Friday, February 15, 2013

金融大鳄索罗斯再次出手 押注日元贬值大赚10亿美元

一些美国大型对冲基金投资客利用日本贬值日元的决心,将数十亿美元的资金押在了日元贬值获利。

据悉,过去三个月做空日元已成为华尔街最热门的投机交易。乔治-索罗斯在20世纪90年代就通过做空英镑大赚一笔,而据知情人士透露,索罗斯自去年以来已 经通过做空日元大赚了近10亿美元。据一些投资人士透露,戴维-艾因霍恩的绿光资本、丹尼尔·勒布的Third Point公司、凯尔-巴斯的海曼资本管理公司都通过做空日元近期获利丰厚。

在大约四个月的时间里,日元在日益增长的做空交易压力下,已经下跌了20%。分析人士担忧,日元的日益下降可能会反过来推动全球货币战争。为此,德国和法国等国家一直批评日本的政策,而其他国家甚至威胁要采取行动来主动贬值本国货币,与日本保持竞争力。很多国家与日本一样,都依赖出口,因此本国货币贬值就更有利可图。

其实在去年年底,在安倍晋三当选为日本首相前,投资者就已经开始了日元做空交易。当安倍晋三不同寻常的公开表示要压低汇率后,交易员们增加了头寸,近一步促使了日元贬值。银行的销售人员和交易员告诉对冲基金和其他投资者,现在做大做空日元是正确的时间。

数据显示,安倍晋三的当选对美国对冲基金的销售影响很大。截至本周三,1美元兑换约93日元,而11月中旬的汇率约为79日元。

但与索罗斯早期做空英镑的举动不同的是,索罗斯和其他对冲基金的做空行为不太可能动摇日本或日元本身。部分原因是日元交易是一个更深层次的市场,这会让投资者很难做出判断。

与此鲜明不同的是,索罗斯当年做空英镑的很大一部分原因是反对英国央行的政策,而目前对冲基金正在进行的交易,却是希望日本央行的货币政策能够成功击败通货紧缩。

目前,又有一批投资者加入了做空日元的贸易中,越来越多的投资者用自己的方式,赶浪头似的加入到做空日元的交易中,热情高涨。

据知情人士透露,掌管240亿美元、82岁的索罗斯自去年做空日元以来,其公司账面利润增加了近10亿美元。索罗斯基金管理公司从去年夏天开始,就在不断做空日元,还对日本股市进行了投资。戴维-艾因霍恩的绿光资本在今年1月的收益中,有3%来自对日元的做空交易。

做空日元不适合胆子小的投资者。日本多年来一直在努力试图贬值货币,刺激经济和股市,但是收效不大。因此很多人对日元采取了空头头寸,这使得做空日本成为华尔街众所周知的“寡妇制造者”。

在本周末莫斯科G20财长会议上,日本的新经济政策将被重点讨论。七国集团是否支持安倍晋三的政策,将是对日本央行和安倍晋三的一次施压。日本央行此前已经承诺采取新的货币宽松政策和债券购买计划,希望结束日本长期的通货紧缩和货币贬值带来的经常性副作用。

目前,一些对冲基金已经削减了做空日元的欲望,担心日本政府的政策变化会造成日元短期内的波动,从而造成巨大损失。现在还不清楚日元下跌带来的“疼痛”有 多大程度,一些交易员和分析师表示,日本的出口商目前正面临着汇率波动带来的潜在损失,日本出口商需要买日元,他们相信日元贬值不会长久。

Wednesday, February 13, 2013

胡立阳股票投资100招-第55招-股市大跌,换股操作启动

投资人问:

最近股市大跌,我手中的几只股票也都跌得惨兮兮的。甚至连一些过去根本买不起的高价龙头股也下跌超过了三成,很想趁机买进,但又很怕,因为资金有限啊!今天行情终于出现大反弹,很怕错过最后捡便宜的机会,更是坐立难安,究竟该怎么办才好呢?

行情在一波大跌之后,终于略有起色,好比久旱逢甘霖。很多人会心急地问:“可以进场了吗?股价已经很便宜了呢!”

我知道,大家都在高档套牢了不少,现在最想做的就是在低点赶紧把钱赚回来。要小心,此时若过于急躁,只会让你越套越多。

首先,股市在久病之后突然又爬了起来的头两三天,仍然很虚弱,还须留在特护病房继续观察,而这个观察期短则10天,长则需要1个月以上,才能确认行情已经转危为安。

但是,这并不是说,大家什么都不能做。

你应利用这段期间,密切注意过去一再错失买进良机的那些好股票的表现,机会或许会再度光临,先做好“换股操作”的准备。在股市有逐渐走稳迹象的初期,我从不建议手中已有不少套牢持股的投资朋友再掏腰包来做加码,只会鼓励以等量资金来换股操作。

行情高涨的时候,百分之百的投资人都自动会换股操作。因为卖出股票赚到了钱之后,总是会兴高采烈地又匆匆投进另一只股票的怀抱,如果你卖出了甲,却又买进了乙,高价换高价,根本是在自掌嘴巴嘛。

在暴跌行情中,才是换股操作的真正好时机,要积极做好准备工作。

那要准备些什么呢?以下是四个步骤:

(1)先将股市下跌以来,手中表现最差的股票卖掉
千万别舍不得!担心会卖到最底点?以为一卖掉,股市第二天就会出现“V”型反弹?你应该还没有这种能耐!别忘了,要有舍才有得啊!

(2)卖掉之后最好要冷静个一两周,不要操之过急地左手卖右手买
很多人以为换股操作就是在当天完成买进卖出,而这是最大的错误,这么做,其实充满矛盾,也捡不到便宜。正确且安全的做法永远是:先卖,过几天再买!

这段时间,可以仔细观察、比较心中理想的几个对象:它们的表现是否优于大盘,谁的成绩又是最好?

(3)如果大势仍然阴晴不定,必须发挥“停、看、听”的耐心
我注意到,“新手套高档,老手套摸底”。不要担心错失买在最低价的机会,因为,行情走空了一段时间,底部也只会逐步形成,最可能出现的是,缓缓上升的“锅底”形态。换句话说,宁愿慢半拍,也不能因心急而二度套牢,以后想买也没有钱了。

(4)当新的标的股出现“大盘大跌它小跌,大盘小跌它不跌,大盘小涨它大涨”,其中任一的情况只要连续两次,便可立即进场执行换股操作的动作

在股市中,有许多重要的投资技巧,“换股操作”就是其中之一,只要运用恰当,它的确能提供你反败为胜的机会

胡立阳股票投资100招-第55招-股市大跌,换股操作启动

投资人问:

最近股市大跌,我手中的几只股票也都跌得惨兮兮的。甚至连一些过去根本买不起的高价龙头股也下跌超过了三成,很想趁机买进,但又很怕,因为资金有限啊!今天行情终于出现大反弹,很怕错过最后捡便宜的机会,更是坐立难安,究竟该怎么办才好呢?

行情在一波大跌之后,终于略有起色,好比久旱逢甘霖。很多人会心急地问:“可以进场了吗?股价已经很便宜了呢!”

我知道,大家都在高档套牢了不少,现在最想做的就是在低点赶紧把钱赚回来。要小心,此时若过于急躁,只会让你越套越多。

首先,股市在久病之后突然又爬了起来的头两三天,仍然很虚弱,还须留在特护病房继续观察,而这个观察期短则10天,长则需要1个月以上,才能确认行情已经转危为安。

但是,这并不是说,大家什么都不能做。

你应利用这段期间,密切注意过去一再错失买进良机的那些好股票的表现,机会或许会再度光临,先做好“换股操作”的准备。在股市有逐渐走稳迹象的初期,我从不建议手中已有不少套牢持股的投资朋友再掏腰包来做加码,只会鼓励以等量资金来换股操作。

行情高涨的时候,百分之百的投资人都自动会换股操作。因为卖出股票赚到了钱之后,总是会兴高采烈地又匆匆投进另一只股票的怀抱,如果你卖出了甲,却又买进了乙,高价换高价,根本是在自掌嘴巴嘛。

在暴跌行情中,才是换股操作的真正好时机,要积极做好准备工作。

那要准备些什么呢?以下是四个步骤:

(1)先将股市下跌以来,手中表现最差的股票卖掉
千万别舍不得!担心会卖到最底点?以为一卖掉,股市第二天就会出现“V”型反弹?你应该还没有这种能耐!别忘了,要有舍才有得啊!

(2)卖掉之后最好要冷静个一两周,不要操之过急地左手卖右手买
很多人以为换股操作就是在当天完成买进卖出,而这是最大的错误,这么做,其实充满矛盾,也捡不到便宜。正确且安全的做法永远是:先卖,过几天再买!

这段时间,可以仔细观察、比较心中理想的几个对象:它们的表现是否优于大盘,谁的成绩又是最好?

(3)如果大势仍然阴晴不定,必须发挥“停、看、听”的耐心
我注意到,“新手套高档,老手套摸底”。不要担心错失买在最低价的机会,因为,行情走空了一段时间,底部也只会逐步形成,最可能出现的是,缓缓上升的“锅底”形态。换句话说,宁愿慢半拍,也不能因心急而二度套牢,以后想买也没有钱了。

(4)当新的标的股出现“大盘大跌它小跌,大盘小跌它不跌,大盘小涨它大涨”,其中任一的情况只要连续两次,便可立即进场执行换股操作的动作

在股市中,有许多重要的投资技巧,“换股操作”就是其中之一,只要运用恰当,它的确能提供你反败为胜的机会

胡立阳股票投资100招-第54招- 盘中抢反弹,如何抢对宝

胡立阳股票投资100招-第54招- 盘中抢反弹,如何抢对宝
投资人问:

我每天一大早必定要到营业厅看盘,三年来如一日,且风雨无阻,每个客户经理都认识我,他们对我好客气!言归正传,我之所以保持全勤,是因为喜欢抢个短线玩 玩,特别是每当遇上大盘急跌,我会立刻买进盘面上跌得最凶的个股希望大赚一票。但几十次的经验显示,往往是赚了指数却赔了股价,我选的个股并没有随指数反 弹而上涨,令我伤透了心!是否可请您传授在盘中抢反弹的秘诀?我不能再买错个股了!

我一向不建议投资朋友过于频繁地短线进出,但在股市中,像你一样的人不少,的确有必要多提供大家一些实战经验。

以往每遇到突发利空,指数在盘中出现戏剧性的急挫,个股也纷纷中箭落马,一定有不少人会动脑筋想趁乱抢个反弹。但是,该挑什么样的个股才最有胜算呢?

多年来的细心观察,我心中最理想的具备反弹实力的个股买进排名依序是:
(1)原本已涨停锁死,却又因此打开来了的个股
(2)相对抗跌的强势股
(3)跌深但已出现单日“W底”或“倒头肩”型走势的个股

总有不少投资人特别喜欢去挑那些跌得最凶的几只,原因莫非是希望一举赚到最大的上下价差。这么做好吗?

基本上,跌得最凶的那些个股必须符合上述第(3)项的原则,这样才能避免因捡便宜却捡到的是别人急着丢出来的烫手山芋。

以“倒头肩”型走势为例,个股当日交易若出现这种走法,表示股价虽一度超跌,但买盘已介入且卖方已经缩手,此时抢个反弹之风险不大。

抢个一日反弹相当刺激,但是要有技术。首先,提醒大家要避开“第二波”跌得比“第一波”还深的个股。平常有机会在营业厅观盘的人,应耐心观察最具关键性的“第三波”发展,倘若这个“第三波”又是每况愈下式的跌得更深,那么根据统计,该股在当日由绿翻红的几率会低于10%。

相反的,若第三波的下跌能提前终止于第二波的低点之上,而股价已呈现“倒头肩”型的走势,则个股不但转危为安,且还有机相反的,若第三波的下跌能提前终止于第二波的低点之上,而股价已呈现“倒头肩”型的走势,则个股不但转危为安,且还有机会展开当日的强劲反弹行情。

举例说明:某只个股的开盘价是80元,但就在开盘后它一路下跌到77元,然后迅速回弹到79元,不幸却因在79元附近遇上突袭卖压,硬是又被打了下来;而 这次更惨,居然跌到了新低点的75元,此后虽又是一波反弹,却仍是撞到了79元的铁板之后出现了第三波下跌。但需注意,这第三波的下跌如果只是来到77元 就又缩脚了,机会终于来了,因为“倒头肩”的图形已经出现!77元将是一个较佳的当日买点!









很多人虽喜欢在盘中买来卖去的做短线交易,但却毫无耐心且从不去细心观察股价走势。

想预测大盘当日的走势?指数在盘中的图形变化也常提供了许多线索。

总之,在盘中抢反弹原本就属于高难度的行为,千万别以为买进跌得最凶的个股就有大赚的机会,要知道,有些个股之所以会跌得这么惨是另有原因的。









运用“倒头肩”或者是右脚比左脚高的“W底”等等代表底部完成的图形来先行过滤,才能增加获胜几率。
盘中股价经过两次拉回,但是出现了右脚比左脚高的W底图型,也非常可贵,同样是买进的好选择。

1985年2月至8月间,我抽样20只华尔街各行业具代表性的蓝筹股,依据它们在盘中的股价变化所获得的统计结果显示,当日行情中,个股出现右脚比左脚高 的“W底”反弹形态时,若依上图①及②买点买进,能赚到当日差价的几率分别是:在①位置大约65%;在②位置大约77%。

胡立阳股票投资100招-第53招-头肩底、多重底与W底的区别

投资人问:

我是一个虔诚的技术分析迷,这方面的书看过不下十余本,现在也小有心得了。只是,在运用图形来选股票时,一直有个令我头大的问题,那就是:当有三只个股分别呈现“头肩底”、“多重底”以及“W底”时,究竟该选择哪一只?

虽然它们都代表着即将反弹的意义。我曾经请教过许多专家,他们都说我是神经病,太吹毛求疵了,我是吗?

许多投资人对股票技术分析中的图形极感兴趣,他们对各种图形的走势是好是坏都相当的清楚。特别是,当股票在底部等待反转的时刻,他们往往会兴奋地说:“现在图形已出现‘W’底形态,行情一定就要翻身了。”当然,看到“头肩底”或者是“多重底”的图形,更会令他们雀跃一番!

长久以来,技术迷总喜欢问:“W底”、“头肩底”以及“多重底”这3种基本反转图形中究竟以哪一种最为神勇、最是厉害?这的确是一个非常有趣也值得研究的问题。

20多年前,我为了找出答案,曾经花了整整一年多的时间,请了两位研究员,利用电脑将世界几个主要股市中大约1000只个股在过去10年的图形表现做了统计,得到了初步答案,虽不敢说百分之百的正确,但已足够将研究心得提出来供大家参考。

我发现,这3种反转图形的“厉害”程度,依排名分别是:

(1)头肩底
(2)多重底
(3)W底。


而 根据统计,当个股出现头肩底的形态时,股价在反弹时往往有回收60%失土甚至更多的几率!举个例说,某只个股由100元跌到50元后,图形呈现“头肩底” 的反弹架构,若日后反弹成真,则股价有由50元回升至80元的潜力。因为由100元下跌到50元,那损失50元的60%是30元,因此回收了30元,反弹 到80元是合理的预估。同样的统计,我们发现多重底的平均回收失土率是40%,而W底的情况则是25%~30%。

这样的统计结果,对图形迷的朋友来说,应该算是一项难能可贵可供上场时使用的参考资料。都送给你们啰!



胡立阳股票投资100招-第52招大涨之后的回档是“好”是“坏”

胡立阳股票投资100招-51大跌之后的反弹是真是假

投资人问:

我哥哥经常在家人面前吹嘘他在股市中是多么的风光,别人遇上股市大跌总是愁眉苦脸,他反而是笑容满面,因为每次都能利用大跌来抢到反弹,讲得我们都好羡慕。但是最近一个月来他变了,变得有些沉默寡言了!

原因是“抢”到了一波比一波跌得更低的“反弹”!我建议他来请教胡老师,他却老说什么“不好意思”,看样子还真是好面子呢!没办法啊,我只有一个哥哥,每天看到他总是垂头丧气的,实在于心不忍,也只有“代兄发问”了!可否赐教一招“抢反弹时如何自保”?哥哥必将感激不尽!

眼见你们兄弟情深,我怎能不助一臂之力呢?不过,在股市中“面子”并不重要,“里子”才最实际。股海浩瀚,玄机无边,我们都经常要向高手请教,你哥哥的脸皮怎么会这么薄呢?唉!

投资人常有的疑惑:昨日指数大跌,但今天又立刻止跌回升,究竟该不该及时抢个反弹呢?

处于这种情况,买或不买应取决于这个反弹是否内含足够的力道。如果能够同时符合下面两项价与量的标准,才算是带劲的反弹,不是陷阱,可以大胆进货:
(1)今日反弹的幅度,已经超过昨日跌幅的50%以上
(2)今日的成交量,较昨日成交量高出20%以上

如果不符合这两项条件,那么这个反弹,常只是挑逗,之后继续下跌的可能性很大。手中持股原本已不少的人,只有在完全符合上两项标准的反弹下,才可以放心地加买几手。

有一年,我应邀到洛杉矶的一个投资俱乐部演讲,当时股市正陷在长期低迷状态之中,凡是喜欢抢个跌深反弹的人都一次又一次地吃尽了苦头。演讲中我不止一次地 呼吁:“千万别在一波比一波跌得深的行情中抢反弹!”终于,有一位在加州大学任教的资深投资专家反问我:“Mr.Hu,大道理我们都懂,只想请问当置身于 反弹之中,你又是怎么知道行情会一波比一波跌得深呢?”

问得真好!我注意到,与会的嘉宾各个也都睁大了眼睛。

根据我对过去两次熊市中所出现接近50次的反弹案例来做了彻底的研究与比较,得出了一项重要的数据:大跌之后的反弹幅度不及跌幅之半,或反弹成交量未超过下跌日成交量的20%以上,那么这个反弹不但不容易持续,反而可以因此预知还有下一波的更低点。

Friday, February 8, 2013

Friday, February 1, 2013

Time to quit our job?

10 reasons why we should quit our job.

1) The middle class is dead. A few weeks ago I visited a friend of mine who manages a trillion dollars. No joke. A trillion. If I told you the name of the family he worked for you would say, “they have a trillion? Really?” But that’s what happens when $10 million compounds at 2 percent over 200 years. He said, “look out the windows.” We looked out at all the office buildings around us. “What do you see?” he said. “I don’t know.” “They’re empty! All the cubicles are empty. The middle class is being hollowed out.” And I took a closer look. Entire floors were dark. Or there were floors with one or two cubicles but the rest empty. “It’s all outsourced, or technology has taken over for the paper shufflers,” he said. “Not all the news is bad,” he said. “More people entered the upper class than ever last year.” But, he said, more people are temp staffers than ever. And that’s the new paradigm. The middle class has died. The American Dream never really existed. It was a marketing scam. And it was. The biggest provider of mortgages for the past 50 years, Fannie Mae, had as their slogan, “We make the American Dream come true.” It was just a marketing slogan all along. How many times have I cried because of a marketing slogan. And then they ruined it.

2) You’ve been replaced. Technology, outsourcing, a growing temp staffing industry, productivity efficiencies, have all replaced the middle class. The working class. Most jobs that existed 20 years ago aren’t needed now. Maybe they never were needed. The entire first decade of this century was spent with CEOs in their Park Avenue clubs crying through their cigars, “how are we going to fire all this dead weight?” 2008 finally gave them the chance. “It was the economy!” they said. The country has been out of a recession since 2009. Four years now. But the jobs have not come back. I asked many of these CEOs: did you just use that as an excuse to fire people, and they would wink and say, “let’s just leave it at that.” I’m on the board of directors of a temp staffing company with $600 million in revenues. I can see it happening across every sector of the economy. Everyone is getting fired. Everyone is toilet paper now. Flush.

3) Corporations don’t like you. The executive editor of a major news publication took me out to lunch to get advice on how to expand their website traffic. But before I could talk he started complaining to me: “Our top writers keep putting their twitter names in their posts and then when they get more followers they start asking for raises.” “What’s the problem?” I said. “Don’t you want writers that are popular and well-respected?” When I say a “major news publication” I am talking MAJOR. He said, “no, we want to be about the news. We don’t want anyone to be an individual star.” In other words, his main job was to destroy the career aspirations of his most talented people, the people who swore their loyalty to him, the people who worked 90 hours a week for him. If they only worked 30 hours a week and were slightly more mediocre he would’ve been happy. But he doesn’t like you. He wants you to stay in the hole and he will throw you a meal every once in awhile in exchange for your excrement. If anyone is a reporter out there and wants to message me privately I will tell you who it was. But basically, it’s all of your bosses. Every single one of them.

4) Money is not happiness. A common question during my Twitter Q&A, asked at least once a week, is “should I take the job I like or should I take the job that pays more money.” Leaving aside the question of “should I take a job at all,” let’s talk about money for a second. First, the science: studies show that an increase in salary only offers marginal to zero increase in “happiness” above a certain level. Why is this? Because of this basic fact: people spend what they make. If your salary increases $5,000 you spend an extra $2000 on features for your car, you have an affair, you buy a new computer, a better couch, a bigger TV, and then you ask, “where did all the money go?” Even though you needed none of the above now you need one more thing: another increase in your salary, so back to the corporate casino for one more try at the salary roulette wheel. I have never once seen anyone save the increase in their salary. In other words, don’t stay at the job for safe salary increases over time. That will never get you where you want – freedom from financial worry. Only free time, imagination, creativity, and an ability to disappear will help you deliver value that nobody ever delivered before in the history of mankind.

5) Count right now how many people can make a major decision that can ruin your life. I don’t like it when one person can make or break me. A boss. A publisher. A TV producer. A buyer of my company. At any one point I’ve had to kiss ass to all of the above. I hate it. I will never do it again. The way to avoid this is to diversify the things you are working on so no one person or customer or boss or client can make a decision that could make you rich or destroy you or fulfill your life’s dreams or crush them. I understand it can’t happen in a day. Start planning now how to create your own destiny instead of allowing people who don’t like you to control your destiny. When you do this count, make sure the number comes to over 20. Then when you spin the wheel the odds are on your side that a winning number comes up.

6) Is your job satisfying your needs? I will define “needs” the way I always do, via the four legs of what I call “the daily practice.” Are your physical needs, your emotional needs, your mental needs, and your spiritual needs being satisfied? The only time I’ve had a job that did was when I had to do little work so that I had time on the side to either write, or start a business, or have fun, or spend time with friends. The times when I haven’t is when I was working too hard, dealing with people I didn’t like, getting my creativity crushed over and over, and so on. When you are in those situations you need to plot out your exit strategy. Your hands are not made to type out memos. Or put paper through fax machines. Or hold a phone up while you talk to people you dislike. A hundred years from now your hands will rot like dust in your grave. You have to make wonderful use of those hands now. Kiss your hands so they can make magic. One can argue, “not everyone is entitled to have all of those needs satisfied at a job.” That’s true. But since we already know that the salary of a job won’t make you happy, you can easily modify lifestyle and work to at least satisfy more of your needs. And the more these needs are satisfied the more you will create the conditions for true abundance to come into your life. Your life is a house. Abundance is the roof. But the foundation and the plumbing need to be in there first or the roof will fall down, the house will be unlivable. You create the foundation by following the Daily Practice. I say this not because I am selling anything but because it worked for me every time my roof caved in. My house has been bombed, my home has been cold and blistering winds gave me frost bite, but I managed to rebuild. This is how I did it.

7) Your Retirement Plan is For Shit. I don’t care how much you set aside for your 401k. It’s over. The whole myth of savings is gone. Inflation will carve out the bulk of your 401k. And in order to cash in on that retirement plan you have to live for a really long time doing stuff you don’t like to do. And then suddenly you’re 80 and you’re living a reduced lifestyle in a cave and can barely keep warm at night. The only retirement plan is to Choose Yourself. To start a business or a platform or a lifestyle where you can put big chunks of money away. Some people can say, “well, I’m just not an entrepreneur.” This is not true. Everyone is an entrepreneur. The only skills you need to be an entrepreneur: an ability to fail, an ability to have ideas, to sell those ideas, to execute on those ideas, and to be persistent so even as you fail you learn and move onto the next adventure. Or be an entrepreneur at work. An “entre-ployee.” Take control of who you report to, what you do, what you create. Or start a business on the side. Deliver some value, any value, to anybody, to somebody, and watch that value compound into a career. What is your other choice? To stay at a job where the boss is trying to keep you down, will eventually replace you, will pay you only enough for you to survive, will rotate between compliments and insults so you stay like a fish caught on the bait as he reels you in. Is that your best other choice? You and I have the same 24 hours each day. Is that how you will spend yours?

8) Excuses. ”I’m too old.” “I’m not creative.” “I need the insurance.” “I have to raise my kids.” I was at a party once. A stunningly beautiful woman came up to me and said, “James, how are you!?” WHAT? Who are you? I said, “Hey! I’m doing well.” But I had no idea who I was talking to. Why would this woman be talking to me? I was too ugly. It took me a few minutes of fake conversation to figure out who she was. It turns out she was the frumpish-looking woman who had been fired six months earlier from the job we were at. She had cried as she packed up her cubicle when she was fired. She was out of shape, she looked about 30 years older than she was, and now her life was going to go from better to worse. Until…she realized that she was out of the zoo. In the George Lucas movie, THX-1138 (the name of the main character was “THX-1138″) everyone’s choices are removed and they all live underground because above ground is “radioactive.” Finally THX decides better to die above ground than suffer forever underground where he wasn’t allowed to love. He wasn’t free. He makes his way above ground, evading all the guards and police. And when he gets there, it’s sunny. Everyone above ground is beautiful, and they are waiting for him with open arms and kisses. The excuse “but it’s radioactive out there!” was just there to keep him down. “This is easy for you to say,” people say to me. “Some of us HAVE to do this!” The now-beautiful woman had to do it also. “What are you doing now?” I asked her. “Oh, you know,” she said. “Consulting.” But some people say, “I can’t just go out there and consult. What does that even mean?” And to that I answer, “Ok, I agree with you.” Who am I to argue? If someone insists they need to be in prison even though the door is unlocked then I am not going to argue. They are free to stay in prison.

9) It’s okay to take baby steps. ”I can’t just QUIT!” people say. “I have bills to pay.” I get it. Nobody is saying quit today. Before a human being runs a marathon they learn to crawl, then take baby steps, then walk, then run. Then exercise every day and stay healthy. Then run a marathon. Heck, what am I even talking about? I can’t run more than two miles without collapsing in agony. I am a wimp. Make the list right now. Every dream. I want to be a bestselling author. I want to reduce my material needs. I want to have freedom from many of the worries that I have succumbed to all my life. I want to be healthy. I want to help all of the people around me or the people who come into my life. I want everything I do to be a source of help to people. I want to only be around people I love, people who love me. I want to have time for myself. THESE ARE NOT GOALS. These are themes. Every day, what do I need to do to practice those themes? It starts the moment I wake up: “Who can I help today?” I ask the darkness when I open my eyes. “Who would you have me help today?” I’m a secret agent and I’m waiting for my mission. Ready to receive. This is how you take baby steps. This is how eventually you run towards freedom.

10) Abundance will never come from your job. Only stepping out of the prison imposed on you from your factory will allow you to achieve abundance. You can’t see it now. It’s hard to see the gardens when you are locked in jail. Abundance only comes when you are moving along your themes. When you are truly enhancing the lives of the people around you. When every day you wake up with that motive of enhancement. Enhance your family, your friends, your colleagues, your clients, potential customers, readers, people who you don’t even know yet but you would like to know. Become a beacon of enhancement and then, when the night is gray, all of the boats will move towards you, bringing their bountiful riches. – Don’t believe me. Stay with a boss that hates you. A job that is keeping you locked on a chain around your neck, tantalizing you with incremental increases in pay and job title. Stay in a culture that is quietly replacing the entire middle class. This is not anyone’s fault. These are the tectonic plates of economics destroying an entire suburban culture that has lasted for almost 100 years. Until you choose yourself for success, and all that choice entails, you will be locked into the prison. You will stare into your lover’s eyes looking for a sign that he or she loves you back. But slowly the lights will fade, the warmth of another body will grow cold, and you will go to sleep dreamless in the dark once again.

Taken from : http://www.jamesaltucher.com/

我的股票Portfolio 01.02.2013

2013年2月,我开始对马来西亚股票失去信心。
13届大选,无论任何一方赢都不是好的局面。我觉得未来几年马来西亚的情况无论任何一赢了都会陷入混乱的局面。。。。。。我开始害怕。
暂时不在买入任何股票,继续将投机股票出清,只保留孩子portfolio股票。

不过还是有东西我觉得可以投资。
1。大选后我觉得未来6个月内马来西亚房地产开始泡沫破裂,可以观察房地产市场动静。
2。买入Silver, hold 3年或以上。日本也开始大量印钱贬值,未来全世界的货币战争开始爆发。
3。如果你有钱和经验,可以买入Apple,我觉得它已经被低估了。USD500左右是很好买入价。
4。如果你觉得马股还会跌,考虑FKLI

港股将步入牛市三期

据香港信报报道,港股由去年11月初开始发力,至今恒指已直迫2011年上半年的高位24000点水平。“香港股神”曹仁超接受媒体专访时表示,港股牛市二期理论上已经完成,预料即将步入牛市三期,并直言:“港股今年上半年一定好,即使‘猫狗股’都会照升可也。”
曹仁超表示,港股于2008年见底后,若由2009年开始踏入牛市一期计算,港股于2009年10月左右已完成牛市一期,及后资金开始在不同板块炒 作,是为牛市二期,亦即慢牛期。随着恒指近日逼近24000点水平,预料牛市二期也将确认完结,朝着牛市三期,也就是什么都升(Everything Grows)的时期进发。
“猫狗股”照升
事实上,自去年12月开始,香港、美国及中国股市均显著向好。曹仁超指出,内地股市于去年12月才开始见底回升,故相信只是刚踏入牛市或牛市二期; 美国股市则在量化宽松货币政策下,继续支撑下去,但实际情况只可称为“好也好不了,坏也坏不了”,故资金已开始由美国流走,移至本港甚至欧洲国家;因此, 本港由去年12月至今,也一直录得资金流入。
正当美国财政悬崖忧虑暂时消失;加上资金继续由美国流向本港以至欧洲各国,恒指已直迫24000点水平。理论上,本港牛市二期也近乎完结。曹仁超相 信,港股已朝牛市三期进发。并谓踏入牛市三期后,愈落后的股份愈有炒作,故此时即使被称为“猫狗股”的四五六线股份,也会有炒作空间;值得留意的板块包括 工业股、资源股、钢铁股、铝业股及航运股等落后股。
不过,曹仁超也提醒,若以波浪理论去分析,目前恒指完成第二个浪,但相信第三个上升浪若能于今年4月或5月稍作回落,预料今年将出现第四及第五浪, 恒指目标为30000点;然而,若第三个升浪恒指未有回吐,而一直上升至9月左右,恒指目标则为27000点,但升浪将于暑假后完成,暑假后要开始留意, 恐防10月前将有大调整。无论如何,曹仁超形容,今年上半年港股就如处于安全区(Security Zone),大家照炒可也。
至于金价方面,曹仁超表示,每当金价回落至每盎斯1500至1600美元均可吸纳。他预期,下一次金价再起,将会是股市大泻之时,但也相信将是近年金价最后一次大升浪。