。
假设我拥有一架时光机,我可以把你送回去5年,甚至10年前,那你认为,你今天的生活会有何不同?或许你会报读不同的课程、追求不同的事业,甚至是和不同人结婚!
今天的你和5年或10年前的你,有何差别?虽然基本上你是同一个人,但不同的是,你现在所拥有的智慧与经验是你多年前所缺乏的。
知识 + 真实生活经验 = 智慧
如果你想让生活攀上另一个层面,无论是赚取或投资更多金钱,你首先需要提升的是智慧和技能。
我会建议你从年收入中,预留和投资最少5%在自助的书籍,或参与一些投资座谈会。
在多年以后,这5%的区别会很大。
你只需要一个好的构思正确的思想与创富蓝图,便能彻底改变你的生活。
(2)结交更多志同道合的人。
我确定你会赞同这个说法,特别是在马来西亚,你所认识的比你所知道的更为重要。在正确的时机认识“对”的人,将可改变你的一生。
在你的朋友圈中,确保你是“最不精明”和最穷的。如果其他人比你精明与富有,在他们往上爬时,也会致力拉你一把。
相反的,假设你是最精明和富裕的那个人,你就有麻烦了!其他人会设法将你拉下,或者让你放慢脚步。
(3)以最快的速度,赚取最多的钱。
依我所见,你必须选择收入具备无限潜能的领域。如果你是一名雇员,最好的部门就是可以为你的公司带来利润的“前线”,例如行销、销售、股票交易、债券、货币、原产品以及其他等等。
实际上,拥有无限收入潜能的最佳方式就是发展自己的生意。
如果你拥有无限的收入潜能,你将可承受更大的投资风险。 任何无可预期的金融挫折,可通过更精明的工作方式,轻易地就可赚回。
反之,那些收入固定的人则需要更长的时间才能弥补任何损失。
(4)竭尽所能地储蓄, 以建立投资资金
我个人是不太相信储蓄这回事,特别是当你的储蓄少得无法做任何投资时候。
虽然存钱是非常重要,特别是在医疗紧急的情况下,但我觉得更重要的是你如何为自己定位,即实际上你并不需要担心存钱,因为这是你应该做的。
且让我与你分享一个真实个案。很多年前,一名单位信托顾问曾经参加我的课程,她问我:“我的顾客是一名德士司机,他每个月只能储蓄100令吉,他应该如何投资?”
我很坦率地回答她,每个月储蓄100令吉总比没有储蓄好,但仍无法远离他的德士司机生涯。
对他最好的方法就是,把每个月所存起来的100令吉,投资在有关商业或企业领导的自我帮助书籍。
这位德士司机需要的是,将今日当德士司机变成数年后拥有一个德士车队,这才是正确的思维方式和大转变。
如果他能够办得到,他就会自动储蓄。
(5)精明地借钱,确保你的潜在回酬高过借贷成本。
比方说,你购买的产业回酬为按年8%,而你的贷款则是按年4%。根据逻辑,你应该尽量借,是吗?是的,你一定要!有了银行的金援,你会越来越富裕。
事实上,即使是现金流充裕的公司,也有贷款。例如,云顶(Genting Berhad)坐拥数十亿美元,但是还是借钱在新加坡兴建新赌场。
为什么贷款对他们来说是合理的?那是因为他们预计该项目的回报远远超过他们的借贷成本。
事实上,可以证明你有多么富有的其中一个方法便是,你有能力借贷多少。
通常,可以借贷1亿令吉的人是比只能借贷1000万令吉的人富有;同样的,后者也肯定比只能借贷100万令吉的人富裕!
因此,不要害怕贷款,但是你必须确定能够精明地贷款,供正确的用途!
(6)明智地投资
我强力推荐专注于两个强大的资产类别,即产业与股票。这已经非常足够,你也不需要去考虑其他投资了。
使用产业逐步建立一个稳固、稳定与可预期的现金流。之后,善用你的产业贷款,去进行股票投资,在短期内,以最低的风险来赚取至少20%回酬。
如果你需要更多相关资讯,欢迎你阅读我的书籍。
最终,你的投资目标必须是通过业务、租金和投资组合收入,打造被动收入。你应该把重点放在产生现金流,而不是净值!
在我认识的一些人当中,有些具有丰富的资产与净值,但是却严重缺乏现金流。
他们的产业高度负债,有时候他们需要承担负现金流的问题,甚至是没有足够的金钱作为生活开支。
简要的总结这六大黄金之道,最重要的是首三个:
(1)大量学习
(2)开拓人脉网络
(3)提高收入
紧接在后的是:
(4)储蓄
(5)借贷
(6)投资
如果你可以掌握首三个,你不需要再理会剩下那3个。如果你可以赚足够的钱,就不用关注储蓄、借贷或甚至投资。 你甚至可以将你的储蓄放在定期存款,也不用担心会受到通货膨胀的影响,因为你的每月收入是绰绰有余,足以抵消任何逆境。
然而,要做到非常出色的话,你必须在同一时间掌握所有6大黄金法则。

米兰兵法:风险vs.回酬



                      
向发展商购买房子,价格相较下可能比二手市场“便宜”,但要承担的风险却非常高。
投资者必须谨慎衡量,风险与回酬的对比和关系。
作为精明的产业投资者,特别是购屋者,你必须不断衡量风险和预测回酬,此举适用于所有类型的投资。
你的投资目标,必须是承担最少的风险,以及取得最多的潜在回酬。
商业单位搁置的风险
我的好朋友乔安妮,于1995年以30万令吉在雪邦购下一个双层店铺单位,因她预计吉隆坡国际机场(KLIA)有助带动附近的发展计划。
经过数度展延,发展商最终成功完成这计划,然而,在他们被允许申请电力和水务供应之前,却陷入破产情况。
至今,这发展已完全停止,没有人能够迁入这区。乔安妮仍支付银行贷款,但幸好的是,她和丈夫都属于高收入人士,有能力承担负面的现金流出。
他们有意在未来数年内还清贷款,以注销他们的投资。
这种情况下,乔安妮唯一的安慰是她不贪心,当时没有购买超过一个单位!
投资有租户单位
如果购买最基本的新单位,你必须花钱小装修,以及购买基本家具如灯、橱柜、厨房柜、窗帘等,好让房子适于居住,这一切都耗时和耗金钱。
至于二手单位,你可选择购买已完成且符合个人要求的单位,以便能直接迁入居住。
如果作为投资用途,可选择已拥有租户的单位;一旦这产业转至你名下,租赁合约将归于你。
你就不必为找寻合适租户、装修或购买家具问题而烦恼。
兴建期间难脱售产业
兴建期间的产业比较难脱售,因为难以寻获买家。
你可通过发展商协助找寻买家,但他们将征收销售佣金和其他成本,幸运的话,就能找到买家购买你的单位。
不过,许多发展商都不愿在兴建期间提供这方面协助,因这会将法律的文书工作复杂化。
与其他卖主竞争
产业竣工和取得钥匙之后,市场顿时多了数百个要脱售的单位。
若你计划脱售,就必须与其他卖家竞争;即使计划出租,也须与许多业主竞争。
首一两年内,这会是买家和业主的恶梦。此外,首几年内,售价和租金率会比较不稳定和波动。
流失机会和持有成本
假设你订购价值50万令吉的公寓,并支付10%或5万令吉首期。
如果你的现金有限,你便无法参与之后出现的投资机会,也就是流失了机会和金钱!
如果你计划在产业竣工后脱售,你必须考量所有成本,例如:
(a)机会成本
(b)若提早还清银行贷款,或须支付利息成本和罚款
(c)买卖协议、贷款文件和赎回贷款的律师费
(d)印花税(如果是购买有地产业)
(e)产业盈利税(如果在5年内脱售)
(f)支付给产业经纪的销售佣金
你的潜在利润,是否有将这些成本和风险加入考量?

米兰兵法:接下来,市场往哪走?



投资策略  产业周刊
  2011-11-13 13:43

走过2008年掀起的金融风暴,再到去年的大飙涨,目前再面对欧美债务危机,甚至酝酿全球衰退。

市场许多人揣测会有产业泡沫,但之后有多方反驳。

目前大家最关心的应该是:接下来,产业市场究竟会趋往哪个方向?

2009年,由于面对全球经济危机,是个经济放缓的年份;而2010年,经济则在政府推行经济振兴配套的带动下复苏。

对于一些旺区价格飙升的情况,市场的部分说法是,这是2009年需求受压所导致。

那年,发展商提供优惠配套是非常普遍的现象,即只需支付5%订金和0%利息直至一项发展计划完成为止。

同样地,各银行业提供吸引人的利率,即利息率是大约加3%或减4%。

产业价持续扬升

步入2011年,产业投资者已调整他们的投资策略。

产业价格已超越经济危机前的水平,光是2010年上半年内,巴生谷、槟城和柔佛一些旺区的有地房屋,价格就已增长了10%至30%。

国家银行发布的《2010年金融稳定与付款系统报告》,我们看到市中心和市郊部分地点的房价,已经上涨至比国家房屋价格指数高出四倍。

国行一直密切观察市场的情况,更实施了第三个房贷借贷者贷款顶限定于70%的管制政策。

然而,狡猾的产业买家却透过使用配偶或亲戚名字来申请贷款的方式,来避开这些限制。

一些买家则选择购买商务产业,因此类产业的贷款顶限是80%(而不是70%,即如果买家目前已拥有超过两项住宅产业)。

改投资商用产业

此外,商用产业的资本增值和租金回酬也比住宅产业高。因此,部分买家已经改变策略,转往投资商用产业。

利率稍涨 投资情绪续谨慎

2011年5月初,国行将隔夜政策利率(OPR)调高25基点至3%,也将法定储备率(SRR)上修至3%。

这导致银行纷纷将基本贷款利率(BLR)和基本融资利率(BFR)各提高30%至6.60%。

但部分银行仍提供扣除2%的BLR,即实际利率仍低过5%。

不过,产业投资者仍非常谨慎地看待利率稍涨的情况。

产业买家有必要根据他们的付款能力来作出购买决意,也将租金回酬预测加入考量。

如今,全新的发展计划仍持续涌入市场,尤其在巴生谷和“大吉隆坡”(Greater Kuala Lumpur)一带。

很多报告也显示,投资者仍然非常活跃,因即使产业价扬升,许多产业在推介当日便被投资者扫空。

我认为,目前要检讨管制条例对市场的影响还太早。

转向二手产业投资

问:价格不断飙涨,加上市场有许多产业将泡沫化的说法,目前投资房地产是否安全?

答:“安全”,是个很主观的词汇。我较喜欢将风险和潜能回酬作比较。过去两年内,即全球经济危机之后,价格激增30至50%是一个“一次过”的现象,而这 现象不可能在今年重新出现。今年,我们很可能重返“正常化”情况,价格每年增长5%至10%。一些供应过剩地点,或价格已增长至难以接受的水平的旺区内, 可能会有价格调整的现象。

目前,向发展商购买产业的风险似乎提高了很多,但潜能惠利却不是很显眼。我认为,这当中的风险包括:

(a)由于发展商在短时间内陆续推介新产业,许多地方已有供应过剩的现象。一旦新计划竣工后,市场需要时间来吸纳这些供应量。

(b)许多新公司,如承包商,已成为产业发展上。这是问题出现的迹象。

产业投资者有必要将焦点转向二手市场,那里仍有许多良好的产品。只要能够以较市价低5%至10%,而且这产业坐落在发展完善的地点,即拥有高需求且低未来供应量,我就会认为这是不错的购买选择。

Thursday, January 5, 2012

Genting unit plans US$4b New York job

Genting Malaysia Bhd plans to invest at least US$4 billion to develop a convention and exhibition centre with hotel rooms and expand its casino in New York City, according to a statement to the Kuala Lumpur stock exchange

Genting Malaysia Bhd’s shares climbed to a one-month high on expectations its US$4 billion plan to build the biggest convention center in the U.S. may help boost visitors to its nearby casino, the first in New York City.

The convention and exhibition center will include hotel rooms and an expansion of its casino in the Aqueduct Racetrack in Queens, the Kuala Lumpur-based company said in a statement to the Malaysian stock exchange today. New York Governor Andrew Cuomo yesterday called for replacing the Jacob Javits Convention Center in Manhattan with the new 3.8 million-square-foot complex.

“It is a long-term planning that they do to make sure that in the future, there will be more consistent flow of business and people there,” Low Yee Huap, head of research at Hong Leong Financial Group Bhd, said in an interview in Kuala Lumpur today.

The investment will extend the Malaysian company’s reach in the U.S. after opening the New York City casino on Oct. 28 and amid plans for a US$3.8 billion casino-and-hotel complex in Miami. The company, along with its parent Genting Bhd, also owns and operates gaming resorts in the U.K., Malaysia and Singapore.

Genting Malaysia climbed 0.8 per cent to RM3.91 as of 4:01 p.m. in Kuala Lumpur, set for its highest since Dec. 5.

Cuomo said in his State of the State speech in Albany, the capital, that the Jacob Javits Center is “not competitive,” adding that the proposed Genting project will eclipse Chicago’s McCormick Place. The new development will include as many as 3,000 hotel rooms, he said.

Genting Malaysia’s New York unit is in talks with the state and expects a binding agreement by the end of November, it said in the statement.

米兰兵法:向发展商买产业的弊端(上篇)


著名产业投资大师米兰多施

* 投资策略   产业周刊

2011-11-27 14:17


上一期专栏中,我分享了向发展商购买产业的好处。这一期,我们来看看,这产业购买方式,又有何坏处。

产业发展是一项高风险但有利可图的行业,因它提供20%至30%的盈利赚幅。

因此,许多专业人士和企业家纷纷进军产业发展这行业。同时,许多产业投资者(包括我!)经常梦想有朝一日也能成为发展商!

记得在1995年,我第一次参加一家上市公司的股东常年大会。

由于有意进军产业发展行业,这家衣服制造商针对在巴生谷购买一块大型土地,征求股东们批准。

当一些忠诚的长期股东询问欲让业务方向进行大转变的原因时,该公司主席的回应是,衣服行业将成为大马的一项“日落”行业。

该公司董事部是因看准产业发展能提供更高的营业额和丰裕的盈利赚幅,才决定进军这行业。

然而,1998年亚洲金融风暴之后,这家 上市公司被接管,而如今已从大马交易所除牌;因为,他们的首项产业发展计划,“赔上”了整家公司。此时受苦最多的人士,除了产业买家,也包括股东。

担心产业货不对版

买家向发展商购买产业必须承担以下风险:

1.建筑工程启动前后,发生发展商倒闭事件。

今日著名的发展商,可以是明日破产的发展商。比如,我的邻居在富都车站附近购买了3个店铺单位,惟这些产业遭搁置。至今,他已经支付了30万令吉的工程进度付款;其资金就困在这些产业上。

2.产业延期完成。

这情况下,你会根据买卖协议的条件取得现金赔偿,又或者发展商会以免除指定期限的服务和维修费,来作为赔偿?

3.次等素质和人工粗糙,而且不符合规格。

你可能发觉地板破裂和凹凸不平、容易破损的屋角、地砖不牢固等。虽然房子递交之后,仍有18个月的缺陷修复义务期,发展商会多快采取行动和修复缺陷的成果,仍拭目以待。

4.缺乏所承诺的公用设施,如公园、保安等。

大部分发展商会专注于可快速向银行收取工程进度付款的工程。其他建筑工程如公用设施、公园等的费用,只在最后才能够向银行收取。

5.对于高楼或围篱发展计划,一般上会延迟取得分层地契,或者更糟是从未获得。

只要发展商能够透过向住户收取每月维修费,他们会无意完成对买家的义务,花费申请分层地契。

6.接近竣工期的经济展望。

如果当初购买有关产业的目的,是在竣工后脱售,但恰好经济陷入不景气,你将会感到非常失望。

7.在你购买的单位附近,不清楚未来会有什么发展。

比如说,你的房子可能面向一个非法住宅区、大水沟、化粪池、高压电线、高速大道等。这一切,都不会列在产业销售小册子和建筑实物模型。

大部分买家做出投诉是,发展商没有兑现所有承诺。买家最终所取得的成品,并不如销售册子和广告所显示一般漂亮和拥有诱人的设计。

买家间接承担风险

产业发展商为了取得盈利,可能会面对以下风险:

1.以对的价格,对的时机,在对的地点,购买对的土地。
2.在开始销售活动和建筑工程启动之前,无法取得各个政府单位的相关批准。
3.基于劳工和/或原料短缺,面对工程展延和/或超资问题。
4.与融资发展计划相关的问题。
5.过度的行销开支或使用不正确的行销策略。
6.认购率很低或不理想。据了解,建筑工程只在发展商能预售指定百分比的产业单位才会启动,这百分比依土地成本而定,一般上介于30至50%。财务能力不 够雄厚的发展商,不愿冒着单位滞销的风险。为了降低亏损,他们可能选择不启动建筑工程,甚至中途搁置建筑工程,又或者透过偷工减料的方式来妥协素质问题 等。
7.如果延迟递交产业,必须根据买卖协议内的条件与规定来支付罚款给买家。
8.与附近的产业计划竞争。

Wednesday, January 4, 2012

米兰兵法 by 米兰多施 (著名产业投资大师)

投资策略
产业周刊
  2011-11-20 13:37

基本上,有两种方式购买产业。你可以向发展商购买尚在建筑的新单位(有些发展商有销售已完成的新单位,或有可能是未售出的单位),或者你可以从二手市场购买旧产业。

在1997年之前的“大马能”或高经济增长时代,最容易赚钱的方法便是趁产业推出市场时,向发展商订购3个单位。

当产业在2至3年后竣工时,你把其中2个单位卖出,所赚取的盈利将足以还清第三个单位的贷款。

那个时候,看见人群为了订购几个单位而排队几天,甚至是几晚,是很正常的事情,情况和1、2年前一样。就算是排队的号码也很值钱!

这就是“动机买家”(Motivated Buyers)的时代——人们都有一种“怕输”(福建话为的心态,害怕在所有单位被认购之前,无法订购到足够数量的好单位。

价格或发展商的信誉反而不是一个问题。当时的想法是以高价买,更高价卖!

选择信誉好发展商

自1997/98亚洲金融危机后,看见一些遭搁置或劣质项目,从而窥探向发展商购买产业的高风险。这些投资策略至今仍然有效。

想在今天的市场成功,你必须:

a)选择合适的产业类型,因为生活方式是当今最重要的因素。

买家所关注的东西包括摩登设计、设施,如游泳池、保安、至少2个停车位以及进出方便等等。

b)选择有信誉和记录良好的发展商,因为“发展商风险”极高。

c)选择合适的地点,即高需求以及目前和未来的供应低。

d)在合适的时机或价格购买。建议你看准购买的时机,以及避免在市场高峰期购买,以防万一当产业在2至3年竣工后,遇上经济低迷时期。理想的情况下,你应该在市场低迷或经济走出衰退时购买。

在这篇文章中,我们应该研究向发展商购买的优势。

【向发展商购产业的9大优势】

1)有机会以“廉价”购买

发展商的价格通常都是最低价。因此,在大多数情况下,你是以最低价购买,当然发展商已经为该单位作出合理定价,而且地理位置是十分优越的。

因此,重要的是要做好功课,以确保发展商的销售价格可媲美与同一地区内的其他发展商。为质量相似的项目作出价格比较的最佳方法是,根据每平方尺的价格。

2)在最短的时间内,价格快速升值

吸引许多投资者向发展商购买产业的最大优势是,价格通常在最短的时间内,最快升值。当产业在2至3年后竣工时,价格通常会增值至少10至20%,这计算了利息与持有成本。

假设你支付的首期是10至20%,这意味着在短短数年内,获得100%或更多现金回酬。

3)指定人士获得折扣

许多发展商为公务员、土著、公司职员及商业伙伴等等,提供5至10%折扣。如果你有幸获得折扣,应该考虑充分利用它,因机会不可能永远存在。

另一个可以享有折扣的方式便是,连同有兴趣的朋友、亲戚或者同事,向发展商购买。与其你们每个人各自购买1个单位,你可以组队,与发展商洽谈团购的折扣。

4)“早起的鸟儿”(EarlyBird)的优势

俗语说:“早起的鸟儿有虫吃”。如果你是一个“早鸟”,你可以选择你喜欢的单位,它可以面向一个公园、早晨的太阳、角头单位、高楼层等。通常,你还可以享有一个具吸引力的“早鸟”优惠!

许多投资者在发展商推出项目初期已作出投资,一旦后期阶段以更高的价格推出,早期阶段的价格将自动水涨船高。

5)全新单位

你可以给自己购买一个全新且富有最新现代设计与布局的产业,而不是购买一个已经20年的旧单位,需要不时进行重大维修或重新油漆。

6)保证无缺陷

根据房屋发展条例,住宅产业发展商从移交产业日期起的至少18个月内,保证产业无缺陷,如厕所泄漏、墙壁裂缝、瓷砖松脱等。
根据法律规定,发展商的律师会为此保留购价的5%。

值得注意的是,商用产业、服务式公寓以及店铺公寓并不会受到任何相关政府条规,或者任何房屋发展条例的约束。

另一方面,二手住宅产业的买家无法享受这种好处,因为他们是在“根据现状”的情况下购买。

7)具吸引力和创意的行销方案

a)100%融资。

b)免费律师费、印花税及支付费用。

c)最初几年的服务与维修费由发展商承担。

d)租金保证。

e)发展商提供赠品,如空调、卧室衣柜、厨柜以及装修厕所等。

8)最初的现金支出是最少的

在签署买卖协议时,你只是支付总数的10%。如果你申请90%贷款,在建筑期间,银行将逐步发放贷款给发展商。

一旦银行发放所有贷款,你必须开始支付利息和母金。

如果目前你的手头紧以及希望可以提高日后的收入,这或许是一个理想的财务计划。

9)对计划结婚的人有用

你可以安排结婚日期与梦想家园的竣工期在同一时期。

如果你希望产业价格在数年后有所增长,向发展商购买产业可让你以当前的价格“锁定”该产业。

Latex glove makers to bounce back

Malaysia’s largest latex glove makers, many of them world leaders, had a tough 2011 on many fronts, as most experienced lower on-year profits and margins. However, analysts say their fortunes are improving going into 2012 as the emerging threat of bird flu in China and Hong Kong may attract investor interest to these counters.

Last Saturday’s death of a man in China from bird flu or influenza H5N1 — the reported human case in the country in 18 months — has put health authorities in the region on alert although the virus does not spread from person to person. In December, Hong Kong raised the city’s bird flu alert level to “serious” and culled thousands of chickens after three birds tested positive for the H5N1 virus strain.

Back in 2009, the H1N1 pandemic led to surge in demand for gloves which led to overstocking by healthcare providers and major distributors, subsequently contributing to a challenging operating environment for glove makers in 2011.

While it is unclear how serious a threat H5N1 is at this juncture, other factors are looking up for latex glove makers.

For one, the US dollar — the currency glove-makers are paid in — have appreciated versus the ringgit from their lows of around the 2.90-levels in 2011 to about 3.18 now. TA Securities, for instance, calculated that a 1% appreciation in the greenback could work out to some 2% to 3% higher earnings for Top Glove Corp Bhd and Supermax Group Bhd.

Hon Seow Mee, an analyst with HwangDBS Vickers Research, who earlier in predicting the rout for glove makers in 2011, sees the stronger greenback boosting revenues. “Our sensitivity analysis shows that every 1% increase in US dollar versus the ringgit could lift earnings by around 5%,” Hon wrote in a note dated Dec 20.

Nonetheless, given the volatility in currency trends, she pointed out that glove makers are likely to hedge US dollar exposure,  something that could result in wide fluctuations in translation gains or losses. Whatever the case, the lower cost of latex is definitely a plus point for glove makers like Top Glove and Supermax which sell more gloves made of natural rubber than synthetic (nitrile) rubber, analysts said. Latex — which suddenly spiked from an average of RM3.30 per kg end-2009 to never-before-seen levels of RM10.60 per kg in February 2011 — accounts for 60% to 70% of production cost.

Prices had since declined by 37% to average around RM6.70 per kg in December 2011. The expected slower demand from Chinese automakers in 2012 means latex prices may continue to ease or stabilise at current levels, analysts said.

“China’s auto market has slowed down and tyres use up 70% of global natural rubber. A lower demand from the tyre industry will lead to excess capacity in the industry,” Jason Yap, an OSK Research analyst who tracks the rubber glove sector, told The Edge Financial Daily recently.




He expects latex prices to be less volatile in 2012. “As the European market is still uncertain, there will be less speculative elements on the commodity side,” Yap said, forecasting prices to stay around RM6 to RM7 per kg this year and over the longer term.

One factor to watch is how latex prices perform ahead of the low production “wintering” season between February and April, analysts said.

According to TA Research, a 1% drop in latex prices could lead to a 4% to 5% increase in net profit for Supermax and Top Glove. To be sure, actual numbers may differ given the impact of other factors like demand as well as product mix.

Nitrile currently accounts for 33% and 17% of Supermax and Top Glove’s production mix respectively, according to a recent report by TA Securities. New glove production lines are able to switch between producing nitrile and latex gloves, officials at  JComments both companies have said.
Conversely, synthetic rubber gloves make up 80% of production of Hartalega Holdings Bhd, the world’s largest nitrile glove maker, which did much better than its peers in 2011. While the price of nitrile, a byproduct of crude oil, too has declined from  its peak in mid-2011, the decline is smaller than that of latex, analysts said. Crude oil is still near US$100 (RM317) levels.

Latex prices, on the other hand, may slide further than the price of hard rubber, which is supported by the Thai-government.Thailand’s floor price of US$3 per kg for hard rubber implies a floor price of roughly RM5.70 for latex, which is 40% water, OSK’s Yap estimated.

He also sees latex glove players benefiting from the production of thinner gloves, which cost less to produce and had gained acceptance as customers searched for cheaper alternatives when latex prices spiked in 2011.

Given these factors, analysts think latex glove players have a greater chance of better growth in 2012 versus nitrile glovemakers.

TA Securities, for instance, recently wrote that “2012 could see a glut of nitrile gloves” given that manufacturers here and in China had ramped up production when demand was strong.

While a rise in nitrile prices is less of a worry, there is concern over potential competition from rivals in China, something that would put pressure on pricing and margins. According to Yap, the Chinese government is also offering rebates to its nation’s glove-makers, which allows them to undercut competitors.

Even so, analysts do not see the current leading nitrile glove player, Hartalega, faring badly in 2012.
“I don’t believe Hartalega will be significantly affected. Competition will be there but because of its high technology, it actually produces gloves targeting the high-end market, which I think Chinese [competitors] may take some time to penetrate,” said Yap.

Hartalega has 11 “buys”, one “hold” and zero “sell”, according to Bloomberg. With an RM8.44 price target, CIMB Research is  the most bullish, while RHB Research is the least with a RM6.06 valuation. Hartalega closed at RM5.84 on Dec 30.

Kossan, on the other hand, has 11 “buys” and five “holds” with target prices ranging between Nomura Research’s RM2.51and OSK’s RM5. It closed at RM3.25 on Dec 30, up 2.85% for the year.
Is consensus behind the curve on Top Glove, or have prices run ahead of fundamentals?

While Top Glove has only five analysts calling it a “buy” versus seven “hold” and 10 “sells”, its stock price had continued to appreciate to reach RM5 on Dec 30. That’s ahead of 13 of the 17 price targets available on Bloomberg.

For Supermax, OSK is the most bullish of six analysts with a “buy”, valuing it at RM5.50. Kenanga Research has the lowest price target of RM2.94, with a “hold” recommendation.

Buy Genting shares: OSK

OSK Retail Research is advising traders to buy Genting Bhd shares at the current level or buy on weakness at above RM11.06 a share.

It said the stock might eventually exceed the tough resistance between RM11.78 to RM11.98 to clinch a record high.

OSK's cut-loss point is pegged at below RM11.06 a share.

"The RM11.06 level now represents the immediate strong support.

A minor support could be found at the lower level of RM10.68 and further down, strong support is detected at RM10.24 level.

"The RM11.78 and RM11.98 levels are the remaining tough resistance to overcome," it said in a research note today.

The research firm said Genting gained 24 sen yesterday after it cracked above the RM10 and RM11.06 consolidation phase in the September-October rebound